Possible severe Atlantic storm Saturday 14th December 2013 onwards

[Summer Sun]

The met office have removed the yellow warning for strong winds from North east England and North west England

 

All of Scotland and Northern Ireland remains under a warning

 

Issued at: 1054 on Thu 12 Dec 2013

 

Valid from: 0600 on Sat 14 Dec 2013

 

Valid to: 2359 on Sat 14 Dec 2013

 

South to southwest winds will increase across many northern parts of the UK on Saturday with gales becoming widespread across Scotland and Northern Ireland. There is the potential for severe gales to develop, particularly across northwest Scotland. Gusts of 60-70 mph are likely within the yellow area with a risk of gusts to 80 mph or more across exposed parts of northwest Scotland. Some heavy rain is also likely, particularly in the west. The public should be aware that there could be disruption to travel and other outdoor events. At this stage there remains uncertainty regarding the extent of the strongest winds and so the public are advised to look out for updates to this alert in the coming days.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A vigorous depression is expected to run quickly northeastwards passing northwest Scotland on Saturday. As this happens, very strong south to southwest winds are likely to develop across much of the northern UK. At this stage there remains uncertainty in the extent of the strongest winds. It remains possible that parts of northern England and parts of NW Wales could also be affected. The very strong winds may last into early Sunday in places before easing.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1386979200&regionName=uk

[Paul]

Weather alert issued for both Saturday and Sunday:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=weather-alert-status;sess=

[swebby]

Both 00z ECM and 6z GFS going for something inclement next Thursday.

 

Long way off but the October 28th storm was picked up this far out.

 

Edit - images a couple of post below.

Edited December 12, 2013 by swebby

[Coast]

Latest GFS Lightning wizard has a rather large area now in contention for major wind and gusts:

 

 

 

All manor of shear and gusts there, something akin to last weeks storm Xavier for some, hopefully without the flooding this time?

 

Sunday's event now also coming into the time-scale for Lightning wizard and although it looks smaller for coverage, it still packs a punch:

 

 

 

I wouldn't want to be flying into the UK from the States this weekend.

Edited December 12, 2013 by Coast

[swebby]

Images for the above post (editor is not letting me paste directly for some reason?)

 

 

 

 

[Coast]

Despite current Met O warnings for Scotland and the North on Saturday and Sunday, their 5 day outlook doesn't show a huge storm:

 

 

Gust are getting more significant on the West coast:

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/city-of-london-greater-london#?tab=map&map=Wind&fcTime=1386979200&zoom=6&lon=-4.00&lat=57.07

Edited December 12, 2013 by Coast

[The PIT]

Further downgrade for us on Saturday winds between 50 and 60 now. Nothing at all of note for Sunday here. Just seen a strange forecast where the summary was Severe gales Northern Ireland and Scotland breezy in England. I think people may not be impressed with that forecast come Saturday evening.

[Zenarcher]

Looks like the models have pushed Sundays storm further out into the Atlantic making the worst of the winds not hit land. Saturday looks very windy and Sunday still will be for Scotland however at the moment I don't think it will be as bad as last Thursdays storm.

[J10]

Animated current run NMM charts from Netweather:

 

Gusts on Saturday:

 

Sustained wind on Saturday:

 

Gusts on Sunday:

 

Sustained Winds on Sunday:

 

 Just wondering how you make those GIFs very impressive

[Matty M]

Lucky escape for the northwest!

 

Mean winds >80kt to south of low!

 

[Beaufort12]

Hi guys. Is there any chance that Sundays low could still track further South and affect more areas or is it pretty certain it will be a fleeting miss. Thanks

[Zenarcher]

Quick summary ahead of the stormy weekend that is expected to affect Scotland the worst but Ireland, Wales and Northern England will also see strong winds.

 

Saturday

 

A low sweeps across the Atlantic and gradually deepens as it passes Ireland,

 

 

Strong winds will be to the West of Ireland average speeds ranging from 40 to 58mph along the coast,

 

 

Gusts between 70 to 85mph are likely as well for those on the very edge of the coasts in exposed parts,

 

 

By 12pm into the afternoon the low will make its presence felt across most of the UK with gusts between 60 to 70mph,

 

 

Saturday Night

 

A little feature that's being picked up as we get closer is this little low to the West of Scotland,

 

 

Although it may look harmless it would bring 45 to 55mph average wind speeds for a short period of time for South Western Scotland,

 

 

Sunday

 

This low arrives shortly after by Sunday afternoon it is very deep to the far West of Scotland. The models seem to be getting to grips with it now. They agree on the path but the deepness still varies some have it deeper and some not so deep. Either way some very stormy winds.

