Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period

[knightrider]

Crikey.. Getting into the reliable timeframe, and 928mb low just of the NW of Scotland.http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131220/12/93/airpressure.png

JEEZ that would be epic, if your near it's centre could easily be talking about gusts in the region of 100mph I'd expect gusts across the country to be 65-70mph+

[Summer Sun]

Looking at UKMO we could see a respite from these low pressure systems on Wednesday and Thursday next week but look out west on Thursday and you can see whats coming for the Friday

 

 

t96 (Tuesday) isn't working on wetter but the low is 945mb where as GFS has it at 930mb

[Mapantz]

I know people think weather is centred on London and the SE, but run the current Met O 5 day for somewhere down here and you'll see some worrying potential next week - it's much in line with other sources at the moment. I've picked the following to show the highest point of the current run and it's damn gusty. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/hastings-east-sussex#?tab=map&fcTime=1387810800&map=GustSpeed&zoom=8&lon=0.45&lat=51.52 I have to say I've not seen gusts projected by the Met O like this all year and this is currently running higher than St Jude's in these parts:  Luckily this is in the middle of the night, lets hope it backs down from the current projections.

Similar picture here, also, the length of time that is showing 60mph+ gusts here. Wednesday's winds were stronger than the St Jude's here, so this is looking pretty nasty!

[knightrider]

 

I know people think weather is centred on London and the SE, but run the current Met O 5 day for somewhere down here and you'll see some worrying potential next week - it's much in line with other sources at the moment.

 

I've picked the following to show the highest point of the current run and it's damn gusty.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/hastings-east-sussex#?tab=map&fcTime=1387810800&map=GustSpeed&zoom=8&lon=0.45&lat=51.52

 

I have to say I've not seen gusts projected by the Met O like this all year and this is currently running higher than St Jude's in these parts:

 

 

 

Luckily this is in the middle of the night, lets hope it backs down from the current projections.

HOLY **** Your right looks significantly stronger then St'Jude on that run, I think Santa's sleigh will be flying a lot faster then usual.    

[gottolovethisweather]

Looking at UKMO we could see a respite from these low pressure systems on Wednesday and Thursday next week but look out west on Thursday and you can see whats coming for the Friday

 

 

t96 (Tuesday) isn't working on wetter but the low is 945mb where as GFS has it at 930mb

 

Very similar to the GFS 12z in fact so maybe the main festive period will see a lull in the windstorms and relentless rainfall, albeit some will see some snow in the run up to the big days too. Not much consolation really I guess, but a similar story to 2011 and many other recent years. Strange how these date patterns re-emerge from year to year.

Edited December 20, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[knightrider]

Not quite show why my comment appeared in a box for a previous comment lol

Not quite show why my comment appeared in a box for a previous comment lol

Now making stupid typo errors, I must have had 1 too many beers already!  lmao

[Sainsbo]

And I thought the GFS was bad enough!

 

Edited December 20, 2013 by Sainsbo

[Eero Hermann]

[knightrider]

And I thought the GFS was bad enough!

 

WOW, 975mb across the Midlands would surely mean 70mph+ winds for the southern half of the country?...then there's the question of a 915mb central pressure just off the Shetland Islands and Stornoway with 920mb across most of Scotland, NI and northern England this could potentially mean gusts of well over 100mph maybe as high as 120-130mph.

[Mokidugway]

If that come off it would lead to biggest civil emergency since ww2, never mind ruining Christmas !!!....

[knightrider]

If that come off it would lead to biggest civil emergency since ww2, never mind ruining Christmas !!!....

Would make 1987 seem like a late summer breeze lmao

[Cheshire Freeze]

There's your 925 record breaker. Severe.

 

[TwisterGirl81]

Do you think it will happen though as nothing major in the news?

I wonder what the conditions would be like in Devon where I am?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Several of the GEFS are sub 925 millibars

[Liam J]

Some extreme options on offer, consensus for something exceptional.

 

 http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=84

[knightrider]

Do you think it will happen though as nothing major in the news?I wonder what the conditions would be like in Devon where I am?

They don't usually make approaching weather systems of news headline until within 48 hours of the event so expect perhaps it to feature on the news by tomorrow evening!  The MetO still aren't completely clear on what's going to happen and when/where so when they are more confident about the details they'll inform the media/press about it and they'll start splashing it over their news bulletins newspaper headlines etc... I'd be amazed if The Daily Excess haven't got wind of it already...excuse the pun lmao! Joking aside though for once I have a feeling their headlines won't be much exaggerated.

[The PIT]

Guess this where the world ends

[johnholmes]

Would make 1987 seem like a late summer breeze lmao

 

perhaps for parts of the NW but not the SE

[lfcdude]

Some of these charts are insane, I am looking forward to Ian's view, But this could be some Christmas some would never forget 

[Love Snow]

Guess this where the world ends

Can you please explain this chartThanks in advance

[johnholmes]

WOW, 975mb across the Midlands would surely mean 70mph+ winds for the southern half of the country?...then there's the question of a 915mb central pressure just off the Shetland Islands and Stornoway with 920mb across most of Scotland, NI and northern England this could potentially mean gusts of well over 100mph maybe as high as 120-130mph.

 

I do like a good hype-why would a pressure of a certain value mean a particular wind speed.

Speed is directly proportional to the isobar spacing not the pressure value

[R.P. McMurphy]

There's your 925 record breaker. Severe.

 

 

Thats unreal.

[knightrider]

I do like a good hype-why would a pressure of a certain value mean a particular wind speed.

Speed is directly proportional to the isobar spacing not the pressure value

Indeed by I'm going by how intense the isobars look also

 

perhaps for parts of the NW but not the SE

Agreed maybe not for SE but still pretty severe, probably the biggest storm in a decade or more even for us MetO has inland gusts around London in the 60-70mph range!

[Eskimo]

I do like a good hype-why would a pressure of a certain value mean a particular wind speed.

Speed is directly proportional to the isobar spacing not the pressure value

Maybe it's akin to a lack of meteorological education and not a good hype? 

[knightrider]

Maybe it's akin to a lack of meteorological education and not a good hype?

I know enough I'm not that dumb, I'm aware the isobar spacing is the key to judging how severe the winds could be and these isobars look tighter then a tight thing Edited December 20, 2013 by Cakie