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Scotland - Regional Discussion 16/12/2013 >


LomondSnowstorm

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

The day here started off with sun and lovely blue skies. Since I had the morning off I went for a run in the local woods between school run and school nativity play run (the reason for the morning off). No idea what the exact temperature was but it was cool, but not overly cold feeling. The ground was pretty hard/dry/frozen for the most part but no real signs of frost on the vegetation. Didn't take long though for a sheet of grey cloud to slither in and ruin the feel of the day.

 

The weather station data from Dyce shows the recent cooling trend with the approximate recent daily max temps being...

 

Thu 12th - 13C

Fri 13th - 11C

Sat 14th - 11C

Sun 15th - 9C

Mon 16th - 8C

Tue 17th - 6C (as of 15:00)

 

Lets hope now that we're back down to around average for the time of year that it either stays there, or continues downwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

Bet is on at my work 7/2 for a white christmas Glasgow. We have a 10 person syndicate at £2.00 a shot. In order to get the money I had to agree to return £1.00 to each member in the result of a no snow! I am confident this year ...but I say that most years!

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Bet is on at my work 7/2 for a white christmas Glasgow. We have a 10 person syndicate at £2.00 a shot. In order to get the money I had to agree to return £1.00 to each member in the result of a no snow! I am confident this year ...but I say that most years!

So lets see, 10 x £2 = £20 @7/2  = £70 if you win, or £7 per person

If you lose then you are down your £2 + (9 x £1) = £11

 

Alternatively, you forget the others, who are too scared/mean to risk the full £2, and stick £11 on yourself, giving a profit of £38.50 if you win.

 

So in either case you have a potential loss of £11, but in the later case you've increased your potential profit from £7 to £38.50. I know which option I'd choose!

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Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)

Does BUS still post in this thread? Haven't seen any of posts in good while?

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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

Geminids visible here this morning before 1st light because the moon was hiding behind a big bank of cloud. Sounds like that was our last chance though.

 

Re animal models... I was out all day today and saw no mammals or birds so reckon they're hibernating due to upcoming snowmaggedon. Possibly. Also the moon is possibly made of Gouda.

 

Untreated roads early today were slick with icy glaze - frozen slush from overnight sleet - above about 250m. 4WD and winters made it fun though...  Cairngorms were looking quite white but evidently not enough snow for the sporty downhillers. Could be some good winter walks (Scotster!) if you can dodge the gales...

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Arrived in Fort William today, was a nice drive through Caingorms with clear skys at times and plenty of snow on the higher mountains, Nevis range is coming on well to. An interesting few days coming up, im glad im up here to enjoy it.

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Tyrone
  • Location: Co.Tyrone

I'm really beginning to lose my patience with the model output discuss thread and various other threads on this forum, it seems that in the last two years there's been a considerable increase in the number of posters that genuinely seem to be out to deliberately get people's spirits down. It's just so incredibly obvious what they're up to and I cannot for the life of me understand why people feel the need to use such strong, excessive language and make assertions about entire months of winter when meteorology is such an unknown science in comparison to other fields.

 

Yes, we're all here to learn and have fun, but this is just getting daft and somewhat malicious now, causing me to venture ever less from the Scottish thread. 

 

Scottish Model Output Discussion anyone? Posted Image

yup totally agree - how about we Irish join as wellPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

I'm really beginning to lose my patience with the model output discuss thread and various other threads on this forum, it seems that in the last two years there's been a considerable increase in the number of posters that genuinely seem to be out to deliberately get people's spirits down. It's just so incredibly obvious what they're up to and I cannot for the life of me understand why people feel the need to use such strong, excessive language and make assertions about entire months of winter when meteorology is such an unknown science in comparison to other fields.

 

Yes, we're all here to learn and have fun, but this is just getting daft and somewhat malicious now, causing me to venture ever less from the Scottish thread. 

 

Scottish Model Output Discussion anyone? Posted Image

 

I suggested something like this a while back but the consensus was to keep all Scottish posts (ie model-related, observations, banter, etc.) in the same thread.  My reason was different to yours tho - sometimes I only have a minute and I want to have a quick read of Scottish model developments, and save the rest for some fun later. When this thread gets busy, the pages turn really fast...

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Posted
  • Location: Perth (Huntingtowerfield, 3 miles West) asl 0m
  • Weather Preferences: A foggy and frosty morning with newly fallen pristine snow - Paradise!
  • Location: Perth (Huntingtowerfield, 3 miles West) asl 0m

there has been a distinct lack of animal modelling on this thread this year........i think we need to up our instances of this full proof forecasting procedure....... I have now not seen my grey squirrel in the garden for 5 months......... this tells me he is hibernating away because of impending snowmageddon or most likely the poor wee guy is broon bread!!

 

Strange EDO ours hasn't been seen for about the same length of time, that is too much of a coincidence.

