scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - 29/11/2013 ---->

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

 

December starting where November left off with more sunshine, 4c here at the moment.

 

I'm not a big model follower as I prefer to focus on the weather happening in the here and now but on current evidence it looks like a relatively short lived but sharp cold spell can be expected at the end of the week. GFS has -13c uppers and 511 dam in the 0z run for Friday (at Leuchars). Even if that moderates a bit it will still be chilly. Chances of snow here are slim (as ever!) with a north westerly flow, unless there's some sort of embedded trough. Interesting few days ahead though! 

[Highland Snow]

Minimum last night +3.4C from yesterday's Maximum of 7.1C.

[snowy owl]

Snowy Owl, I watch the Norway webcams too

It's getting bad when we have to watch snow on the webcams lol!

 

Time to make a christmas cake, planning to make a snow scene on it too!

[snowy owl]

I prefer Finland personally gals:

 

http://alk.tiehallinto.fi/alk/kelikamerat/kelikamerat_5.html

Love these ones too

 

Very interesting changes to some of the charts this morning, looking more promising for end of this week coming. Great stuff.

[lorenzo]

This thread is like a 24 hour garage these days, folks up at all hours posting !! Good stuff.

 

Winter arriving right on queue, some great cold charts on offer today. 

 

Yes, just over Iceland that IS a -17 850hPa temp reading !!

 

Looking higher up solid -40 profile, old school colours on the meteogroup one, fits well just looks frozen.

 

Dust off the satellites and radar, a real Polar Low watch  / opportunity!!

 

We have a couple of things to trust, 1) the models are doing very well at picking up on these Northerly hits from a decent range, they wobble here and there en route, but the trend is doing very well at verification.

 

This is going to feel bitingly cold.

 

Edit - add temp chart

 

This from the 00z GFS, 06z not at the weekend yet, a proper swathe of cold right down into the continent.. which is good for other potential set ups that shall not be named for fear of spooking them...

 

 

 

 

Edited December 1, 2013 by lorenzo

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Hello folks, hope you don't mind me popping in here but I find your forum more informative than the model thread, thanks from your cousins in the Irish thread

[Highland Snow]

Hello folks, hope you don't mind me popping in here but I find your forum more informative than the model thread, thanks from your cousins in the Irish thread

 

Welcome from your Scottish cousins Pomeroysnow in "Tyrone among the bushes".

 

You guys and especially the Sperrins in Co Londonderry should do VERY well next weekend, I will wish I were back living in Tobermore in the great Winters of my childhood there in the '60's!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

You'll go far with posts like this

I like the cut of your gibb

 

Welcome from your Scottish cousins Pomeroysnow in "Tyrone among the bushes".

 

You guys and especially the Sperrins in Co Londonderry should do VERY well next weekend, I will wish I were back living in Tobermore in the great Winters of my childhood there in the '60's!

I haven't heard Tyrone among the bushes in years!! - there is a great wee shop in Tobermore that does fantastic sausage rolls - I will post some over if you want - a wee taste of back home

[Bullseye]

When was last time we had a northerly as brutal as this! 

 

Any of the previous 4 years have northerly like this? (of course if all goes to plan)

[Highland Snow]

I like the cut of your gibb

 

I haven't heard Tyrone among the bushes in years!! - there is a great wee shop in Tobermore that does fantastic sausage rolls - I will post some over if you want - a wee taste of back home

 

Cookstown sausage rolls are still the best I have ever tasted - my mouth is watering just thinking about them Pomeroysnow.

 

[LomondSnowstorm]

When was last time we had a northerly as brutal as this!  Any of the previous 4 years have northerly like this? (of course if all goes to plan)

December 2010 was the closest, but even it wasn't quite as potent as many of the current runs , particularly UKMO which has -14C uppers north of the Grampians.

[Hairy Celt]

I prefer Finland personally gals:

 

http://alk.tiehallinto.fi/alk/kelikamerat/kelikamerat_5.html

I prefer Finnish girls personally

 

Excellent link, cheers!

[Highland Snow]

I prefer Finnish girls personally

 

Excellent link, cheers!

Trust you to get the wrong end of the stick Hairy Celt. Gulp, dont analyse that last sentence to closely or more misunderstandings may ensue!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Cookstown sausage rolls are still the best I have ever tasted - my mouth is watering just thinking about them Pomeroysnow.

 

In between two slices of buttered bread and brown sauce hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

 

Who says us celts don't know how to fine dine pfftt

[LomondSnowstorm]

First time I've seen this within such short range - there's a run which brings sub -15C uppers to Shetland:

Most runs (as many as 15 I'd say at some point in the run) give sub -10C uppers to central Scotland:

 

[Northernlights]

December 2010 was the closest, but even it wasn't quite as potent as many of the current runs , particularly UKMO which has -14C uppers north of the Grampians.

Perhaps with the one ingredient missing in this area from  the recent colder winters that of blowing drifting snow.

[Bullseye]

With -12 uppers affecting far south as Glasgow, could the result be that Glasgow still wont see any snow as BBC graph show? Do central belt do well in Northerly winds?

First time I've seen this within such short range - there's a run which brings sub -15C uppers to Shetland:

Most runs (as many as 15 I'd say at some point in the run) give sub -10C uppers to central Scotland:

 

[Highland Snow]

With -12 uppers affecting far south as Glasgow, could the result be that Glasgow still wont see any snow as BBC graph show? Do central belt do well in Northerly winds?

!

It's a real possibility Bullseye as the greedy Grampians grab everything!

[Hawesy]

Ha ha, the GFS 6z is actually an upgrade, bringing 506 dam and -13c 850s to NE Fife. That would remove any threat of marginality even for me ;-) Of course it will more than likely be dry though - I've lived through enough snowless northerlies in the Central Belt to resist the urge to get my hopes up.

 

Beautiful first day of December: long sunny spells and 11c under blue skies, the sea as calm as I've seen it. 

[Harve]

Given December's only just started and a warm summer/autumn has meant warm seas, coupled with freezing uppers, surely this is one of the best times for snowmageddon for those in the line of convection?

[lorenzo]

Yep Hawesy. I think the real attraction with this is the exceptional depth of the cold.  For those of us in the Central Belt. The well advertised wishbone effect. WE can hope for a trough to develop in the flow and the faxes will be getting closely scrutinised, as will the NW coastline of Norway, Polar Low spawning grounds.

 

Raided the GFS 06z run on NetWx for some of the charts now it has decided to join in the fun as Meto. Winter begins.

 

Thursday mid-day sees the first advances of cold air making its way south.

 

Before the above wishbone Northerly becomes apparent.

 

Can't resist posting up these Potential Equivalent charts... Properly Arctic.

 

850 hPa temps are just incredible, sorry I may be a stuck record by midweek !

 

No surprises then with the 0 degree Isotherm, anything falling will be snow. Friday morning minimum temps are brutal.

 

Closer up on the snow risk chart for Scotland, the Northerly signature is clear.

 

So, whilst we are hoping for another couple of features to pop up to provide interest for all, the real feature here will be the clean Arctic hit of air. 

 

[Highland Snow]

A most beautiful Advent Sunday it has been with a maximum of 9.8C.

[lorenzo]

Update from fergieweather on snow probabilities & Polar Lows, which by the time you get through the thread to find, will either be in a previous thread or buried in an avalanche, no pun intended, of other posts.

 

10-20cm possible in places, blizzards & drifting. It had me at 10cm... 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78631-model-output-discussion-30th-november-onwards/page-30#entry2850785

 

Well deserved one of these..

 

To add, post on the previously mentioned Polar Low threat, W. Norway. This referred to as the Dalmatian Plot.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78631-model-output-discussion-30th-november-onwards/page-32#entry2850835

 

Some great posts from Fergie today explaining why the met see ECM too amplified and therefore blend in GEM and GFS.

 

What a period of model watching we have coming up. 12z will be pantomime this evening, going to miss them by being at a real Pantomime!

Edited December 1, 2013 by lorenzo

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hmm, I think that, while the wishbone effect will be in operation, it really depends how close we can keep the low. If it drifts eastwards too quickly after the cold front the convective potential will be reduced. However, if we can keep the instability with those deep cold uppers (particularly with sub -40C 500hpa temperatures) then I'd be surprised if we didn't all see at least some of the white stuff with such a massive temperature gradient. We've all seen our fair share of disappointing northerlies but there's a big difference between -8C and -13C uppers so it will certainly be an interesting one to watch.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Update from fergieweather on snow probabilities & Polar Lows, which by the time you get through the thread to find, will either be in a previous thread or buried in an avalanche, no pun intended, of other posts.

 

10-20cm possible in places, blizzards & drifting. It had me at 10cm... 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78631-model-output-discussion-30th-november-onwards/page-30#entry2850785

 

Well deserved one of these..

 

Hmm, very interesting, almost as interesting as the fact that they're now able to model these features so far out rather than just the possibility of them. In that kind of airstream I'd say a polar low is quite likely and moreso for the east side rather than the west side of Britain. Interesting that he mentions dry inland 'south of the Scottish border'. The implication of what that means inland north of the border is particularly interesting, especially when considering maxima on Friday are progged at no more than 0-1C currently.

Edited December 1, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm