South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 18/12/13

[Snowangel-MK]

Welcome to the new thread everyone 

 

This is a regional thread to discuss the latest developments in London, the South East and East Anglia ....

 

 

 

 

link to the previous one here....

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78696-south-east-east-anglia-regional-weather-discussion-081213/page-41

Edited December 17, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[john pike]

hi all

 

sorry if i seem like a grumpy so and so

 

i will only go on snow predictions for our area only

 

and do not want to get peoples hopes up if i do not think we will see any

 

i will point out that i will  post the odd ramp or 2 still though

[john pike]

 

fi still on the 23rd here

 

these overall do not look warm

 

one thing i hope is wrong is the sheer amount of rain showing on these

[alexisj9]

hi all

 

sorry if i seem like a grumpy so and so

 

i will only go on snow predictions for our area only

 

and do not want to get peoples hopes up if i do not think we will see any

 

i will point out that i will  post the odd ramp or 2 still though

Your fine, I think snow is unlikely as well, not really any point in ramping something so unlikely for us. I can understand it is possible in the places highlighted by the head forecaster on what Ian f posted cause they are elevated. All west of our region other then may be some of the south downs.

[john pike]

 

not a great amount there tonight

 

off to bed now

 

goodnight all

[Snowangel-MK]

Please someone tell me it's going to be really cold on Monday night...

 

I've spent three hours late night shopping for two Christmas jumpers this evening because the group of friends we are going out with thought it would be fun if we all wear them ....Christmas jumpers had sold out in most places in MK but I eventually found something, mine is too dear two reindeer and Mr P's is a Christmas pudding ....

 

 

It wouldn't be so bad if we were going to an ice bar not a vodka bar - I'm going to be hot, I only ever wear a jumper when it snows !!

Edited December 18, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[Charltonkerry]

Morning all, still feeling like I been run over by a double decker bus, this lurgi is vicious, seem to be dry out this morning, can't throw a sicky today as I got a really important meeting which I must attend and an interview. Didn't plan that very well. Been trying for this meeting for 2 years, can't believe how ill I feel, this morning, I think coasts picture below will be the appropriate attire.

Now its light can say its a lovely morning, cloud free sky, no frost but don't think we where that far away.

Edited December 18, 2013 by Charltonkerry

[Captain Shortwave]

Morning all, pretty clear start to the day here, hopefully it will last through today

[Coast]

Morning all, still feeling like I been run over by a double decker bus, this lurgi is vicious, seem to be dry out this morning, can't throw a sicky today as I got a really important meeting which I must attend and an interview. Didn't plan that very well.

 

Morning CK.

 

I've just had this Skyped in from the other meeting attendees, they're ready for you:

 

[Jax]

Morning all

 

Tried that lie in thing but failed again this morning (back to work tomorrow so bet you I will need it then), not sure what conditions are like out, forecast is not looking good though.

 

 

Need to get a card in the post today so will require a venture out this morning, but that should be the extent of my needs to go out (handy as I want to catch up and continue on some art).

 

Anyone watch the Dressage last night?

[Coast]

Morning all,

 

Nice moon this morning, looked much better than in my pathetic picture, just nice to see some clear sky really.

 

Morning Ian!

 

I followed that bright moon in as it peeked through the clouds and at one point I had the sun rising to my right and the fat full moon to my left, exchanging pleasantries before Mother Nature takes over later today and throws the kitchen sink at us.

 

Here she is, lining up to land at Heathrow or Gatwick or Boris Island or anywhere over the UK really!

 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

 

Lovely morning here at the moment but it will turn wet and windy later in the day, strongest winds likely to be on the south coast, in the extreme west of our region, highest gusts in the 60s mph, possibly touching 70. Then rain clearing and winds easing, after midnight. Tomorrow looks to be colder but drier, as does Friday, then more wet and windy arriving overnight into Saturday. Most notable feature of the weather over the weekend, looks to be the strength of the wind, although nothing untoward yet.

 

Just a quick mention regarding possible development of a wave depression out in the Atlantic on Xmas Day, overnight model runs showing this rushing eastwards to become a notable feature on Boxing Day. Fortunately this possible scenario is still way out at t192 and obviously subject to fluctuation but its certainly something to keep an eye on, as we head into Xmas week. 

 

It certainly looks as if we're entering a period of volatile weather, during the 2nd half of December, how volatile only time will tell, very little chance of any sustained cold and wintry weather in our region before the end of the year though, indeed for the whole of the UK either, one would think.

 

Tom.

Edited December 18, 2013 by Kentish CZ

[Lauren]

Please someone tell me it's going to be really cold on Monday night...

 

I've spent three hours late night shopping for two Christmas jumpers this evening because the group of friends we are going out with thought it would be fun if we all wear them ....Christmas jumpers had sold out in most places in MK but I eventually found something, mine is too dear two reindeer and Mr P's is a Christmas pudding ....

