Possible severe Atlantic storm Saturday 14th December 2013 onwards

[Coast]

ESTOFEX: 

 

Storm Forecast

Valid: Fri 13 Dec 2013 06:00 to Sat 14 Dec 2013 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 12 Dec 2013 18:36

Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

 

A broad high pressure area and a dry air mass limit thunderstorm chances to a few spots. Enhanced and potentially electrified marine convection is forecast beneath a sharp mid-level trough north of Ireland/Scotland. Isolated storms are also possible over far N-Portugal/NW-Spain, as a weak front moves ashore (afternoon/evening hours) and due to a southbound moving cut-off low south of Portugal during the overnight hours. Nothing severe is anticipated.

 

 

[The PIT]

The storm was always coming south according to the GFS which is why just breezy in the south east is a bit misleading.

[Summer Sun]

Parts of North west England are back under a yellow warning now for tomorrow, north west wales is also under a warning as well

 

Issued at: 1055 on Fri 13 Dec 2013

 

Valid from: 0600 on Sat 14 Dec 2013

 

Valid to: 2100 on Sat 14 Dec 2013

 

South to southwest winds will increase across many northern parts of the UK on Saturday with gales becoming widespread across Scotland and Northern Ireland. There is the potential for severe gales to develop, particularly across northwest Scotland. Gusts of 60 to 70 mph are likely within the yellow area with a risk of gusts to 80 mph or more across exposed parts of northwest Scotland. Some heavy rain is also likely, particularly in the west. Large waves caused by the very strong winds could also lead to wave overtopping on exposed coastlines of western Scotland, particularly around high tide. The public should be aware that there could be disruption to travel and other outdoor events. Winds should ease late on Saturday. At this stage there remains some uncertainty regarding the extent of the strongest winds and so the public are advised to look out for further updates to this warning.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A vigorous depression is expected to run quickly northeastwards passing west of Scotland on Saturday. As this happens, very strong south to southwest winds are likely to develop across much of northern UK. At this stage there remains uncertainty in the extent of the strongest winds. It still remains possible that more of northern England and northwest Wales could also be affected.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1386979200&regionName=uk

[Boro Snow]

Recent IR imagery is impressive with regards to the developing low to the SW - Potent 'cloud head'

 

[Coast]

Boom! straight into the UK:

 

 

[Skullzrulerz]

So it seems there is going to be 3 storms in 3 days?

[Coast]

So it seems there is going to be 3 storms in 3 days?

 

I think there may also be more to come later next week too, but the three lows are on their way to us it seems. The first one is steaming towards us then coming up from the BoB right now:

 

 

 

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/natl.html

 

Here's the driver:

 

[Coast]

I think there may also be more to come later next week too

 

Nice, Emily's coming around to our place on Wednesday!

 

Gale-force winds of up to 90mph have been tipped to hit Britain before Christmas.

A so-called Storm Emily could spread across the country from the middle of next week, forecasters have warned.

 

Experts from the Weather Channel have named the storm after Victorian author Emily Brontë – the woman who wrote Wuthering Heights, and who died 165 years ago next Thursday. However, the Met Office insists pre-Christmas conditions remain uncertain, beyond expecting this weekend to be generally wet and windy. A large area of high pressure is expected to shift from central and southern Europe towards Britain from today.

 

Southern England should remain dry and bright tomorrow, with northern areas wetter and windier, while gales hit north-west Scotland, the Weather Channel suggested. From Monday onwards, the north could be brighter and the south rainier – only for a sunny Tuesday to offer brief respite before worsening conditions. Weather Channel meteorologist Leon Brown said: ‘From Thursday to Christmas there is a high risk of gales. ‘At the moment there is a 30 to 40 per cent risk of severe gales for central and southern Britain on Thursday. ‘Worst case is 70 to 90mph gusts across exposed parts of Wales and the south, but even 70mph gusts for central Britain would cause a lot of disruption.’

 

http://metro.co.uk/2013/12/13/90mph-storm-emily-to-strike-britain-next-week-4228974/

[The PIT]

Slight upgrade this evening by the GFS. Beeb still saying nothing for England tomorrow GFS saying otherwise. NMM a little more in line with the MET office idea of a breezy day away from the north west but it northern England will certainly be effected. 

[Snowyowl9]

Severe gales in the NW...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn241.html

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

These storms look great. I wonder what the mini low on Saturday night will produce?

[Sainsbo]

GFS is looking tasty if you're after some story weather next week.

 

 

Doesn't seem very fast moving either. 6 hours later, and it hasn't moved much at all.

