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Very Severe Tropical Cyclone Madi


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Another tropical cyclone has formed in the Bay Of Bengal, will have a fuller update later.

     

    From JTWC:

     

    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//RMKS/1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIX) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY    ---   WARNING POSITION:   060000Z --- NEAR 9.8N 83.8E     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 83.8E    ---   FORECASTS:   12 HRS, VALID AT:   061200Z --- 9.9N 83.6E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS    ---   24 HRS, VALID AT:   070000Z --- 9.8N 83.5E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS    ---   36 HRS, VALID AT:   071200Z --- 10.3N 83.6E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS    ---   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:   48 HRS, VALID AT:   080000Z --- 10.9N 83.5E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS    ---   72 HRS, VALID AT:   090000Z --- 11.8N 83.5E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS    ---   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:    ---   96 HRS, VALID AT:   100000Z --- 13.1N 84.0E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS    ---   120 HRS, VALID AT:   110000Z --- 14.6N 85.6E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY    ---REMARKS:060300Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 83.7E.TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 286 NM SOUTH-EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, INDICATE THAT TC 06B HAS REACHED THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, ON A 052330Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 052331Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES MUCH IMPROVED LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS, DESPITE THE FRAGMENTED NATURE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. TC 06B IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AROUND TAU 24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, LEAVING TC 06B IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES, THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND SLOWLY CARRY THE SYSTEM POLEWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD. PASSAGE OVER A SUFFICIENTLY WARM SEA SURFACE, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE WILL ENABLE TC 06B TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER, COOLER WATER UPWELLED BY THE NEARLY STATIONARY SYSTEM AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. THE SPREAD AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS PREDICT QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION FOLLOWED BY SLOW POLEWARD MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST, IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. HOWEVER, DUE TO LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS AND THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 051451Z DEC 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 051500). JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: EDITED CORRECT STORM NUMBER IN REMARK SECTION.//

     

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    Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

    TC 06B has intensified to 45 knots to the northeast of Sri Lanka. Current AVN satellite imagery shows that the system consists of a large ball of deep convection with some banding to its east.

     

    Posted Image

     

    The system has already proven to be quite a challenge regarding the track forecast. Initally, the system was forecast to continue its northwestward movement and then slowly recurve to the east:

     

    Posted Image

     

    However, only six hours later (the latest forecast issued so far), the JTWC shifted the initial position  quite some distance to the east. The result is now that the forecast is mainly a very slow northward drift (possibly even stationary). It indicates that the model uncertainty is currently pretty high.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Regarding the intensity forecast with above track, the chances on cool water upwelling will increase with decreasing track speeds. This would mean that the cyclone could be weaker than indicated in the intensity forecast if the current forecast verifies. But it has to be emphasized that uncertainty levels are very high.

     

    Now, I'll try to take a look at the synopsis with the GFS model (12Z). It shows the cyclone intensifying to a 995 mb TC within 30 hrs. What can also be seen is that the system is located between two ridges, one above India and one above Malaysia (I assume the ridges aren't orogaphically influenced i.e. formed by land/sea contrast). The two ridges compete with each other to create a very weak steering environment as a result.

     

    Posted Image

    GFS T+30 hr.

     

    At T+102 (3 days later than above chart!), the cyclone is still visible in almost the same spot (just slightly to the north) and the intensity doesn't seem to have changed as well. The only difference is that the ridge over India has weakened some, resulting in a very weak steering flow to the north.

     

    Posted Image

    GFS T+102 hr

     

    And at T+180, the system can be seen having moved south (!) back to its original position, It looks like it is the cousin of Alessia of some sort. The pressure in the system has increased some by then. The steering ridge over India is back, and therefore, the flow becomes nonexistent again.

     

    Posted Image

    GFS T+180 hr.

     

    Though the values of such forecasts at such timesteps aren't very valueable, I think it is very funny to see a TC having a net motion of about 0 meters!

     

    For comparison, the chart of the initial state is given below:

    Posted Image

    GFS T+0 hr.

     

    And finally, MIMIC TPW (a measure of water vapor) of the Indian Ocean. One can see that the system is being fed with moisture from down to almost Madagascar!

     

    Posted Image

     

    Sources:

    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/

    http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnsas.html

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

    Edited by Vorticity0123
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Certainly has a long feeder band stretching to the southwest. Some impressive convection over the LLCC too, which is drenching northeastern Sri Lanka at present. Strengthening is likely for the next few days a shear is low, but upwelling will play a big role in the intensity in the long term if this quasi-stationary motion persists.