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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

My dog and I got really wet when we were out walking yesterday morning, does that mean it was raining? Posted Image

 

Or the neighbour's got a new water cannon Posted Image  for Xmas... Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
  • Weather Preferences: appropriately seasonal
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire

Where's the folks OTR?

 

Up by Kingussie. 

 

Felt notably cooler (more normal) the past couple of days and black ice on the school run this morning. I thought it was Thursday that was supposed to be blowy but I see MetO are going with warning for warnings from tomorrow to saturday? With snow symbols for the west? Interesting few days then. 

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Posted
  • Location: Evanton ,highlands ,scotland
  • Location: Evanton ,highlands ,scotland

really windy here.gusting to 71.4 mph 

daughter is stuck on the other side of the minch ,luckily  she has a sister over there to stay with she was warned and was trying to beat it just not quick enough 

999.9 mb at the moment 

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Posted
  • Location: Clarkston, Glasgow (75m asl)
  • Location: Clarkston, Glasgow (75m asl)

BBC Scotland forecast looked quite lively for my possible cycle (south) home. Considering public transport. I did laugh when The Minches got mentioned as getting battered by strong winds and my wife piped up and said 'I wouldn't like to live in the Minches'. Posted Image

 

Sad/depressing Xmas song offering tonight I'm afraid. Sorry! Just warning you in advance. I know he is now in a better place now than he was when he wrote this song as I spoke to him last week. Malcolm Middleton 'Burst Noel'.

 

 

Enjoy (if you can) and I promise a more upbeat one tomorrow!Posted Image

Edited by chemikal
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Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

So lets see, 10 x £2 = £20 @7/2  = £70 if you win, or £7 per person

If you lose then you are down your £2 + (9 x £1) = £11

 

Alternatively, you forget the others, who are too scared/mean to risk the full £2, and stick £11 on yourself, giving a profit of £38.50 if you win.

 

So in either case you have a potential loss of £11, but in the later case you've increased your potential profit from £7 to £38.50. I know which option I'd choose!

I had calculated £9 back each if you include the stake.DOH could be wrong.So for my £2  get £9 back or lose £9 to other people.I was righting off my own bet.Anyway I am going to win so it's academic.lol

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Gusts around 75mph here in Fort William.

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Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW :-D
  • Location: Perth, Scotland

Does BUS still post in this thread? Haven't seen any of posts in good while?

I was just think the same myself the other day we've not seen BUS for a wee while? Edited by Allyw12
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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

if you want a nosy here you go 

http://www.eoropaidh.co.uk/

 

Direach dubh dorchadas ann an Eoropaidh a-nochd? Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh

Well I'm no happy. All the snaw is over on the west and its not fair. When are we getting some on the east side?

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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

Well I'm no happy. All the snaw is over on the west and its not fair. When are we getting some on the east side?

Next month?  LS reckoned so in his winter forescast I think.

 

Getting a bit draughty out.

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

Howling southerly wind out there but ground drying up and dust blowing about. Long day cutting and dehorning calves today with vet .Didn"t realise how much they had grown so pushing and shoving them has used a few muscles that haven"t been used for a while so sore tonight.  Will see a big difference  in a months time in them as they have had a selenium and copper  trace element dose as well as the farm  is very deficient in a lot of trace elements.

Edited by Northernlights
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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

fergieweather kind enough to provide some UKMO charts re: Snow potential.

 

Link here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78787-model-output-discussion-17th-dec2013-12z-onwards/page-6#entry2864303

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Next month?  LS reckoned so in his winter forescast I think.

 

Getting a bit draughty out.

 

Aye, I had the mother of all beasterlies for late January. Thus far the forecast is panning out relatively well, aside from a somewhat more cyclonic dominated pattern than expected, and there's nothing in there for the next 70+ days of winter that I'd alter at this stage, so I'm still saying late January into February is the main area of interest for those in the east.

The charts Lorenzo posted up just there from Ian F though are very promising for central Scotland, with WBFL sub 400m and precipitation pushing well inland. I wouldn't be surprised to see some snow cropping up further east as well given the strength of the flow, albeit with somewhat reduced intensity, and the prognosis for this remains the same as it was when I did my last big post. I'll maybe have a go at a paint job if my revision tomorrow goes well but if not I'll hopefully at least be able to post from the 4km UKMO model (correct me if I'm wrong but I believe that's the UKV?) which goes public tomorrow. Added to that a somewhat enhanced chance of a white Christmas and a reasonable signal for some kind of short lived westerly with an Arctic source to follow along with the continued risk of gales and we certainly aren't lacking interesting weather over the festive season.

Just to add to this the average temperature ensembles for Midlothian show an average to cool picture becoming steadily colder over time. A lack of night frosts perhaps but maxima above 5C are likely to become increasingly scarce as we move towards New Year...

Posted Image

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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