South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 03/12/13

[john pike]

fax update

 

tonight

 

look outside

 

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tomorrow

 

a north westerly flow

 

temps

 

chilly around 8 degrees

 

maybe a shade lower in the tod area

 

rainfall

 

 

dry to late morning

 

then drizzly murk around until mid pm

 

another yukky day

 

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wednesday night

 

a more noticeable north west flow

 

temps

 

cold and a frost likely

 

no rain but fog possible

 

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thursday

 

a strong and bitterly cold north west flow ( and that is cold)

 

temps

 

should hit 8-10 degrees

 

will not feel it though

 

rain

 

staying dry until evening

 

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thursday night

 

a strong northerly wind but not as strong as thursday

 

temps

 

the bitter air arrives around midnight

 

rainfall-snow

 

looks like rain from around early evening

 

then as the cold air digs in around midnight we should see these showers turn quite wintry

 

not saying how much etc but looks like more lamp post watch rather than laying

 

clears around 4-5 am then ice could be a risk

 

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friday

 

still under a cold north westerly

 

temps

 

looks a cold day today

 

fog am but clearing up by lunch and we may see some sun

 

temps around 4-6 degrees  lower ifcloud persists

 

rain

 

 

none

 

back soon with the rest

[john pike]

saturday

 

a weak westerly flow

 

temps

 

around 6-8 degrees

 

looks dry but fog and cloud likely especially south coastal areas

 

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saturday night

 

cold with frost a possibility

 

dry and fog patches again likely

 

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sunday to follow

[john pike]

sunday

 

a weak westerly flow

 

temps

 

somewhere around 8 degrees

 

expect cloudcover and misty conditions am

 

no rain expected

 

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144 ukmo

a weak west to north west flow

 

temps between 8-10 degrees

 

the higher if you see some sun

 

long way out etc etc 

[Snowangel-MK]

And today's Daily Excess headlines...90mph polar winds to blast UK......

Daily Star have gone one step further with a VLRF (very long range forecast).....

[alexisj9]

Daily Star have gone one step further with a VLRF (very long range forecast).....

image.jpg

Blimey. How ridicules can these articles get.

[blackprince]

Daily Star have gone one step further with a VLRF (very long range forecast).....

image.jpg

Well thats a prediction which one you going with MK?  8 inches at the end of the week or 30 years of lamp post watching.....  Hey I expect a lot of us may struggle with the later, age being one problem and the local council doing away with lamp posts due to cuts being the other

[john pike]

hi mk

 

 

ecm ensembles

 

ecm right at the top of the ensembles

 

there are a lot of cold ones there

 

after the 12th i think ecm met gfs down the pub

 

the yellow mean temps are COLDER than yesterday

 

wind

 

 

rain

 

a little on the 5th

 

other than that very dry

 

so at present i would say lets see what happens tomorrow

Edited December 3, 2013 by john pike

[Iceni]

Evening all. A grey and dull day here today.It seems after Ian's METO update, the mood has flattened just like today's 12z in the MAD thread.I'm really excited though, only 13 more sleeps, then I'm off to take the family to Lapland for a week. I think me and Mrs LeighD are more excited than the children.Anyway all eyes down for tonight's 18z and JP's ramp charts

 

 

Here are their traffic cams.... ooh I'm so jealous!

 

http://www2.liikennevirasto.fi/alk/english/kelikamerat/kelikamerat_5.html

 

What are the forecasts for seeing the Northern Lights?

 

This is my dream: Northern Lights, snow everywhere and listening to wild wolves howling all around our cosy log cabin.

[Snowangel-MK]

Well thats a prediction which one you going with MK?  8 inches at the end of the week or 30 years of lamp post watching.....  Hey I expect a lot of us may struggle with the later, age being one problem and the local council doing away with lamp posts due to cuts being the other

I think my Daily Mirror pull out puzzle section will last longer than the cold snap - not that I was expecting 8 inches anyway but I'm not sure i will be up to either in 30 years even if I'm still alive by then !

