Possible severe Atlantic storm Wednesday 18th December 2013 onwards

[Eero Hermann]

I use google translation of

 

We will also be Christmas without snow in

https://www.facebook.com/groups/hermanneero27/

[lorenzo]

hi 

 

I'm from Estonia

 

Welcome Eero. Hope you enjoy Netweather

[Eero Hermann]

Welcome Eero. Hope you enjoy Netweather

still like

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Sadly not, I appreciate that we are apparently a hardy bunch and the jest within, so not having a go. Reality is that the last system caused fatalities and it was Meto warned, timing is rotten, again risk of sustained wind profile at rush hour where this a school run before Xmas.

 

For a good example of where no matter what warnings are issued the inevitable finds a way, watch this.. Driver gets outta there sharpish..

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-25372502

 

 

As much as I love the meteorological aspect of seeing these systems spawn from the pressure gradient of the subdued heights and vortex transfer, truth remains that a lot of folks will still be caught out by the unforeseen.

There are always people that think they are invincible, in the last few months we have had an idiot in Norfolk driving his 4WD vehicle through deep floods at Welney, a couple of weeks ago someone almost washed off a cost road by waves and now this example.  Some people are idiots

[Eero Hermann]

http://www.sheffieldweather.co.uk/Live%20Weather.htm

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/ 

[Eero Hermann]

In Estonia, there is no snow on the ground

[alexisj9]

http://www.sheffieldweather.co.uk/Live%20Weather.htm

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/ 

Thanks for the wind link.

[ZONE 51]

Funny as I was just thinking the same as you, in the past it's been every minute or so with people writing something, I keep thinking it must be dinner time and people will be around later but still not a lot is going on here.

The threads on a particular weather event usually get very busy (or more interest is you like) nearer to the time of event, and it's at the busiest when snow is on the way

[Eero Hermann]

How to post images

[Richie V]

That is The Pits station

http://www.sheffieldweather.co.uk/Live%20Weather.htm

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/ 

[Zenarcher]

18z GFS shows the low slightly deeper but the mean wind speeds have been lowered slightly still over 60mph for Western Scotland and Hurricane Force winds for Western Ireland.

 

18z NAE model is starting to pick up the low now but still shows nothing like the GFS.

 

Interesting to see the 18z NAVGEM show a 965mb low over Western Scotland the exact same as the UKMO. Still big differences between the models in a short timeframe.

[SteveCoops]

Just put this in the SE thread - Latest interpretations of GFS (XCWeather, Metcheck etc) are spreading out the short sharp 60+MPH Friday night shock into all day Saturday 40-50MPH winds for me. Weds night still in the 50+MPH category.

[Zenarcher]

Here's a summary for anyone confused about the so many talked about storms. So far December has been busy we have already had 3 storms in the first half of the month.

 

Tuesday 17th - Not a storm but seems to have been forgotten high pressure to the UK's East and a low over Iceland make the isobars very tight over Western Scotland during Tuesday evening and Monday night with average speeds over 50mph and gusts of 65mph likely.

 

 

Wednesday 18th and Thursday 19th - What this thread is all about the most talked about thing for this week.

 

Wednesday 9pm average wind speeds over 70mph for the west coasts of Ireland and gusts could easily reach over 85mph,

 

 

Early hours of Thursday 3am mean speeds over 60mph across Western Scotland,

 

 

That's all really within the reliable timeframe but with the current theme of weather more stormy weather could be on the way next week.

Edited December 16, 2013 by weathermaster

[ZONE 51]

Just posting some mixed locations so you can look at the general weather forecast, simply put a STORMY week/wkend, and affecting all areas at some point and continuing next week :

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Heathrow

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Cambridge

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Folkestone

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Swansea

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Limerick

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Flintshire

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Rhyl

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Ballycastle

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Portree

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/workington

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/penzance

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Weymouth

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/bridlington

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Newcastle

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/basingstoke

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Rum

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Aberdeen

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Lerwick

-Blizzards indicated for Lerwick next week

 

(data - XCWEATHER)

Time Zone: GMT (UTC+0) Forecast Run GFS: Mon 18Z

Edited December 16, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[BurntFishTrousers]

For a good example of where no matter what warnings are issued the inevitable finds a way, watch this.. Driver gets outta there sharpish..

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-25372502

 

 

 

 

 

A report is now being sent to the Proscurator Fiscal

[Beaufort12]

Downgrades for Ireland as I expected. Storm kinks North sooner than 18 GFS

[The PIT]

Further north on Wednesday so pretty well out of the way of anything of note here. Sheltered from the South so won't notice anything and the later westerlies look breezy with gusts into the 40's. Nothing noteworthy for Friday either here although winds back to the south west. Gusts lower fifties.

Certainly a nasty day on Wednesday for Northern Ireland and Scotland though.