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    After producing locally heavy rainfall across Sri Lanka and the southeast coastline of India this week, a large area of unsettled weather has organized into a named tropical cyclone. Parts of eastern Sri Lanka have already received 150-300 mm (6-12 inches) of rainfall this week after rounds of rain and thunderstorms moved over the region.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Now that Tropical Cyclone 06B has formed it is expected to drift northward into early next week. This track will take the heaviest rainfall away from Sri Lanka while also keeping it east of India over the open Bay of Bengal. The southeast coast of India could still get isolated downpours from the storm, but any widespread heavy rainfall will remain offshore through early next week.

    The long-term future of Tropical Cyclone 06B is not certain at this time. Two scenarios exist: the first causing the storm to stall east of India early next week then reverse course and track south or southwest toward southeast India and Sri Lanka later next week.

     

    This track would lead to potentially flooding rainfall for southeastern India, especially coastal areas from Chennai southward. This track would also bring more heavy rainfall to parts of Sri Lanka that are already saturated from the recent rain. The second scenario would involve the cyclone bring pulled northeastward by a trough to the north. If this were to happen, it is likely that increasing shear would weaken the storm quickly as it approached Myanmar with heavy rainfall but less threat of damaging winds.

     

     

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-cyclone-06b-india-sri/20717549

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    06B has continued to strengthen and has been upgraded to a Severe Cyclonic Storm by IMD, named Madi. Madi has winds of 55kts according to JTWC. Madi has been crawling northwards overnight. This slow motion is expected to persist whilst a trough weakens the ridge to the west giving slightly more steering influence to the ridge to the east. Thereafter, the trough should weaken, which will likely grind Madi to a halt yet again as it becomes trapped between the two ridges.

     

    Over the next day or so, Madi should remain in an environment conducive for intensification. Shear is low, and waters are warm. Madi has developed a central dense overcast flanked by strong banding, so the storm should reach cat 1 strength on the SS scale soon as an eyewall begins to develop. Thereafter, the slow motion will upwell colder water to the surface, which is forecast to weaken Madi. Shear values are higher to the north, and these higher shear conditions are also likely to affect Madi in a couple days time.

     

    post-1820-0-22240800-1386418863_thumb.jp

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Posted Image

     

    The cyclone “Madi†in the Bay of Bengal has intensified in to a severe cyclone and is located about 500 km to the North-east of Jaffna. The Department of Meteorology says that it is slowly moving away from Sri Lanka.  However, under the influence of the system windy conditions are expected to continue over the country and over the suburb sea areas.There will be intermittent showers or thundershowers in the deep sea areas off the coast extending from Batticaloa to Jaffna, says a severe weather advisory, issued by Early Warning Centre of the Met Department. Winds will be North-westerly (but rotating anticlockwise) and speed will be 30-50 kmph. The winds speed over the sea area off the coast extending from Batticaloa to Mannar via Trincomalee and Jaffna will be strengthening up to 80kmph at times and up to 60kmph at times in the other sea areas around the island.â€
     
    The sea areas off the coast extending from Batticaloa to Mannar via Trincomalee and Jaffna will be very rough and dangerous and the other sea areas around the Island will be rough at times, it said.Tropical Cyclone Madi has developed over the Bay of Bengal, northeast of Sri Lanka and east of India.Parts of eastern Sri Lanka have already received 150-300 mm (6-12 inches) of rainfall this week after rounds of rain and thunderstorms moved over the region.Now that Tropical Cyclone Madi has formed it is expected to drift northward into early next week.
     
    This track will take the heaviest rainfall away from Sri Lanka while also keeping it east of India over the open Bay of Bengal.The southeast coast of India could still get isolated downpours from the storm, but any widespread heavy rainfall will remain offshore through early next week, AccuWeather reports.

     

     

    http://www.adaderana.lk/news.php?nid=25017

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    Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

    I'm having trouble believing that Mandi is only a weak category one. She seems too organised, and most Cat 1's don't have a structure as good as hers seems to be.

     

    In the long VIS imagery loop, I couldn't see any resemblance to the satellite picture above and the real-time imagery. Could it be an outdated image?

    The latest VIS imagery shows a warm spot (or line) with some banding features to the north. The eye itself looks like its a banding type eye.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Current CIMSS ADT satellite estimates show that the initial intensity is more or less constant at 55 kt (10 min. mean?)

     

    Posted Image

     

    AMSU satellite estimates are currently 85 kt, but those seems to be more than 12 hrs ago.

     

    Posted Image

     

    And finally, CIMSS MIMIC imagery shows that the inner core has become better defined over the last few hours, with a noticeable shift in the center position visible in the last few frames.