 

 

Wonder if any of the other models will start to pick this up? NAVGEM and JMA both showed a similar scenario (not quite as bad as GFS) on their last run, but I guess we will have to wait and see about the ECM and UKMO

Edited December 13, 2013 by Sainsbo

[pip22]

Very stormy weather on Thursday? Bring it on!! 

 

Edited December 13, 2013 by pip22

[Liam J]

Gusts of 80-90mph+ on the 18z for next Thursday, and over land! 

 

Plenty of weather happening in the next few days. Be prepared for some notable damaging wind storms over the next week, starting with tomorrow - although not exceptionally windy, gusts still 60-70mph which could cause some local disruption.

 

Yikes! 

 

Mean speeds violent storm 11 to hurricane force.

Edited December 13, 2013 by Liam J

[pip22]

That is even worse than last week's windstorm!! :-@

[Zenarcher]

Updated Summary for the stormy weekend ahead,

 

Using the high res NMM model now,

 

Saturday 4am to 10am - The low to the West of the UK starts to move in bringing 60 to 75mph gusts across Ireland and Western Scotland. At this time the West coast of Ireland will see the highest winds with mean speeds reaching 48mph for most of this time.

 

 

11am to 4pm - As the low moves North the strong winds will start to move across the UK. During this time Ireland, Scotland, Wales and Northern England will see 55 to 65mph gusts but exposed parts have a high risk of 70 to 75mph. Western coastal parts will see mean speeds of 52mph.

 

 

5pm to 11pm - The low continues to move North bringing gusts over 60mph for the Northern Scottish Isles meanwhile England and Wales will get 40 to 55mph gusts. Mean speeds could reach over 35mph in parts of England and Wales and for the Northern Scottish Isles around 52mph mean speeds.

 

 

Sunday 6am to 10am - Another low comes across the Atlantic and this time it is even deeper but the good news is the worst of the winds will be out in the Atlantic and miss the land. The K5 Buoy will be one to watch it is in the direct path of very high wind speeds currently it could see 77mph mean speeds with gusts over 90mph. During the early hours of Sunday winds pick up across Western Ireland where 60mph gusts are likely. As it moves the winds will pick up for Western Scoland where 65mph gusts are likely.

 

 

Sunday 11am to 6pm - Winds across Northern parts of the UK will range from 50 to 65mph. Exposed parts and high ground areas will see much higher.

 

 

After 6pm it moves away from the UK as the winds ease although the Northern Scottish Isles will see strong winds for the rest of the day.

Edited December 13, 2013 by weathermaster

[lorenzo]

Looking at the surface plot on meteo our low is just a meagre little dot in a big ocean, about to undergo some rapid transformation and a 40mb bomb in the next 18 hrs. 987mb > 947mb by 1800z Sat, taking evening fax from Met Office into consideration.

 

Latest Sat Image

 

Loop this when you get tomorrow morning - will be worth a watch..

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

 

[Crepuscular Ray]

Amazing isn't it - how all that activity can spring up in such a short time.

[ZONE 51]

Not much I can add to the brilliant information on this thread but have done a wind map for you to admire ... or not..

 

TODAY- (and into the night time period)

Strong and potentially the most damaging winds affecting Northwest and West Scotland, Northern Scotland and the Northern Isles on Saturday (today), other areas likely to get severe gales are West and Northern Ireland and up the Irish Sea affecting coasts here, I think this could be affecting Wales also. For many other areas gales could become a problem even very windy in the SE / South and East where the edge of the storm could be felt mildly compared to Northern UK...

 

Edited December 14, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[The PIT]

Just showing itself off the coast of Ireland now. A little later than expected but on it's way..

[Beaufort12]

I'm in NW Ireland. Wind picking up a lot last 30 minutes

[Coast]

Just showing itself off the coast of Ireland now. A little later than expected but on it's way..

 

Here it comes;

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 14, 2013 by Coast

[Liam J]

Winds becoming more noticeable here, gusts howling at the windows. Not a pleasant Saturday to be going out Christmas shopping! 

[UV-RAY]

Just want to say a big thanks to all those who contribute here, some fantastic analysis and charts posted.

[lorenzo]

89mph highest gust recorded so far, albeit way up in the mountains Aonach Mor, 1130m. Uist and Tiree at just above sea level 68-70pmh.

 

Midweek sees a variety of solutions on the low.

 

GFS Hi Res

 

UKMO/GEM/ECM - GEM for once NOT going off on one and the more relaxed of the three.

 

 

GFS 06z

 

Out into the mid-range the trend continues towards Christmas week. GFS, and in particular the control run, along with a couple of the wilder ensembles ensure us weather geeks will have plenty to keep us entertained over Xmas.

 

Edit - fixing charts

Edited December 14, 2013 by lorenzo