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Possible severe Atlantic storm Wednesday 18th December 2013 onwards

Coast

By Coast
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

So the Meteociel.fr GFS charts are in MPH, knots or what?

 

Km/h :good:

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

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JK1 Contributor

JK1

Posted
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Humid & stormy
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex
Posted (edited)

Well this ECM chart would certainly ruin a few Christmas celebrations for many people! Some cold turkeys sitting around with no electric... Reminds me of boxing day 1998 Posted Image

Posted Imageecm13.gif Posted Imageecm44.gif

 

It's been a while since the outlook has been so disturbed with many potential severe wind events. Interesting times!! 

how much would it affect the south would there be much wind here if this was to happen ?

 

.

Edited by Liam J
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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

how much would it affect the south would there be much wind here if this was to happen ?

 

.

 

It's a long way off but pretty much all of the UK would be affected by strong winds.

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Zenarcher Seasoned

Zenarcher

Posted
Posted (edited)

Models still seem very uncertain even though its less than 72 hours away now.

 

At 48 hours there is a big difference between the GFS and NAE,

 

post-6686-0-92709600-1387213829_thumb.pn

 

The GFS has a deep low moving into Ireland but NAE doesn't make much of it on its 06z and 12z runs by making a rather weak low pass by Western Scotland.

 

Onto some of the other models that have completed their 12z runs I've made the image below to show the differences between the GFS, NAVGEM, JMA and the UKMO,

 

post-6686-0-79072900-1387214149_thumb.pn

 

To sum it up quickly,

 

GFS: Has the low furthest North West and overall the deepest at 955mb.

 

NAVGEM: Furthest North but not as deep at 965mb.

 

JMA and UKMO: Both very similar they have it in the same position just their deepness is around 960mb to 965mb.

Edited by weathermaster
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Bobby Seasoned

Bobby

Posted
Posted

Models still seem very uncertain even though its less than 72 hours away now.

 

At 48 hours there is a big difference between the GFS and NAE,

 

Posted Image48c.png

 

The GFS has a deep low moving into Ireland but NAE doesn't make much of it on its 06z and 12z runs by making a rather weak low pass by Western Scotland.

 

Onto some of the other models that have completed their 12z runs I've made the image below to show the differences between the GFS, NAVGEM, JMA and the UKMO,

 

Posted ImageCompare.png

 

To sum it up quickly,

 

GFS: Has the low furthest North West and overall the deepest at 955mb.

 

NAVGEM: Furthest North but not as deep at 965mb.

 

JMA and UKMO: Both very similar they have it in the same position just their deepness is around 960mb to 965mb.

 

Lots of energy = high entropy = lots of uncertainty. Ingredients are there for something nasty, unexpectedly so perhaps, or something more benign. Might come down to satellite/report watching in the end.

 

Can see the warm moist tropical air the system is sucking up from the south causing it to develop rapidly as it engages with colder air further north.

 

Posted Image  Posted Image

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knightrider Enthusiast

knightrider

Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
Posted

This is shaping up into 1 of the stormiest spells of weather I can remember, reminds me of the Christmas/New Year storms in 1997/98 wasn't that an ILL Nino year?  I hope the south sees some the big winds this time and not just the north like what always seems to be the case especially having been a little underwhelmed by St'Jude which let's be honest was nowhere near as bad as the hype suggested, most inland areas only saw a very brief spell of stormy winds even so only in the 50-60mph region not the 80-90mph that was predicted, I can't help noticing how much the media ramped up St'Jude though because the south was in the firing line Scotland has had far more powerful and prolonged storms in the last few weeks but you wouldn't have thought it as it's barely been mentioned on main news bulletins, again more attention was paid to the resulting storm surge down the East coast last time.

 

With regards to the approaching weather Wednesday night is looking interesting, Friday/Saturday also has potential but it's still far too way off to make anymore comment!

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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
Posted

ECM goes with GFS and sides with GME against the UKMO / GEM solutions.

 

ECM /GFS 

 

post-7292-0-07471400-1387218144_thumb.gipost-7292-0-31087800-1387218159_thumb.pn

 

post-7292-0-27282200-1387218151_thumb.gipost-7292-0-20964100-1387218168_thumb.pn

 

Amber warnings tomorrow? depending on how the 00z see things, expect the 00z to catch folks attention wrt the timeframe plotted bang on peak bombing of the system.