     

    Posted Image

     

    The improvement in the inner core could be the precursor of some intensification, but also the MIMIC imagery seems to be slightly outdated (07 dec)

     

    Sources:

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    Edited by Vorticity0123
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Madi strengthened to 65kts last night and has remained at that intensity since. The storm retains a well established central dense overcast with a cloud obscured eye feature. Madi has been moving at a brisker pace to the north today to the east of a trough over India. This trough is expected to fill and be replaced with a ridge soon, which will block Madi's northward movement and send it southwards or southwestwards eventually. Dry air and increasing shear should begin to affect Madi soon, but I think Madi could strengthen a little more before it does.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Cyclone Madi gives Tamil Nadu a miss

     

    Posted Image

     

    Chennai: With the fourth successive cyclone on the east coast giving Tamil Nadu a miss, the state is reeling under a tremendous rainfall deficit this northeast monsoon season.
     
    With 23 more days to go for the end of this main rainfall season, weathermen hope for some revival of the monsoon.
     
    "There could be a little bit of rain over the coastal areas from cyclone Madi. But it has started drifting towards the northeast and so the possibility of its crossing land is very limited. It has already been categorised as a very severe cyclonic storm and it might weaken over the sea or take a slightly different track," said a Met official.
     
    According to a weather blogger R. Pradeep John, the cyclone will remain on the same intensity or strengthen for two more days and then weaken very fast due to high wind shear and low sea surface temperature.
     
    The Met office has predicted only isolated rain or thundershowers over a few places in the state for the next three days. Dr Y.E.A. Raj, deputy director general of meteorology, Regional Meteorological Centre, said there are chances of strong winds over Chennai. "Apart from fishermen who have been asked not to venture into the sea, even the bigger cargo vessels need to be careful while navigating in the Bay of Bengal," he added.
     
    While activities in the Bay helped the state record normal rainfall in the week that ended December 4, overall, the state has recorded a deficit of 30 per cent rainfall for the monsoon season from October 1 till December 8. Tamil Nadu has recorded only 27.3 cm mean rainfall, compared to the normal of 39 cm.
     
    Similarly, Chennai, too, has so far registered deficient rainfall of 33 per cent for the season, while it recorded excess rains of 38 per cent for the week that ended December 4.
     
    For a 24-hour period that ended on 8.30 am on Sunday, Ennore registered the highest rainfall in the state at 3 cm, followed by Nungambakkam at 2 cm. Guindy, Madhavaram, Tar­a­­mani, Mahab­alipu­ram, Anna University, Me­en­a­mbakkam and Red hills each received 1 cm rain.
     
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Madi weakened to 60kts yesterday but overnight has developed a better defined eye, looks like Madi could well be defying forecasts and overcoming the shear that has affected it over the last 24 hours:

     

    post-1820-0-43206600-1386659697_thumb.jp

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Posted Image

     

    Tropical Cyclone Madi is headed for a landfall in southeastern India, and NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's TRMM satellite found that rainfall was heaviest north of the storm's center.
     
    The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite known as TRMM captured data on Tropical Cyclone Madi's rainfall on Dec. 8 at 1144 UTC/6:44 a.m. EST. TRMM saw the bulk of the storm's rainfall was occurring north of the center of circulation and falling at a rate of 1 inch/30 mm per hour with isolated areas of 2 inches/50 mm. On December 9 at 1500 UTC/10 a.m. EST, Tropical Cyclone Madi's winds had weakened to near 60 knots/69 mph/111.1 kph. Madi had dropped from typhoon to tropical storm strength today, December 9. It was centered near 14.6 north latitude and 84.8 west longitude in the Northern Indian Ocean. Madi's center was about 280 nautical miles/322.2 miles/ 518.6 km east-northeast of Chennai, India, and the storm was still moving erratically, now to the north-northeast at 3 knots/3.4 mph/5.5 kph.
     
    Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or JTWC now expect Madi to turn to the southwest and make landfall in southern India in Tamil Nadir on December 12. JTWC noted that Madi appears to have peaked in intensity and is forecast to weaken slowly through the period due to persistent vertical wind shear, dry air moving into the system and possible cooler sea surface temperatures associated with upwelling (water being drawn up from the bottom of the ocean as a result of being stirred by a tropical cyclone- which in this case is Madi itself, because it is moving so slowly). The current track for the center of the cyclone brings it between the coastal city of Puducherry and the town of Mannarguddi, both along the southeastern coast. Forecasters will be closely watching Madi as it moves across India as some forecast computer models suggest that its remnants could re-emerge into the Arabian Sea.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Madi peaked at 70kts this morning, but has since collapsed, big style. The convection has vanished rapidly with the cyclone, and winds have fallen to 50kts, which is probably a bit generous considering what's left of Madi. Madi has started the southwest turn towards southern India. Unless convection makes a comeback soon, Madi will become a remnant low. It's amazing how this system looked this morning compared to now!

