South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 08/12/13

[Snowangel-MK]

I would have shared one of my roasted nuts with you over a beer in the bull

 Only one of them ? Oh well another time maybe ...... I've never had a beer in the Bull - well not the one in Olney anyway, I'm more familiar with the watering holes in Stony Stratford there is a Bull there but I prefer the Cock Inn ! 

Blimey,anyone with sky sports should take a look at the NFL game in Philladelphia on live,the sort of snow dreams are made of,cant believe they are playing in it.

For anyone who missed it .....this is what it looked like .......

[Jason T]

Could not agree more JP, About writing of Dec, It is only the 8th of Dec, Our past Recent winters did not really kick off until Mid December onwards, We had Dec 17th 2009, Big Easterly, Dec 18th 2010, Big Snow event, and so on. Winter 2012/13 Started late Dec and carried on till, Well May 2013 Mild interludes in between. Plenty of time yet. 

[Jax]

 

Only one of them ? Oh well another time maybe ...... I've never had a beer in the Bull - well not the one in Olney anyway, I'm more familiar with the watering holes in Stony Stratford

image.jpg

Many good watertering holes in Olney, tis not short of them I can promise.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

also no-one can confidently predict anything past 2 weeks unless you go by charts in fi

 

and the jet is so unpredictable i would not even go to 1 week with it

 

charts are pretty boring at present but to write off the whole of this month at present is silly

 

may be right but the weather likes to make fools of us especially long range ones

The voice of reason there John, probably why you don't go in the MOD thread.

 

This time last week we had early warning from Ian Ferguson that there may be be problems on Friday/Saturday.  That actually transpired a full 24 hours earlier and that's with the might of the UKMO behind it.

 

You are spot on with anyone calling more than 7-10 days is delusional, especially those who write winter is written of on day 7 of a 90 day season.

[john pike]

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

 

trying to keep this short for now

 

temps chilly at night where clear

 

holding up to avoid a frost where cloud persists

 

daytime temps around 8-10 up to tuesday

 

lower on wednesday around 6-8 degrees

 

watch for some dense fog overnight from tomorrow on

 

will update the 96 and 120 when available

[john pike]

hi norfolk

 

when forecasts become that accurate in the future it will make weather sites a tad boring

 

i wont say anyones wrong predicting long range because they may be right

 

but to be convinced their right is a different matter

 

i struggle to predict correctly at 120 via the fax charts as they are always changing

 

re going on the mod thread

 

noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

 

i struggle to predict correctly at 120 via the fax charts as they are always changing

 

re going on the mod thread

 

noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

I go FAX first, everything else follows.  As you say the 120Hr FAX is bad enough  --  and that's with (skilled) human input.

 

Anyway early start tomorrow, so goodnight, I'll enjoy looking at your ramps tomorrow

[john pike]

 

whos got a boat for hire

 

maybe a net weather meet up in the atlantic

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

 

whos got a boat for hire

 

maybe a net weather meet up in the atlantic

Final word

 

Ouch  I need a pair of wellies

[john pike]

fi on gfs

 

 

the odd tweak could be interesting

[john pike]

thursday

 

 

 

a breezy south westerly flow

 

a chance of seeing more sun today

 

temps around 10-12 degrees

 

temps up a tad as we have moved out of the continental feed

 

looks dry

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

friday to follow

[john pike]

friday

 

 

a weaker south west flow

 

note the flow going over france and then the channel

 

this will more than likely result in the risk of fog becoming a problem

 

temps

 

even with the warmer uppers

 

due to cloudcover temps around 8 degrees and if fog sticks for a while expect lower values

 

there is a front close by so a chance of some very light drizzle is possible

 

ukmo at 144

 

a weak south west flow

 

uppers lower now so expect temps to drop accordingly

 

all fi here for now

[john pike]

ecm ensembles

 

 

 

got a fair spread on the 13th there

 

via temps and rainfall

 

temps before average to a shade over and dry

 

about as far as i will go is the 13th as i think the models are still unclear where to position the low to our west

 

 

 

lets see what ramps i can find soon

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=321&y=153&run=18&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

london short ensembles for temps

 

guess where the spread is

[john pike]

watch how quick things can change

 

ensemble 16 at 192

 

 

how bad does that look

 

now at the end it shows this

 

 

 

 

 

my ramp chart though is this

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=14&mode=1&carte=0

 

 

 

or the control run

 

 

gfs ensembles

 

 

messy from the 14th

 

and a nice dip on the 20th

 

other than that

 

more runs needed

[alexisj9]