[Coast]

GFS has strong sustained wind and gusts starting as early as this evening for Ireland and Western Scotland:

 

 

 

 

 

Here's the current position out in the Atlantic:

 

 

 

 

Jet stream forecast animated up to 12z on Thursday, look how it takes a fork out to the South and up the Channel from the SW:

 

Edited December 17, 2013 by Coast

[alexisj9]

The little wave is more noticable in todays run, it even gets a 1000 reading just over the south east. Will be some gusts asociated with that.

[Coast]

Brace yourself: high winds may have eased but 70mph Storm Emily is on the way

 

Storm Emily is expected to wreak havoc when it hits the UK with weather experts warning of gusts in excess of 100mph.

 

While Scotland and the north of England will be worst hit, Northern Ireland is set for gales of up to 70mph on Thursday. A severe weather warning has been issued ahead of the storm, which has the potential to seriously disrupt travel, uproot trees and rip roof tiles from properties. The weather system has been named Storm Emily after Emily Brontë, the author who died on December 19, 165 years ago, and who wrote Wuthering Heights which featured constant stormy weather.

 

George Goodfellow, a forecaster with MeteoGroup, told the Belfast Telegraph wind speeds will pick up from late Wednesday evening. "There will be really strong winds throughout Thursday for much of Northern Ireland," he said. "We are predicting anything up to 70mph. "The temperature will probably be in and around six or seven degrees centigrade though it will feel colder with the wind. "We are also expecting some heavy rain." Mr Goodfellow said it was difficult to predict how long the stormy weather would continue, but said the wet and windy conditions look set to remain in the run-up to Christmas.

 

Until Wednesday evening Northern Ireland is set for highly changeable weather, with a mixture of short sunny spells and heavy downpours expected. Gale force winds caused traffic and travel disruption as they lashed Northern Ireland over the weekend. The Met Office issued a weather warning for Saturday and yesterday after widespread gales were forecast for Saturday along with heavy rain.

 

 

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/brace-yourself-high-winds-may-have-eased-but-70mph-storm-emily-is-on-the-way-29841182.html

[Coast]

Yes I know, it's the Daily Excess, but I've pruned it to the most informative bits:

 

The first of the two sprawling weather systems, known as Storm Emily, will begin sweeping across the UK tomorrow night, bringing gale-force southerly winds across Wales and western England. Winds will increase in ferocity with the worst conditions north of the border, where gusts of up to 100mph could cause structural damage. As temperatures fall, heavy rain will quickly turn to snow, leading to blizzard conditions across higher ground in the North. Forecasters named the first storm after Wuthering Heights author Emily Bronte, who died 165 years ago on Thursday – the day the weather system is expected to be at its worst.

 

And they predicted the biggest gusts could be between 80 and 100mph. Last night the Met Office issued severe weather warnings for Wednesday night. A spokesman said: “Severe gale force winds are likely to affect parts of Northern Ireland, central and northern Scotland on Wednesday night and early on Thursday gusts may exceed 80mph locally. “The wind will lead to large waves with some coastal over-topping possible. In addition, persistent heavy rain will quickly clear from Scotland leaving squally wintry showers. “The public should be aware of the potential for disruption from this combination of weather events.â€

 

After Emily, long-range forecasters warned that a second system – set to sweep in just before Christmas Day – could be equally powerful, with high winds and rain. Weather Channel forecaster Leon Brown said: “There will be a lull in the winds (today) with a ridge of high pressure over the UK, and the best day of the week for much of the UK, although some rain may linger over the far South-east in Kent and East Sussex. But winds then increase again for tomorrow with strong to gale force southerly winds by evening across Wales and western England.

 

“The storm to watch, which we are naming Emily, will swing past Northern Ireland to north-west Scotland late tomorrow night to early Thursday. “The areas at most risk are the far north of Ireland to western Scotland in the early hours of Thursday. Peak mean speeds may reach 60 to 70mph over the Hebrides with gusts of 90 to 100mph.†There were warnings it could mean treacherous driving conditions with widespread travel disruption. But after Emily has passed, he warned that the country will then be hit by the second system in the run-up to Christmas week.

 

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/449099/Deadly-100mph-storms-to-hit-Britain-on-Christmas-day

 

 

[Matty M]

Storm ends up on familiar track to Iceland,

 

UKM (Model) embarrassed itself with calling the intensity of this disturbance in recent days.

 

Has ended up being so developed now that is tracking well north.

 

Most away from northwestern coasts will get off lightly.

Edited December 17, 2013 by Matty M

[Summer Sun]

The yellow warning for strong winds comes into operation at 21:05 tomorrow it remains unchanged so far

 

Over 40mm rainfall is likely quite widely across the yellow area, with 60-80mm possible across some upland areas.

 

Severe gale force winds are likely to affect parts of Northern Ireland, central and northern Scotland on Wednesday night and early on Thursday; gusts may exceed 80 mph locally.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1387324800&regionName=uk

Edited December 17, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Coast]

NMM high-res for later into tomorrow night, even the South coast comes in for some 60 mph gusts, but look towards Scotland:

 

 

 

[Coast]

 

Rain tomorrow night into Thursday first thing: