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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 03/12/13


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Posted
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire

fergieweather, on 03 Dec 2013 - 16:14, said:

UKMO view (just chatted with them) remains as before: i.e. for Scandinavian block to establish after next week's milder (for some, notably so) phase and a progressively colder return from SE/E thereafter.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

NW watch for Thursdays winds:

 

Alert details: 
 
A deep area of low pressure moving east close to northern Scotland on Thursday will introduce gale to severe gale force westerly or northwesterly winds across northern areas during the morning, along with a squally band of rain moving southwards. Gusts of 60-70mph are likely across Scotland, the north coast of Northern Ireland, northern and eastern England, with gusts in excess of 70mph possible across exposed hills and coasts in the northeast. 
 
As winds veer northerly during Thursday afternoon, much colder arctic air will follow, so the rain band will turn increasingly to sleet and snow on its northern edge, followed by snow showers packing in across northern areas towards evening and overnight. Snow showers will be most frequent across northern Scotland and also across eastern and western coasts in the north that are exposed to the northerly wind. Accumulations of 2-5cm are possible at lower elevations from snow showers, while higher ground may receive as much as 10-15cm.

 

 

More info here:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=weather-alerts;reg=6;sess=

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Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex

fergieweather, on 03 Dec 2013 - 16:14, said:

UKMO view (just chatted with them) remains as before: i.e. for Scandinavian block to establish after next week's milder (for some, notably so) phase and a progressively colder return from SE/E thereafter.

Good news that, as that sounds quite bullish coming from the MO so hopefully their super computers are seeing something significant.

 

I must admit this weeks northerly was never of great interest as, I may well be wrong here, I can't ever remember seeing much from one.

 

An easterly, however........Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Evening all

CFS time

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

 

Posted Image

Precipitation - (-1) - Pretty dry some weak fronts

Temperature - (-2) - Turning very cold with south easterly winds (CFS showing ice days)

3 out of the last 4 runs observed are showing heights to the north east over Christmas. Trend???

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

Well it feels a bit colder out now, but not sure if it is colder or just my full on lurg making it seem that way ( had to nip out for some max cold stuff as I need to keep working during the day, not taken a day off work in years ) If I write more pap than normal on here I blame the cold (no it is not man flu).

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

Evening all. Posted Image

Cloudy dross here again; basically default winter weather imho.

Looking forward to the clearance tomorrow, then an (admittedly FI) easterly in a few days time?

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme or intense !
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK

Well it feels a bit colder out now, 

 

I was thinking the same and wondered if it might just be me being tired and feeling a bit under the weather but just checked the weather station and it's only 5 deg c so maybe time to crank the heating up a bit !!  

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Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

I was thinking the same and wondered if it might just be me being tired and feeling a bit under the weather but just checked the weather station and it's only 5 deg c so maybe time to crank the heating up a bit !!  

Well mine is on and rather warm than not :) hope your not falling for the lurg too.

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Posted
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Storms and epic cold snowy winters
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL

Evening All.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

post-11193-0-02146800-1386095636_thumb.j (DO NOT GO IN MODEL THREADpost-11193-0-52582300-1386095680_thumb.j

 

 

 

 

                                                                           post-11193-0-17240800-1386095768_thumb.j

 

 

 

 

                                                                       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Jason T
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Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

Good news that the A14 Toll has been dropped, just wonder if the new promise of an upgrade will happen, just like the Olney by-pass that has been promised in one shape or form for decades but nothing yet to fix the A509.

Edited by Jax
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Not much more I can say after witnessing today's output.

 

Oh how apt.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76235-model-banter-moans-and-ramps/?p=2852620

 

See you all in mid-December. Posted Image  Luckily in fluid situations such as that of our good earth's climate, things rarely remain the same for long but................... we're going to have to be mighty patient.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme or intense !
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK

..... hope your not falling for the lurg too.

 

who's Lurg ? ....anyway I'm well and truly spoken for already  Posted Image

 

I think mine is just weather related really, hope you feel better soon from your 'it's not man flu' though Jason Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Work Haverhill Suffolk. Live in Thurrock
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Cold.
  • Location: Work Haverhill Suffolk. Live in Thurrock

Evening all. A grey and dull day here today.

