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Scotland Regional Discussion - 29/11/2013 ---->


Nick L

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Very sad news, thoughts go out to those affected by what is such a surreal accident. A routine shift at work, or a Friday night visit to a pub to see a band impacted by the completely unexpected. 

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Posted
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
  • Weather Preferences: appropriately seasonal
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire

Early to bed for me last night so didn't realise this had happened until this morning. What are the chances of something like that ever happening - let alone on a friday night when the pub was packed. I still don't think they've confirmed anything yet? And people still trapped? How awful. Thoughts and prayers go out to those effected. 

 

About 5C here and just cloudy. So is the colder spell towards the end of next week still on?

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Early to bed for me last night so didn't realise this had happened until this morning. What are the chances of something like that ever happening - let alone on a friday night when the pub was packed. I still don't think they've confirmed anything yet? And people still trapped? How awful. Thoughts and prayers go out to those effected. 

 

About 5C here and just cloudy. So is the colder spell towards the end of next week still on?

 

1 fatality, STV reported 3 last night which are most likely the helicopter, 32 in hospital but there are still people trapped in the pub.

Anyway, yeah, ECM snowiest, although the uppers are *only* -9/10C for most of the cold spell, but on the plus side it lasts 3+ days:

Posted Image

GFS is a bit shorter lived and perhaps drier, but with the potential for shortwave or polar low development due to the exceptionally cold uppers:

Posted Image

Posted Image

UKMO is only out up to +144 but it looks a bit more shortlived on it given the poor orientation of the trough, still very cold though with snow potential:

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl

Aye, very sad news re the helicopter. Worrying wider implications as it raises questions once again over Eurocopter. Very important to Scotland as >400,000 people a year fly in and out of Aberdeen Heliport, largely on Eurocopter Super Pumas, including many of my colleagues. Folks will recall a number of incidents with them over the years, including fatalities.

 

Anyway, all the best for St. Andrew's Day folks.

 

I'll raise a wee dram to all on the NW kilted thread and in memory of those lost in Glasgow last night.

Edited by scottish skier
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

not good to hear of a confirmed fatality from last night thoughts out to his/her family and friends.

 

sad news indeed and hopefully there aren't any more fatalities.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

*REMINDER*

 

right I am taking pics to see if I can get a winter video made

 

I will start with last year as this will allow people time to dig out pics of previous years so only looking for pics from last winter/spring 12/13 no others as things can get very confusing very quickly.

 

BuriedUnderSnow@hotmail.co.uk

 

should you have any pics plz send them to this address with

 

USERNAME USED ON THIS SITE

 

LOCATION (not your street or anything like that just town will be fine)

 

DATE OF WHEN EACH PICTURE WAS TAKEN

 

if you do decide to send me in pictures to add into the video I will

 

NEVER FORWARD YOUR E-MAIL ADDRESS FROM THIS ACCOUNT OR SAVE IT

 

ONLY EVER SEND A RESPONSE IF THERE IS A QUERY ABOUT A PICTURE

 

DELETE THE E-MAIL YOU SEND AS SOON AS I HAVE FINISHED MODIFYING THE PICS FOR THE VIDEO AND ARE HAPPY I DONT NEED THEM ANYMORE

 

many thanks BUS

 

P.S. for anyone seeing this for the first time I am doing like a winter walk through video of the winter 12/13 all I will be doing with your pics is putting your screen name your location and the date the pic was taken captioned in the pics and putting them in the video for future use in the forum so if you would like your snow pics in the video then please send them in.

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Just waded through the model thread and I advise, don't go in there... Just don't!  A waste of an hour of my life as it's full of pointless posts,  guesses, snipes etc. 

 

I think I should just avoid all models and threads for the next week and if I get snow falling on my head in that time I can enjoy the surprise.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

what a hellish day of models and who knows which one will be right.

 

now I have been watching developments to the west of Greenland lately due to something I had seen in the models and whether it will come true or not is still to be decided it all depends on what model is right and from the looks of it nobody knows which one is on the right path.

 

I wanted to do a post to point out something on the ECM to go along with what I have been watching just on off chance ECM is the model that is right and remember I said off chance.

