Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14


phil nw.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Really looking forward to potentially the next couple of weeks, bring on the strong Bartlett pressure Posted Image I'm sure it will be a welcome relief to elderly people too.

 

Well i'm taken aback by how un-wintry the charts look. All those oranges and reds surging northwards. I fancy more of those Spring bulbs will have emerged by Christmas.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Madden really does take the mick he is now spouting that from the 23rd of dec we will see a easterly with heavy widespread snowfall. Can't wait to see his excuse when that also fails to meterialise abit like his November heavy snow that never happened. How can people pay for his rubbish.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire

Mild rampers you either love em or hate them depending on the time of year!! LOL

i can't understand how a supposed weather fan doesn't get excited by the prospect of snow in winter or looking at good snowy synoptics on the models, i can understand them not liking cold as cold is not pleasant, but why prefer a typical bog standard, bland, mediocre grey mild day in winter to a blizzard which is rare as hen's teeth????

Edited by Tony27
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

i can't understand how a supposed weather fan doesn't get excited by the prospect of snow in winter or looking at good snowy synoptics on the models, i can understand them not liking cold as cold is not pleasant, but why prefer a typical bog standard, bland, mediocre grey mild day in winter to a blizzard which is rare as hen's teeth????

 

I certainly don't, I prefer mild dry days though to endless rain, especially days with a southerly jet, rainbands 2°C, cheshire gap streamers, heavy rain at 2°C, i only live at 104m asl in the south, snow will not happen for me off cold zonality

 

so i certainly not excited by the models, but at least it's looking mostly dry

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

I have a reason to be disappointed when Northern Texas looks like this.

 

Posted Image

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Sussex (DfL)
  • Weather Preferences: Diversity!
  • Location: East Sussex (DfL)

Fear not, fellow coldies!  A certain Express-friendly forecaster has come to our rescue with an email this morning:

 

"When will the major cold and snow arrive for the UK & IRELAND?

 

The models will begin to firm up on a significant area of high pressure on the continent, which should trigger a period of significant cold (easterly) and snow for in or around the 23rd - 30th December (dates as originally suggested in April 2013)."

 

Using cunning and daring, I somehow managed to gain access to his top-secret numerical prediction system and here, for the first time, is a glimpse of some of that amazing output for the coming few weeks:

 

 

Is that the famed Beasterly I can see?

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

Pretty uninspiring charts on offer for coldies right now. If only these charts would show up in summer, would be BBQ heaven! Have to laugh at some of the posts on the mod thread 'writing off' the rest of this month or even most of the winter. Seriously? We have just entered winter. Anything can happen.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Some of this invented 'model' terminology such as 'sceuro' really gets on my pip!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Skegness,lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Heat thundersnow heatwaves and freezing fog
  • Location: Skegness,lincolnshire

Pretty uninspiring charts on offer for coldies right now. If only these charts would show up in summer, would be BBQ heaven! Have to laugh at some of the posts on the mod thread 'writing off' the rest of this month or even most of the winter. Seriously? We have just entered winter. Anything can happen.

Yes its always the same in winter we get great charts for summer and vise versa im not bothered at min like you said weve just entered winter
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Sussex (DfL)
  • Weather Preferences: Diversity!
  • Location: East Sussex (DfL)

Pretty uninspiring charts on offer for coldies right now. If only these charts would show up in summer, would be BBQ heaven! Have to laugh at some of the posts on the mod thread 'writing off' the rest of this month or even most of the winter. Seriously? We have just entered winter. Anything can happen.

 

This is my take on the rather negative mood of the model discussion thread:

 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Not much rain on 06Z, December so not a bad run, still think GFS is underplaying the Atlantic, expect 12Z to be more progressive and high pressure miles to our east

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl

Got a genuine question which I thought I'd better ask in here.

 

I've just read in the Model Output thread that some model accuracy can now be reasonably expected up to T216. However, it wasn't explained why this is possible.

 

The goal posts seem to move constantly on what level of accuracy there is.

 

Will be interested to know why it's possible right now yet during some weeks, it's suggested we don't go past T72...or even earlier.

 

This is a genuine query as it might help me understand the Model thread a bit better when I read through...all a learning process! (Been on this site a few years now...and still feel that there is still so so much to learn!)