It seems after Ian's METO update, the mood has flattened just like today's 12z in the MAD thread.

I'm really excited though, only 13 more sleeps, then I'm off to take the family to Lapland for a week. I think me and Mrs LeighD are more excited than the children.

Anyway all eyes down for tonight's 18z and JP's ramp charts

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme or intense !
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK

And today's Daily Excess headlines...90mph polar winds to blast UK......Posted Image

Yes, but is there a puzzle pull out section ?
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

And today's Daily Excess headlines...90mph polar winds to blast UK......Posted Image

They are right though this time, some runs have the winds stronger than that. They should always specify they mean up north though.

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent

They are right though this time, some runs have the winds stronger than that. They should always specify they mean up north though.

If they state an area its even less likely to be correctPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

this is when sticking to the 144 time range is important

 

when i see this

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

and this

 

Posted Image

 

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html

 

i would be surprised to see the outlook shown

 

also when i tried to check gfs jet projection i got this

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=5

 

Posted Image

 

so not sure whether there is something wrong with gfs or meteoceil

 

 

i will await the ecm ensembles for london later to see where the run fits with the ensembles

 

 

gfs ensembles

 

Posted Image

 

fi on the 7th as a big spread there so no point going further

 

 

so i think expect some big model swings coming up Posted ImagePosted Image

 

 

back later with the fax update and 18z

 

and ensembles

 

oh and the odd ramp as well Posted Image

Edited by john pike
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Posted
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Storms and epic cold snowy winters
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL

Lovely pic this, Not 1 but 2 active Volcanoes Together, This will please JP, They play a fundamental part in global weather as well as allowing the planet to vent.

 

https://twitter.com/AstroIllini/status/407629101566947328/photo/1

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

hi jason

 

nice pic

 

i know these are on-going at present and are fascinating Posted Image

 

i wonder what the pub run has in store for us tonightPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Storms and epic cold snowy winters
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL

hi jason

 

nice pic

 

i know these are on-going at present and are fascinating Posted Image

 

i wonder what the pub run has in store for us tonightPosted Image

 

 

Blimey Jp the way it's all being modelled at the moment, We will be having Barbados temps come Saturday. I don't know JP, Just have this Feeling all is not correct and that a big change is just going to turn up.Posted Image  Very frustrating though.Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

this is when sticking to the 144 time range is important

 

when i see this

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

and this

 

Posted Image

 

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html

 

i would be surprised to see the outlook shown

 

also when i tried to check gfs jet projection i got this

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=5

 

Posted Image

 

so not sure whether there is something wrong with gfs or meteoceil

 

 

i will await the ecm ensembles for london later to see where the run fits with the ensembles

 

 

gfs ensembles

 

Posted Image

 

fi on the 7th as a big spread there so no point going further

 

 

so i think expect some big model swings coming up Posted ImagePosted Image

 

 

back later with the fax update and 18z

 

and ensembles

 

oh and the odd ramp as well Posted Image

Looks like the jet is going south but the GFS says, no that's wrong it never goes that low, let's force it back north sharpish and hope no one notices.

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

I saw the 12z ECM update from this eve and imagined it'd cause consternation on the Mod Thread. :lol: I've not looked there since. :)

I do worry about the wind effects from Thursday's storm. Like I said yesterday, I think it could be really nasty in Denmark and the Baltic states (and Poland too) apart from how it'll affect NE Britain. Spring tides not ideal now either. :(

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Posted
  • Location: Work Haverhill Suffolk. Live in Thurrock
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Cold.
  • Location: Work Haverhill Suffolk. Live in Thurrock

I saw the 12z ECM update from this eve and imagined it'd cause consternation on the Mod Thread. :lol: I've not looked there since. :)I do worry about the wind effects from Thursday's storm. Like I said yesterday, I think it could be really nasty in Denmark and the Baltic states (and Poland too) apart from how it'll affect NE Britain. Spring tides not ideal now either. :(

Agree with you about the wind Steve. As I said on here after the 'St Jude's' storm. Wind is an invisible killer. I just hope everyone who is going to be affected by it, make the necessary precautions, and not make light of it...
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