 

 

Sunday afternoon as the low moves in gusts around 70mph for Western Scotland,

 

 

Then through the afternoon 60 to 75mph gusts along Scotland's coasts but not too far away from land is where the worst of the winds look to be average speeds over 70mph and gusts over 90mph,

 

 

 

Through the evening the low moves North and so do the winds as they head into the Northern Scottish Isles staying very strong for up there as well.

Edited December 12, 2013 by weathermaster

[Zenarcher]

18z NAVGEM is not as deep as the GFS and is very similar to the UKMO at 1pm on Sunday,

 

 

They all agree on the track but the deepness is still expected to change between the models.

[Matty M]

Watch on for the 'middle' low.

 

Lots of 18z Ensemble members going for it.

 

Keep an eye out for it in the morning.

 

[lorenzo]

Pressure ensemble for the Faroe Islands right on that corridor of systems. Wow.

 

 

[ZONE 51]

Images for the above post (editor is not letting me paste directly for some reason?)

 

121213ecm500_168.png

 

121213h500slpCAQCOWL5.png

Could turn out one of the most stormy months on record

[ZONE 51]

 Just wondering how you make those GIFs very impressive

Don't know what one NW uses (obviously a good one!) but I use this one for doing animated charts. can change size of whole animation for web, speed of animation and even each frame, can also freeze frames.

 

www.photoscape.org

-

 

Wondering how the storms edge could affect the SE UK because track can change make a difference here.

 

MO are saying strong winds for southeast:

 

Saturday:

A dry, bright, chilly start. Continuing dry with bright spells, but increasing cloud through the day will limit the brightness later. Winds increasing from the southwest, becoming noticeably breezy later. Maximum Temperature 11 Â°C.

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Sunday and Monday, cloudy with outbreaks of rain, some heavy, accompanied by strong winds at times. Tuesday, drier and brighter, with winds moderating for a time. 

Issued at: 0400 on Fri 13 Dec 2013

(Text just updated)

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Northern UK storm warning-Go to the warnings page here:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1386979200

Edited December 13, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[The PIT]

No real change for us anyway overnight. So winds up to 50 and 60 during Saturday breezy Sunday. Anybody watching the Beeb forecast just now would have been totally mislead if they didn't listen properly. They would be expecting a quiet day tomorrow away from the Northern Ireland and Scotland. Not so unless they know something the GFS doesn't.

[Matty M]

interesting to note latest NAE has tomorrows low as deep as 944mb!

 

GME keeps niddle feature

 

[Coast]

 Just wondering how you make those GIFs very impressive

 

http://picasion.com/

 

You don't even have to save them to your drive, just hot-link.

 

GFS has now thrown up something totally unexpected this morning for tomorrow, it's all coming South?????

 

 

 

 

 

Totally confused now and concerned for the outside Christmas lights and decorations!

Edited December 13, 2013 by Coast

[Coast]

 

 

http://www.windfinder.com/weather-maps/forecast/unitedkingdom#6/54.877/-6.306

 

 

 

http://www.windfinder.com/weather-maps/forecast/unitedkingdom#5/55.404/-2.505

 

 

[Coast]

Met O fax:

 

 

 

But GFS has three lows in three days?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mistyqueen]

It's gonna be breezy anyroads, and it's actually staring to blaw yet another hoolie up here, but still incredibly mild at 13.8c. I do believe that temps will get a bit closer to normal over the weekend too. I'm thankful for that at least! I'll be checking the charts and forecasts through the day. Gets a bit addictive this weather watching doesn't it?

[P-M]

I was under the impression that away from Scotland and NI it would just be a little breezy with nowt to write home about?  Not expecting anything bad here just usual autumnal weather we aren't even under a warning.

[Coast]

Latest animated NMM from NW Extra and there are three pushes in from the Atlantic: