Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[JOPRO]

It's going to be mild ramp ramp ramp ramp, it's never going to be cold again ramp ramp ramp ramp,winters over for the next 200 years ramp ramp ramp ramp, once this set up is intrenched it is very hard to move and could hang around for the next millennium ramp ramp ramp ramp! Ok I accept the mild camp may have won the next couple of weeks, but wish they where a bit more gracious in victory, otherwise they do set themselves up to get there noses rubbed in it when we have a cold spell. Needed to get that off my chest, lets hope for better luck towards the end of the month coldies.

[MP-R]

Correct me if I'm wrong but this autumn has reminded me a bit of 2004 - September started warm and sunny, followed by an unsettled/thundery spell then rather bland for the remainder; October was largely unsettled and often very mild (2004 didn't have such a late-summery start); November was a mix of mild but predominantly cool and sometimes cold. This December looks like being very quiet during the first half with anticyclonic nothingness. In 2004 however it quickly became unsettled from around the 15th and within 4 days I woke up to a covering of snow, I think on the 19th. Then of course we all know what Christmas was like.As boring and unseasonable as the models look, I'm training myself to not care until at least next weekend and hopefully something will have popped up that's worthy of note by then.

[cheese]

I'm just casting my mind back to last winter, and remembered that we didn't get any settling snow until 14 January. Seems like ages since we had any settling snow in December around here - 2010 in fact. Seems incredibly unusual to go 3 years in a row without any snow on the ground in December whatsoever. I remember some southern locations getting a decent fall in December last year though, but whenever we had snow here, it was too marginal for anything to settle.

 

 

It's going to be mild ramp ramp ramp ramp, it's never going to be cold again ramp ramp ramp ramp,winters over for the next 200 years ramp ramp ramp ramp, once this set up is intrenched it is very hard to move and could hang around for the next millennium ramp ramp ramp ramp! Ok I accept the mild camp may have won the next couple of weeks, but wish they where a bit more gracious in victory, otherwise they do set themselves up to get there noses rubbed in it when we have a cold spell. Needed to get that off my chest, lets hope for better luck towards the end of the month coldies.

 

I agree completely. A few certain posters have clearly been waiting a while to bask in their mild glory - hopefully it will be cut short come January, just like last winter.

Edited December 8, 2013 by cheese

[Gaz1985]

I'm just casting my mind back to last winter, and remembered that we didn't get any settling snow until 14 January. Seems like ages since we had any settling snow in December around here - 2010 in fact. Seems incredibly unusual to go 3 years in a row without any snow on the ground in December whatsoever. I remember some southern locations getting a decent fall in December last year though, but whenever we had snow here, it was too marginal for anything to settle.

 

 

 

I agree completely. A few certain posters have clearly been waiting a while to bask in their mild glory - hopefully it will be cut short come January, just like last winter.

 

Yes seemed like around mid January this year when we got our first settling snow too, so things can change in the new year, if I remember last Christmas was green and damp! there's plenty of hope and time for coldies yet although looking at some posts by the pessimists you wouldn't think so.

Edited December 8, 2013 by Gaz1985

[Summer Sun]

Yes seemed like around mid January this year when we got our first settling snow too, so things can change in the new year, if I remember last Christmas was green and damp! there's plenty of hope and time for coldies yet although looking at some posts by the pessimists you wouldn't think so.

 

The problem is after the cold snowy conditions since winter 2009 - 10 (with the exception of 2011 - 12 which only had one major snow event for most and finished above average) peoples exceptions of winter has increased significantly if this was the late 90's or early 2000's people would be expecting it

[Bobby]

I'm just casting my mind back to last winter, and remembered that we didn't get any settling snow until 14 January. Seems like ages since we had any settling snow in December around here - 2010 in fact. Seems incredibly unusual to go 3 years in a row without any snow on the ground in December whatsoever. I remember some southern locations getting a decent fall in December last year though, but whenever we had snow here, it was too marginal for anything to settle.

 

I've always remembered significant falls of snow to be rare in December here at least, not unusual at all. December 2009 and 2010 bucked the trend of many many snowless Decembers. Typically February was the best chance of snow with December and January often being fairly wet and zonal.

[J10]

This is my take on the rather negative mood of the model discussion thread:

 

 

Surprised you didn't get a quote from Ian Brown for that poster.

[Gord]

Indeed...back in the late 90s when I lived in Lowestoft, Christmas and New Year always seemed to be the turning point. 1995, 2008 and 2010 (I was here in the West Midlands by the last 2 examples...I was out of the country from 2004-2006 so don't know if I missed one there!) spring to mind when trying to think of pre-xmas snow. Can't think of many other examples. So no cold weather pre-xmas isn't a huge worry.

 

Even though the weather is very dull right now...I've enjoyed being out and about today. Was amazing to see a tree that had lost all of it's leaves but still had plums on it! Nature had had a funny Autumn.