Icy winter storms with hurricane-force winds battering northern Europe claimed four more lives in Poland, where some 350,000 homes remained without power, authorities said on Saturday. Hundreds of vehicles were stuck in the snow on Poland’s roads, while air traffic was also seriously affected, the administration ministry said. Media reports said a man was killed when a strong wind swept him off a balcony where he was working in southwestern Lower Silesia province. Three other people were killed when a tree fell on their car in northwest Poland, bringing the reported death toll from the storms in recent days across north Europe to 14. Another 53 people in Poland were injured, reports said. Firefighters said the snow had caused traffic jams several kilometres long. In the central city of Strzelno, firefighters evacuated some 250 people including 200 children from stranded vehicles. “The firefighters are delivering hot tea and food to people trapped by the snow,†spokesman Pawel Fratczak told the PAP news agency. In the northwest, several buses carrying children on school trips had to seek shelter at hotels and schools that were transformed into temporary dormitories. On Friday, the death toll rose to nine while hundreds of thousands were left without power or stranded by transport chaos. Emergency services across the region battled overnight to evacuate flooded harbour areas, sandbag sodden dykes and repair damage from toppled trees that crashed onto houses, roads, train tracks and power lines. Atlantic storm ‘Xaver’, having barrelled across Britain where two people died on Thursday, packed winds of up to 158km per hour as it hit Germany, also battering the Netherlands, Poland and southern Scandinavia. Blackouts hit 400,000 homes in Poland and affected 50,000 people in Sweden, while thousands of air passengers were stranded as flights were cancelled at Amsterdam, Berlin, Hamburg, Gdansk and other airports.

 

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/site/?pageid=event_desc&edis_id=CE-20131208-41887-POL

 

i think we were lucky in the end with that storm

 

also no-one can confidently predict anything past 2 weeks unless you go by charts in fi

 

and the jet is so unpredictable i would not even go to 1 week with it

 

charts are pretty boring at present but to write off the whole of this month at present is silly

 

may be right but the weather likes to make fools of us especially long range ones

I agree, we dodge a bullet there. If the storm was any slower over the north sea, the storm surge would have been much worse.

[chubbyfan]

 

Michael Fish spotted coming out of a Poundland in Eastbourne yesterday afternoon with a full bag!!

 

(that's the way to do the Christmas shopping Michael!!  )

poundland..?.

 

surely he can afford to shop somewhere a bit more upmarket than that.

[alexisj9]

May be this American bass forecast America's record cold spell in September.

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weird/432132/US-sea-bass-makes-history-as-first-of-its-kind-to-swim-to-Dover-then-get-caught

 

Or it just got very lost. My husband saw it pulled out.

 

 

The striped bass- a relative of the European bass- was caught by fisherman Martin White at Dover, Kent.The 2lbs 7oz sea fish is the first of its kind ever to be hooked in Britain.The striped bass is usually a bit of a homebody, and rarely strays more than five miles from America's east coast- so experts are baffled at its capture.Dr Gary Nelson from Massachusetts State Fisheries said: "It's unheard of for a striped bass to travel all the way across the Atlantic."It is possible that it came over to the UK in the warm waters of the Gulf Stream when it was just a fry."Striped bass are pretty hardy fish and can survive in waters between -3C and 30C but this discovery is

amazing."

Edited December 9, 2013 by alexisj9

[PiggiePalace]

Quick update on the Norfolk seal pups:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2520075/Save-seal-pups-Major-rescue-operation-263-swept-mothers-vicious-tides.html

 

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=433964426703496&set=a.189583807808227.30863.185814564851818&type=1&theater

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

well, off to a 7C start, but still surprisingly windy, hopefully enough of a breeze to prevent fog as I drive to Weybridge

[Charltonkerry]

Dull, dismal, dreary and depressing here in dirty Dartford, just about sums its all up.

Not a nice day yesterday, it was another day of memories of good time brought about writing Christmas cards, the most depressing part was but the line through those who are no longer with us. Sad day.

[Atlantis]

Good morning everyone. A tad fresh this morning 0.8 here at the moment and it is foggy here too.

Looks like it is going to be an interesting journey to work if you are driving this morning. Take care all.

[Captain Shortwave]

Morning all.

Second week of work, fun times. At least the weather looks half decent. Good sunny spells supposedly for most of this week. Much better than was forecast a few days back.

Just some high cloud around this morning so not too bad.

[Great Plum]

Morning... Fog burning away here in Reigate... Potential for blue sky later I think...

[Snowangel-MK]

Quick update on the Norfolk seal pups:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2520075/Save-seal-pups-Major-rescue-operation-263-swept-mothers-vicious-tides.html https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=433964426703496&set=a.189583807808227.30863.185814564851818&type=1&theater

Really sad that some of the pups have drowned - Mr P and I were there earlier in the year and had a wonderful time 'seal watching' at Horsey Gap :-( Morning all, It really feels like Monday morning, which on the positive side means I've caught up - I kept thinking it was Saturday yesterday for some reason ..... the weather is just dull and boring though - but will be working for most of it anyway !