 

$T2eC16FHJH4FHdeeCbQbBSQHbOM(rw~~60_35.JPG

 

It wouldn't be so bad if we were going to an ice bar not a vodka bar - I'm going to be hot, I only ever wear a jumper when it snows !!

Our family Christmas day is Christmas jumper dress code. Plus I'm helping cooking. I need it to be cold so I don't die of heat exhaustion!

[Tim Bland]

Chance of f ew flkes in the NE of the region tommorow afternoon. Especialy over the chilterns / cotsworlds. Main models don't make much of it but the high res models eg NAE has band of wet show clipping Herts / Beds / Bucks / N cambs late afternoon

[alexisj9]

Doesn't seem to be showing on the met office, but it seems quite blustery already this morning.

[Steve C]

Morning all.

 

Bright start here.

 

Definitely some worrying charts on GFS, as above and ECM, between Xmas Eve and Boxing Day. I for one, hope we aren't affected.

 

Here's the ECM chart for midnight Xmas Day - Boxing Day.

 

Edited December 18, 2013 by Steve C

[NO LONGER POSTING]

 

Jesus..

[Jax]

Morning all again, still not been out yet, but will do soon so I catch the post collection.

 

 

Not liking the Xmas week model output one bit, and hope it all changes and turns calmer near the time else a lot of people are going to have the important few days next week ruined.

[Coast]

Not liking the Xmas week model output one bit, and hope it all changes and turns calmer near the time else a lot of people are going to have the important few days next week ruined.

 

It's not looking good currently and the only saving is that many people will be staying at home and not commuting. I'll look at it in more detail in the Severe Weather Discussion area - maybe it warrants a new one thread opening.

 

GFS is currently updating so I'll wait until the latest run is clearer around the Christmas period.

[Jimmyh]

Morning all.

 

Bright start here.

 

Definitely some worrying charts on GFS, as above and ECM, between Xmas Eve and Boxing Day. I for one, hope we aren't affected.

 

Here's the ECM chart for midnight Xmas Day - Boxing Day.

 

ecm500.192 (2).png

i have to agree this is worry as well. first started showing on GEFS yesterday

[Jax]

It's not looking good currently and the only saving is that many people will be staying at home and not commuting. I'll look at it in more detail in the Severe Weather Discussion area - maybe it warrants a new one thread opening.

 

GFS is currently updating so I'll wait until the latest run is clearer around the Christmas period.

Maybe yes, it is the fact it now appears to be trending as well as in the hi-res of the GFS too. And the other models seem to be joining the same hymn sheet now (even the UKMO at 144).

[Coast]

Maybe yes, it is the fact it now appears to be trending as well as in the hi-res of the GFS too. And the other models seem to be joining the same hymn sheet now (even the UKMO at 144).

 

New thread to look at that potential:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78796-possible-severe-atlantic-storm-christmas-day-and-boxing-day/

[Coast]

Here comes the Met O warning update!

 

Yellow warning of Wind

 

Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Portsmouth, Southampton, West Sussex

 

Issued at: 

1116 on Wed 18 Dec 2013

 

Valid from: 

1500 on Wed 18 Dec 2013

 

Valid to: 

2200 on Wed 18 Dec 2013

 

Heavy rain and gales will affect south and west Wales, southwest England and some southern coastal counties of England on Wednesday evening. Gusts will reach 50 to 60 mph quite widely, with 70 mph gusts possible in exposed coastal areas. Heavy rain may also cause some localised flooding across parts of Wales and southwest England. The rain will clear and strongest winds will ease from the west.

 

The public should be aware of the potential for minor disruption. A deep area of low pressure will pass close to northwest Scotland during Wednesday evening, extending bands of heavy rain and gales across many areas during Wednesday afternoon and evening. Strongest gusts are likely in coastal areas exposed to the southerly winds. Heaviest rain will be on high ground in the west, with the potential for both river and surface water flooding.

 

A deep area of low pressure will pass close to northwest Scotland during Wednesday evening, extending bands of heavy rain and gales across many areas during Wednesday afternoon and evening. Strongest gusts are likely in coastal areas exposed to the southerly winds. Heaviest rain will be on high ground in the west, with the potential for both river and surface water flooding.

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=se&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1387324800

[Keraunic]

Mornin each. Blimus!!! It's actually bright and sunny in Ippy this morning. Very nice. It was a tad misty first thing but that's cleared off now.

We were up at 02:30 this morning with a fractious child. Did go back to bed about 05:30 butI am now a bit tired.

Have a good day, everyone.

[Jax]

Mornin each. Blimus!!! It's actually bright and sunny in Ippy this morning. Very nice. It was a tad misty first thing but that's cleared off now.

We were up at 02:30 this morning with a fractious child. Did go back to bed about 05:30 butI am now a bit tired.

Have a good day, everyone.

Started to cloud over here now and breeze is picking up, looks like the coming bad weather is arriving, need to nip out to the post box then before it gets here then that is me done for the day and an afternoon/evening of drawing/painting (and need to do some ironing in there somewhere too).