 

Edit: As I post, someone's just explained it. So in this kind of weather pattern...changes can have little impact on our weather? Yet during more active weather...such as last Thursday's failed northerly...small changes can make all the difference? (I use the term failed with an IMBY perspective!)

 

(want to clear this up in here...as don't want to send that thread off on a tangent...hope you can understand my confusion!)

Edited by Gord
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bolton, Lancashire
  • Location: Bolton, Lancashire

Got a genuine question which I thought I'd better ask in here. I've just read in the Model Output thread that some model accuracy can now be reasonably expected up to T216. However, it wasn't explained why this is possible. The goal posts seem to move constantly on what level of accuracy there is. Will be interested to know why it's possible right now yet during some weeks, it's suggested we don't go past T72...or even earlier. This is a genuine query as it might help me understand the Model thread a bit better when I read through...all a learning process! (Been on this site a few years now...and still feel that there is still so so much to learn!) Edit: As I post, someone's just explained it. So in this kind of weather pattern...changes can have little impact on our weather? Yet during more active weather...such as last Thursday's failed northerly...small changes can make all the difference? (I use the term failed with an IMBY perspective!) (want to clear this up in here...as don't want to send that thread off on a tangent...hope you can understand my confusion!)

The post was by IB.. His American friends told him. So it must be true
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Funny how just 6 days ago we were looking at a notable northerly outbreak just 4 or 5 days ahead!  That failed for most of us and now look at the output.  Just shows how quickly things can change!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

As expected GFS 12Z further east, now expecting a wet day on Friday 13th, GFS is the best model, ECMWF 12Z not eastward enough with the atlantic fronts, its wrong for thur/fri

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire

why do you detest rain so much? i'd prefer it zonal to this average, mild, dry, cloudy with bright spells dross, yet another awful day of model watching passes by

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

As expected 18Z sets up a wet Friday 13th, still expected, not bad dry from sun to thurs

 

same last year, as expected in Dec, turned wet on 14th, and pattern changed around 10th Jan, hoping similar this winter

 

Tony, we all have different weather preferences, mine of course is snow and cold, but while it's too early yet for that. let's have it dry

I cannot understand people who love wind and rain,

Edited by IrememberAtlantic252
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Weather Preferences: anticyclonic unless a snow storm
  • Location: Coventry

Reasons to be cheerful with all this dry and mild December weather. You're saving money on heating bills. You can also save by not using your drier. It has barely rained here in the Mids for about 2weeks so let the wind dry your clothes outside.

Would I like a white Christmas? Sure I would but it won't ruin my Christmas if it is green..

How long will this mild weather last? It's unlikely to last through winter. It is rare for a UK winter to deliver no cold weather.

Expect the models to show something of interest within the next 7 days is my unscientific hunch.

Edited by BlueSkies_do_I_see
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Reasons to be cheerful with all this dry and mild December weather. You're saving money on heating bills. You can also save by not using your drier. It has barely rained here in the Mids for about 2weeks so let the wind dry your clothes outside.Would I like a white Christmas? Sure I would but it won't ruin my Christmas if it is green..How long will this mild weather last? It's unlikely to last through winter. It is rare for a UK winter to deliver no cold weather.Expect the models to show something of interest within the next 7 days is my unscientific hunch.

 

Noticed the last 3 GFS FI's a bit better, hoping only a short wet spell, from 13th to about 18th, then high takes over again

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rainham Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow all the way
  • Location: Rainham Kent

More reasons to be cheerful; we put up outside Xmas decorations today.  first:  Inflatable 12ft snowman might not take such a battering and survive another yearPosted Image

Secondly: front bedroom windows have to stay open ajar for cables, so wont spend every night freezing!

 

Got to play the 'Glad Game'Posted Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Ahhhhhhhhhh! Oh God my eyes! They burn..

 

Posted Image

 

It's official..  Winter is over!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

Dont worry SB.Extreme mild leading up to Xmas can sometimes mean exactly the opposite afterwards.

Hope not

 

 

*looks at leccy bill*

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

It's been a while since I've felt so disinterested from the weather, but the forecast is absolutely void of interest - I really can't see anything at all to get excited over. Not one thing. Not even a little bit. This is probably a good time to take a leave of absence from the weather aspect of my life and return when something a little more interesting is within reach.

Edited by cheese
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...