Edited December 8, 2013 by Gord

[Tony27]

just got in and looked at the models and wish i hadn't bothered, another copy and paste day 

[Milhouse]

Very easy going weather at the moment. No need to de ice the car in the morning and you can just put on a light fleece/ thin coat when out shopping. If I was being choosy I would want the build up to Christmas to be cold and sunny with the mild stuff arriving mid way through January heralding an early Spring.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

just got in and looked at the models and wish i hadn't bothered, another copy and paste day

i hav'nt looked at any models i just check how many pages have gone by (2 or so ) on mod thread since friday to see how things are doing same old same old very boring weather indeed things can change very quickly tho all it takes for one of the models to spot something

[Methuselah]

All this writing-off the winter is more than a tad premature, IMO...What's it all based anyway - other folks'/institutions' expectations for future teleconnections and arithmetic indices??

 

If the greatest meteorological minds in the world cannot predict accurately for more than about 10 days' hence, how the heck can anyone write-off the next three months - all because of one Bartlett! 

[Summer Sun]

Remember guys there is 11 weeks and 5 days of winter left yet there is still bags of time for something colder to develop remember also remember December is the mildest winter month of the 3

[Frosty_wsm]

Anyone else getting fed up with one or two posters in the mod thread who are constantly on a wind up & keep coming out with crap accusing others of hopecasting! God my ignore list is getting bigger by the day! I've noticed one of two others mention about this in the mod thread so I'm not the only one to notice it but thought I'd post this in the correct thread. 

[Bolton67]

Remember guys there is 11 weeks and 5 days of winter left yet there is still bags of time for something colder to develop remember also remember December is the mildest winter month of the 3

If December is the mildest winter month, can you please explain why you are getting excited at what the models are showing at the moment ?

[Bolton67]

Anyone else getting fed up with one or two posters in the mod thread who are constantly on a wind up & keep coming out with crap accusing others of hopecasting! God my ignore list is getting bigger by the day! I've noticed one of two others mention about this in the mod thread so I'm not the only one to notice it but thought I'd post this in the correct thread.

They are not worth bothering about. I do find it ironic that one poster Shedhead looks for colder weather in summer and warmer weather in winter.. There are names for posters like him on the Internet.. They usually live under a bridge. Edited December 8, 2013 by lancs_northants

[shuggee]

I wonder if we'll have a swap round from the recent run of mild and stormy hogmanay/new years this year...  There's my first ramp of the season

[Bradowl]

I've been half expecting a mild winter but all is not lost yet. Many of the very cold winters we had in the late 1970s and early 80s we didn't see much wintery weather on run up to Christmas.

 

I think we will have to wait until around turn of year to see any proper cold winter weather.

[Don]

[quote name="Bradowl" post="2858206" timestamp="

I think we will have to wait until around turn of year to see any proper cold winter weather.

Edited December 8, 2013 by Don

[Don]

The problem is after the cold snowy conditions since winter 2009 - 10 (with the exception of 2011 - 12 which only had one major snow event for most and finished above average) peoples exceptions of winter has increased significantly if this was the late 90's or early 2000's people would be expecting it

Exactly. In fact during many of the Winters of the noughties, I used to look at mid February as the best shot for wintry conditions and expected very little earlier in the season!

[legritter]

Well i was going to post in Model forum but cant really add much tonight as i think most things have been said .so here goes ,the models are being controlled by  the powers to be ,the EXPRESS newspaper as got this winter nailed so the powers to be are keeping us in the dark as to the impending winter from hell ,i think  FROSTY as sussed it out and will soon be onto it .those Dart board lows in north atlantic are a red herring and the euro high a figment of the models imagination .there is no fooling the GFS and im sure it will soon be picking up on the sudden Stratospheric warming that is actually taking place right now ,indeed GFS is updating now so lets get our skates on and tune in ,STellas all round cheers gang .

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

I would be happy if this happened again like post xmas 2005 http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Lq9GC5YUJEs

[igloo]

im not looking forward to the next few weeks of grey drizzle damp weather with temps  at 10c the days are short enough.who nows maybe this christmas we will get a change to something colder with some sun after the last 2 which were very mild and wet

[stevofunnelcl]

Express Front Page, this morning

 

'Storms on way at Christmas'

 

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/409807245015134208/photo/1

 

Yeah, and a Daily Express Journalist just flew past my window !!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I get a sense that my level of interest in the day-to-day weather is going to be somewhat below average during the upcoming fortnight.  The weather may vary from one day to the next, but we'll be stuck with the uneventful weather types- dry with variable amounts of cloud, or persistent light frontal rain. 

 

Looking over some of the synoptic charts, I find myself thinking, "If this was March, then many of us would be in with a chance of some unusual warmth, accompanied at times by bright sunshine, but we're at the wrong time of year to get notable warmth off the continent".