 

now the area I want to point out I have put in arrows for which is the lows in the atlantic at 168hr on the 0z and 144hr on the 12z and if u notice the ECM has pulled these a little westward in the 12z which greatly improves our situation west of Greenland and with further developments in this area might and I say might give us the chance of seeing heights into Greenland.

 

remember its 168hr on 0z and 144hr on 12z

 

0z RUN

 

post-18233-0-31808200-1385838235_thumb.gpost-18233-0-21048100-1385838236_thumb.gpost-18233-0-75227400-1385838248_thumb.gpost-18233-0-67031700-1385838249_thumb.g

 

12z RUN

 

post-18233-0-92908300-1385838530_thumb.gpost-18233-0-33826000-1385838543_thumb.gpost-18233-0-16757000-1385838544_thumb.gpost-18233-0-23924200-1385838565_thumb.g

 

now obviously the high still drops in this run but if we can see a few more upgrades here which we have time for and if the ECM is on the right track we could see the possibility and only a possibility that we could get a block towards Greenland.

 

now obviously its still all up in the air and I only wanted to point this out incase the ECM is going the right direction but after today its anyones guess really.

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

E'ning. Things obviously not yet dead in the water then? ECM 12z stll sticking to its guns with its  cold snap for all it seems. According to Nick Sussex, the GFS 00z/12z have been discounted by NOAA in favour of ECM/UKMO. They intend to submit a report later which will be passed on by Nick.  Model watching certainly interesting at the moment if nothing else!Posted Image  Keep everything crossed guys 'cos it would be COLD!Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl

Been getting my fix of snaw on the webcams,so whatever the weather throws at us next weekend, i've seen some snow in Scandinavia! 

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

Could tell had not been a great day of models when only at page 4 on the thread!! BUS don't worry about emphasising that your theories are only a possibility!! Nobody here is going to say I told u so or hang u because you explain something here and it does not happen....Its not the MT....many thanks for taking the time to paint on charts really helps me and in sure many others learn...keep up the good work mate and would be fantastic if we end up with some GOB :)

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Could tell had not been a great day of models when only at page 4 on the thread!! BUS don't worry about emphasising that your theories are only a possibility!! Nobody here is going to say I told u so or hang u because you explain something here and it does not happen....Its not the MT....many thanks for taking the time to paint on charts really helps me and in sure many others learn...keep up the good work mate and would be fantastic if we end up with some GOB Posted Image

 

 

 

I know nobody here would do that (friendliest thread on here) just seen a few names I don't recognise and thought I would make it clear it was only a maybe thing.

 

yeah plenty of GOB would be great but don't think it will come off but its been really enjoyable picking something in the models and being able to follow it in to see if it gets there or comes close its the first time I have been able to do that and hopefully I can do it again.

 

one thing I have noticed today which might help the GOB thing is the GFS run on run has slowly been holding back the transfer of PV energy to Canada which you can see in the charts below 144hr on the 0z then 6hrs in on each run so its the same time it might be nothing but it might be the PV could be held back by heights getting into Greenland I don't know but I would like to think it is lol.

 

post-18233-0-14231500-1385853470_thumb.ppost-18233-0-67625200-1385853470_thumb.ppost-18233-0-07267400-1385853480_thumb.ppost-18233-0-54039600-1385853469_thumb.p

 

haven't checked the ECM yet for this will go have a look but its harder to judge on that with the 24hr jumps and only 2 runs.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

don't know how this would affect things concerning GOB as its a bit early in the pattern but if this can continue through might help also.

 

the fax charts at 3 days out have been nudging the east coast of America low slowly west and I wonder if this will continue moving things west which might help for Greenland

 

post-18233-0-13554600-1385854336_thumb.gpost-18233-0-36815900-1385854328_thumb.gpost-18233-0-85791200-1385854327_thumb.g

 

cant check the rest only saw this as the 0z 84hr chart and yesterdays 96hr chart were left on earlier

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

I have one little theory which in the world of weather I don't know if it would work the same but I think it should.

 

what goes down must go up as well.

 

like the equal and opposite reaction thing.

