Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I can see them dropping this feature a lot .... 

[Gael_Force]

The HIRLAM 06Z sees it but keeps a shallow wave feature.

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The HIRLAM 06Z sees it but keeps a shallow wave feature.

 

 

This is how I see it coming off, these features pop up at about 24 hours out and get dropped within 6 hrs 

[joggs]

I hope its not too bad,here in West Yorkshire,Bingley recieve some bad winds with features like that been shown due to winds funneling through the valley.

[knightrider]

MetO predicts 55-65mph inlands gusts for the London region on Monday night with 70-80mph around SE coastline!

[Skullzrulerz]

3-5 days for xmas storm.

[ancientsolar]

I saw this little low sub-low pressure on the forecast charts yesterday, but it wasnt showing as a low pressure then. Now it does look like a dangerous potential storm.Looking towards Christmas day it is almost impossible to know the positioning of those storms... and if you really want to look at the 27th December.! Ouch! 

[Snow free zone]

No mention of this feature tomorrow at the moment from the met office.  Seems only the GFS that really develops it into a potentially disruptive low.

 

I'd have thought that if there was a real cause for concern at 36hrs out more would have been made of it. Will be interesting if the GFS is on to something, or if it is up to its usual tricks of over developing a low.  It has been there for the last 3 runs now though ..... 

[Liam J]

The hi-res NMM model also develops a very intense wave running through N England. See my previous post. 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78796-possible-severe-atlantic-storm-christmas-day-and-boxing-day/page-4#entry2867005

Edited December 20, 2013 by Liam J

[Snow free zone]

Cheers Liam.

Note to self - read the rest of the thread before posting 

[Mapantz]

The new Euro4 from the UKMO doesn't even entertain the idea, neither does the NAVGEM, the NAE keeps it shallow too..

 

   

 

The WRF really ramps it up..

 

 

 

I'm sure the MO have their eye on this, it's quite possible that a flash warning could be issued but I have a feeling that the 12Z on the other models will flatten this out to nothing more than a slight wave, we'll see at around 15:45 ish.

 

Monday is looking a nightmare though, particularly in the south, warnings are bound to be added/extended, probably for rain and wind.

 

Well, the MO have added warnings for winds on Monday and Tuesday, nothing regarding Saturday at this stage.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1387756800&regionName=ee

Edited December 20, 2013 by Mapantz

[Liam J]

First warning issued for Saturday, locally gusts up to 90mph. 

 

Think i'd have waited until this evenings runs first... 

 

 

 

 

[alexisj9]

MetO predicts 55-65mph inlands gusts for the London region on Monday night with 70-80mph around SE coastline!

No thanks.

[Richie V]

Hi liam, is the warning above from met office?

Ric

[Coast]

Latest GFS not stacking up well for Monday for the South:

 

 

 

 

I feel like a boxer who's been caught on the ropes and the opponent keeps punching even though the referee says stop!

[Snowyowl9]

First warning issued for Saturday, locally gusts up to 90mph. 

 

Think i'd have waited until this evenings runs first... 

 

52b42f1bec8d83f84100000f.jpeg

XC weather is predicting some very high winds tomorrow upto 82 in wales and even inland its higher than I`ve seen..

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/observations

[Mapantz]

Hi liam, is the warning above from met office?Ric

 

Looks like a Metcheck map Richie.

[Sussex Jules]

Met Office have yellow warnings out for the wind on Monday.

[Summer Sun]

The met office have early warnings out for strong winds and heavy rain on Monday and Tuesday

 

Issued at: 1142 on Fri 20 Dec 2013

 

Valid from: 0600 on Mon 23 Dec 2013

 

Valid to: 1200 on Tue 24 Dec 2013

 

A very deep area of low pressure will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to much of the UK from Monday morning, through to late Tuesday morning. There is the potential for widespread gales with gusts of 70 mph for much of Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, southern and northwest England. Gusts of 80-90 mph are possible, with the greatest likelihood of these values across west Scotland. The public should be aware of the potential for significant disruption to travel due to the very strong winds and also the risk of some flooding issues thanks to the heavy rain.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

An area of low pressure is expected to develop in the Atlantic on Sunday, deepening rapidly to pass just to the NW of the UK on Monday and into Tuesday. This will bring stormy conditions to the UK on Monday and Tuesday with the strongest winds likely along coastlines exposed to the south and west. Heavy rain is expected with this low pressure system and given recent wet conditions some flooding issues are possible. With such a rapid development there remains some uncertainty around the precise depth and track of this system, and hence the areas most likely to be affected by the strongest winds and heavy rain. This alert is likely to be updated in the coming days.

 

Issued at: 1223 on Thu 19 Dec 2013

 

Valid from: 0600 on Mon 23 Dec 2013

 

Valid to: 2359 on Mon 23 Dec 2013

 

Another intense area of low pressure is expected to track close to the UK during Monday. Associated rain and strong winds may again affect southwestern parts of England which remain saturated following earlier heavy rainfall. The public should be aware of the increased risk of localised flooding and possible disruption to transport. This warning is likely to be updated over the coming days.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

The very unsettled run of weather is expected to continue into the pre-Christmas period with another intense area of low pressure developing over the Atlantic and tracking close to the UK. Current indications are for southwest England to be most at risk from further heavy rain and gales. There is also a 20-25% probability of an intense low tracking across England and Wales to affect much of the south. There is still considerable uncertainty in the potential for severe weather and this warning will be updated as events unfold over the coming days.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1387756800&regionName=uk

[Mapantz]

I'm guessing posts get easily ignored in here? lol

[Eero Hermann]

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=768171366531196&set=pcb.571630379590924&type=1&theater

[Liam J]

Looks like a Metcheck map Richie.

Correct!

 

Meto not mentioned it yet, confidence not high enough to warrant a warning at this stage. 

Edited December 20, 2013 by Liam J

[SteveCoops]

Yeah so my parents and brother are flying Dublin to Southend tomorrow and back on Monday... http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/dublin err maybe they're not!

[knightrider]

Correct!

 

Meto not mentioned it yet, confidence not high enough to warrant a warning at this stage. 

They have I've just been on MetO's website and they've issued Yellow wind warnings for most of the exposed parts of the UK for Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning gusts of 60-70mph widely look possible with perhaps as much as 90mph in the north-west, here check for yourself > www.metoffice.gov.uk

[philglossop]

_{Gulp, I'm going to a party on Sunday down in Penzance- not looking promising for travelling home on Monday morning by train even!}