 

 

 

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knightrider Enthusiast

knightrider

Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
Posted

BBC forecast just now said gusts of 60mph possible in the south later on Wednesday with 80mph+ possible across Northern Ireland and Scotland so it appears to be a very widespread storm with pretty much all of the UK being effected, then he went on to say quieter Thursday before the next storm arrives on Friday would his be Storm 'Emily that everyone keeps mentioning in the media?  Posted Image

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Well looks like I'll miss out on Wednesday as we're sheltered from the south. So we'll probably notice the swing to westerly winds late on more than anything. Next question will be the track of the low a bit further south and we will be under the 60+ mph westerly band. Friday keeps downgrading although due to the direction for us it maybe stronger than Wednesdays storm.

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knightrider Enthusiast

knightrider

Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
Posted

Interestingly on MetO the storm later in the week looks to be more prolonged with strong gusts lasting from late Friday evening right through until midday Saturday a lot could change though!

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Interestingly on MetO the storm later in the week looks to be more prolonged with strong gusts lasting from late Friday evening right through until midday Saturday a lot could change though!

Should have seen the prediction a couple of days ago.  Since then the models have slowly been eating it for breakfast.

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knightrider Enthusiast

knightrider

Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
Posted

Most of the GEFS Ensembles continue to feature strong windstorms up to and beyond Christmas.

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

I don't see how anything can be predicted that far off, computer charts fluctuate all the time why even Wednesday's storms exact track and intensity hasn't been pinned down yet so it's a little early to be talking doom and gloom about the weather over Christmas. If the next few days are anything to go by and we have stormy weather leading into the weekend then I can see things quieting down by next week!

Should have seen the prediction a couple of days ago.  Since then the models have slowly been eating it for breakfast.

In what way do you mean eating it for breakfast?

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

I don't see how anything can be predicted that far off, computer charts fluctuate all the time why even Wednesday's storms exact track and intensity hasn't been pinned down yet so it's a little early to be talking doom and gloom about the weather over Christmas. If the next few days are anything to go by and we have stormy weather leading into the weekend then I can see things quieting down by next week!

In what way do you mean eating it for breakfast?

Well originally it had the whole country under 60 mph and not just for a few hours either. Looked fantastic and made Wednesdays look like a stroll in the park. Anyway all eyes on Wednesday for now.

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knightrider Enthusiast

knightrider

Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
Posted

I luv how Wendy Hurell on BBC London just said Wednesday onwards is looking quite breezy either she knows the reality is once again the media are ramping or she has just delivered the biggest understatement in history lol.

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Rammie Enthusiast

Rammie

Posted
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.
Posted

BBC sw weather just now, didn't even mention wind for Wednesday. The arrows said 21mph. He only mentioned rain. It wasn't Ian F.!

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Richie V Enthusiast

Richie V

Posted
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL
Posted

Hi pit,

We too are very sheltered from southerlies, minus 20mph or so off the forecast when in a southerly. Plus 15 on the forecast when west or NW, N

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knightrider Enthusiast

knightrider

Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
Posted

BBC sw weather just now, didn't even mention wind for Wednesday. The arrows said 21mph. He only mentioned rain. It wasn't Ian F.!

The arrows indicate the average wind so gusts will be more like double that 40mph+ certainly worth keeping an eye on!

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Hi pit,We too are very sheltered from southerlies, minus 20mph or so off the forecast when in a southerly. Plus 15 on the forecast when west or NW, N

NMM has SSE for us Thursday and Friday so knock 40 mph of the figures. Never ever had a SE gale here. GFS has a more SSW so we will have to wait and see.

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knightrider Enthusiast

knightrider

Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
Posted

I'm surprised at how quiet it is on here tonight considering with got a succession of potentially very stormy spells of weather on the way!

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rich1974 Apprentice

rich1974

Posted
  • Location: Aldermaston, Nr Newbury/Reading
  • Location: Aldermaston, Nr Newbury/Reading
Posted

I'm surprised at how quiet it is on here tonight considering with got a succession of potentially very stormy spells of weather on the way!

Funny as I was just thinking the same as you, in the past it's been every minute or so with people writing something, I keep thinking it must be dinner time and people will be around later but still not a lot is going on here.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

I'm surprised at how quiet it is on here tonight considering with got a succession of potentially very stormy spells of weather on the way!

They will all be on the model thread trying to spot that endangered species a snow flake at T384.

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