 

the cold uppers we are seeing on the northerly are rare and if they come off then surely they would cause an equal push of warm air or WAA upwards and I think the models might be trying to resolve first if the cold uppers are right and now they are trying to sort out the reaction and getting to grips with just how much to push back north.

 

probably wrong but sounded kind of sensible in my head Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

Pearson airport Toronto has recorded its coldest November since 1996....they went on to have 175cm of snow that winter....not sure how that helps your thoughts BUS but I thought it was interesting :)

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

I have one little theory which in the world of weather I don't know if it would work the same but I think it should.

 

what goes down must go up as well.

 

like the equal and opposite reaction thing.

 

the cold uppers we are seeing on the northerly are rare and if they come off then surely they would cause an equal push of warm air or WAA upwards and I think the models might be trying to resolve first if the cold uppers are right and now they are trying to sort out the reaction and getting to grips with just how much to push back north.

 

probably wrong but sounded kind of sensible in my head Posted Image

Many do believe the models have a problem developing pattern changes in complex winter situations which is not surprising....it is hard to look at anything beyond 3-4 days just now as there is little cross model agreement but fun to look
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Many do believe the models have a problem developing pattern changes in complex winter situations which is not surprising....it is hard to look at anything beyond 3-4 days just now as there is little cross model agreement but fun to look

 

the models are doing my nut in the now not being able to sort anything out.

 

yeah its fun watching them in the MT all going mental about the northerly and not noticing the other little things the models are doing.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

heres one to ponder over

 

yesterdays ECM 12z 168hr and todays ECM 12z 144hr so same time

 

things to consider

 

1)  less transfer of PV energy going to Canada

 

2)  slightly higher heights over Greenland

 

3)  better looking around western Greenland

 

4) ridge in the Atlantic tilted at a better angle

 

post-18233-0-99729900-1385862425_thumb.gpost-18233-0-17931100-1385862425_thumb.g

 

might also possibly consider Aleutian ridge easing as well incase that's a factor

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

great post LS Posted Image

 

and to add a little more excitement ECM precipitation charts for Thursday

 

post-18233-0-79910600-1385867702_thumb.ppost-18233-0-04248500-1385867704_thumb.ppost-18233-0-64839700-1385867704_thumb.ppost-18233-0-60521900-1385867705_thumb.p Posted Image

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

some decent looking stuff coming in already on the NAE on Monday night from the north west

 

post-18233-0-60714200-1385872642_thumb.gpost-18233-0-46173200-1385872658_thumb.gpost-18233-0-91360300-1385872658_thumb.g

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Morning..(again!) UKMO 144 looking chilly? GFS still too complicated for me regarding the seaboard lows, but if I am right, there appears to be a slight improvement with regards to the cold lasting a bit longer than the 18z? Reading the MOD, I didn't realise that Meto was concerned about a '53 type storm surge come Friday? That would indeed be the extreme, but Ian Ferguson mentioned his concern.

fergieweather, on 01 Dec 2013 - 00:03, said:Posted Image

Yes Fri AM. Some real concerns being expressed and very much focus of attention. Note how a few EC members also run polar low south at same time off W Norway and exacerbate issue if reality as this critical to high wind potential. Shades of '53 re set-up. Expect more on this tomorrow am.

-

 

 

 Posted Image

Edited by Blitzen
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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Copied from MOD re UKMO:

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Anyone looking at the UKMO this morning who remembers the debate about yesterdays 12Z will be intrigued to see that the UKMO has dropped the idea of the 75% of energy over the top. We now have a more uprighted  Atlantic trough and deeper cold down the UK as a result.post-1989-0-33354700-1385876737_thumb.gi

 

Edited by Blitzen
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Posted
  • Location: Perth (Huntingtowerfield, 3 miles West) asl 0m
  • Weather Preferences: A foggy and frosty morning with newly fallen pristine snow - Paradise!
  • Location: Perth (Huntingtowerfield, 3 miles West) asl 0m

Snowy Owl, I watch the Norway webcams too Posted Image

I prefer Finland personally gals:

 

http://alk.tiehallinto.fi/alk/kelikamerat/kelikamerat_5.html

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