     

    This morning:

     

    post-1820-0-30468500-1386704042_thumb.jp

     

    Now:

     

    post-1820-0-19926200-1386704086_thumb.jp

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Cyclone Madi, a rare event

     

    Posted Image

     

    Chennai: After 17 years, Tamil Nadu may experience a unique cyclonic storm which could bring welcome rains during a poor northeast monsoon season. While the 1996 (November 28-December 6) cyclone went in loops and took turns before hitting the north of Chennai, cyclone Madi is expected to take an unusual inverted ‘V’ and reach Tamil Nadu. But it remains to be seen whether the weakening system that may be devoid of moisture brings copious rains to the state.

     

    According to Met officials, cyclone Madi is currently stationed 610 km east-northeast of Chennai and is expected to turn southwest and come close to the TN coast on Friday (December 13). Weather blogger R. Pradeep John said the cyclone had already attained its peak strength and would slowly weaken in the coming days. “Chennai is experiencing a cold wave due to dry air and so we need to wait and watch whether this system will bring widespread rains to TN,†he added. However, weathermen are hopeful of some rain in Chennai and the coastal districts from this cyclone. “While the present very severe cyclonic storm is expected to weaken to a depression or even a well-marked low pressure by the time it reaches the TN coast, we can surely expect some rainfall,†said Dr Y.E.A. Raj, deputy director general of meteorology, Regional Meteor­ological Centre, Chennai. He added that the inverted movement of the system is a rare phenomenon.
     
    “Sometimes, we do see minor southern movement in cyclonic systems. Even the 2011 Thane cyclone moved slightly north and then took a southern turn before hitting Mahabalipuram. Even in rare cases, the reason for a shift in track would be mainly due to some other cyclonic system in the nearby areas. Also, storms normally don’t move towards the equator. But cyclone Madi has defied all odds and could emerge as an exceptional system in the Bay of Bengal,†added Dr Raj. Meanwhile, the Indian Meteorological Depart­ment’s lead long-range forecaster, Dr D.S. Pai, told Deccan Chronicle that the 31 per cent deficit rains faced by the state could be offset by a single cyclonic storm.
     
    “We have experienced bountiful (25 to 30 cm) rainfall from just one system in the past,†he pointed out. The state has so far received only 27.4 cm mean rainfall, compared to the normal of 39.9 cm for the season from October 1 to December 10.

     

     

    http://www.asianage.com/india/cyclone-madi-rare-event-386

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Convection fired over Madi after last posted, saving Madi for another day. However, the dry air and shear has now won, and Madi is now a largely convectionless remnant low. The remnant low will make landfall shortly after the 12 hour mark, but will bring little significant weather.

     

    As Coast's post above describes, an interesting track!

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Cyclone Madi loses intensity

     

    VISAKHAPATNAM: In a major respite for people in coastal Andhra, severe cyclonic storm Madi, which has been petering out, gradually turned into a deep depression on Wednesday. It is expected to weaken further into a depression by Thursday before weakening to a low pressure.
     
    However, Madi did create tension among fisherfolk in the Konapapeta and Ponnada areas of Kottapalli and Uppada mandals of East Godavari due to heavy waves battering the coast since Monday night. Coast erosion under the onslaught of the cyclone also forced the officials to stall vehicular traffic in the area. Around 25 thatched houses were washed away in sea waters at Konapapeta as the sea surged nearly 25 meters forward. Luckily, fishermen managed to save their boats.
     
    According to the India Meteorology Department (IMD), Madi, which is a deep depression laying centred over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal, moved south-southwestward at a speed of about 10 kmph on Wednesday and was currently positioned about 400 km southeast of Machilipatnam, 340 km east-northeast of Chennai and 570 km north-northeast of Trincomalee in Sri Lanka. It would move southwestwards and weaken into a depression in the next 12 hours, the IMD has predicted.
     
    According to Met officials, under the influence of the system, rainfall would occur at isolated places over coastal Andhra in the next 12 hours. The impact would be mostly felt in south coastal AP. Fishermen along and off the south Andhra Pradesh coasts have been advised not to venture into the sea during the next 24 hours.
     
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