[john pike]

note to self

 

stop talking to reporters

[alexisj9]

note to self

 

stop talking to reporters

Bit difficult, I think some of them read this site, judging by some recent quotes in the papers.

[HammerJack]

Here are their traffic cams.... ooh I'm so jealous! http://www2.liikennevirasto.fi/alk/english/kelikamerat/kelikamerat_5.html What are the forecasts for seeing the Northern Lights? This is my dream: Northern Lights, snow everywhere and listening to wild wolves howling all around our cosy log cabin.

Thanks so much for that link. Just looked at where we are going, and there is a good covering already . I really hope we see the northern lights... I going to have my proper camera all ready for this trip. If we are lucky enough to see them, I will take plenty of pics and post them on here for all to enjoy.

[blackprince]

note to self

 

stop talking to reporters

Either that John or explain in simple English what a ramp is

[Croydondazz]

Daily Star have gone one step further with a VLRF (very long range forecast).....

image.jpg

How liberal I think the express are saying 60 years

[john pike]

here are some charts which may or may not happen

 

if your from the press

 

bugger off

 

for us

 

heres a ramp

 

 

 

Edited December 3, 2013 by john pike

[john pike]

heres another chart that is a ramp that will probably be different tomorrow

 

for us

 

wow

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=19&mode=1&carte=0

 

no.19 please

[john pike]

and

 

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=16&mode=1&carte=0

 

no.16 isnt too bad either

[john pike]

gfs 18z ensembles

 

 

i cannot believe i am calling fi on the 7th

 

these looks very dry

 

the main gfs run again right at the warm end of the runs

 

basically lets see what tomorrow shows

[john pike]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C0xJmaDnVHY

 

heres my biggest ramp tonight

 

goodnight all

[Iceni]

Thanks so much for that link. Just looked at where we are going, and there is a good covering already . I really hope we see the northern lights... I going to have my proper camera all ready for this trip. If we are lucky enough to see them, I will take plenty of pics and post them on here for all to enjoy.

 

 

THIS is what I call a blizzard...

 

http://www2.liikennevirasto.fi/alk/kelikamerat/C1453507040536.jpg?random=1386128434

[Jason T]

Good Morning All.

 

 Overcast  

7°C

Feels Like: 4° Wind Chill: 4°   Ceiling: 4300 Heat Index: 7°   Visibility: 5mi Dew Point: 4°   Wind: 12mph Humidity: 81%   Direction: 250° (WSW) Pressure: 30.27"   Gusts: NA

[Jason T]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C0xJmaDnVHY

 

heres my biggest ramp tonight

 

goodnight all

 

 

That reminds me of all the winter model output currently JP, Big Highs ,Deep lows, and that's self esteem ,Mind you getting to the top of that ride would make me..... 

[Steve C]

Morning all.

Pretty non descript here at the moment. Looking forward to sunshine after lunch.

Just looking at the ECM charts at days 9 and 10. Quite interesting to see a cold plunge in NE Europe and signs that the local high pressure might be headed northeast? I wonder if this is what Ian Ferguson is referring to on the MDT, with regards to the possible easterly in (from) mid month?

[Captain Shortwave]

Morning, I heard weather might happen today. Hasn't happened yet though as it's cloudy again

[Charltonkerry]

Morning, depressed from dirty Dartford reporting in, haven't got any time today as got up late due to road works on m25 last night after the game we lost. Off to 'Arlow office today for yet more meetings, be nice to actually do some work one day, apart from the football yesterday was a success, the proposed new project will be a challenge to put it mildly, got no idea how to design the required air movement, but at least its mainly chill at 2c with a little -25c work which I enjoy the most, its will mean I can guarantee snow next Christmas in that little piece of Hampshire (that assume something little Herbert leaves the door to the freezer open, they normally do as they think it is funny).

So it's not only depressed, but, dull and dreary in dirty Dartford and also frost free.