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Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period


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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Can you please explain this chartThanks in advance

I can't it's a dodgy panel full set here http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=84

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Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

Is that necessary ^ tis a family show...

Lol sorry it was the best comparison I could think of, I won't mention it again promise!  Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Although it is further north, I can't work out what the center of that is showing?

Posted Image16_96_500mb.png

Probably about 912mb

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Posted
  • Location: Manhattan, USA
  • Location: Manhattan, USA

Although it is further north, I can't work out what the center of that is showing?

Posted Image16_96_500mb.png

 

It's showing -655 - Were Doomed.

 

In all seriousness... It looks around 905-915..

 

I'm just glad Knightrider didn't throw in the Nun joke !Posted Image

Edited by Glenn W
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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

It seems the met office are most concerned about Southern and southeast counties of England regarding monday evening into Tuesday,the isobars are really tight for a good 12 hours especially in the southeaest,gusts of 80mph seem likely here on coasts.

Nearest the low although very windy with potential for record low pressure readings not so severe as the isobars are less squeezed.

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Posted
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather - any kind!
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire

A potentially serious situation for the northwest on Monday/Tuesday. Most GEFS members going for a sub 950mb low with some below 930mb! All depends of course on how deep the system gets and the location as to where the strongest winds will be but currently looks as if western Scotland and Northern Ireland will see the worst of the winds.

 

Posted Image

It seems the met office are most concerned about Southern and southeast counties of England regarding monday evening into Tuesday,the isobars are really tight for a good 12 hours especially in the southeaest,gusts of 80mph seem likely here on coasts.

Nearest the low although very windy with potential for record low pressure readings not so severe as the isobars are less squeezed.

 

Would have to disagree with this, the isobars are certainly tighter across the northwest:

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan

All of these so called intense systems so far this Autumn/Winter have produced nothing more than leaf rustlers/twig movers here, the only notable thing was the intense rain and hail for  2 minutes during Wedenesday nights squall

Edited by IanR
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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

A potentially serious situation for the northwest on Monday/Tuesday. Most GEFS members going for a sub 950mb low with some below 930mb! All depends of course on how deep the system gets and the location as to where the strongest winds will be but currently looks as if western Scotland and Northern Ireland will see the worst of the winds.

 

Posted Image

 

Would have to disagree with this, the isobars are certainly tighter across the northwest:

 

Posted Image

Your chart is for a differant timeframe to that i mentioned,1500 Tuesday.Winds are lighter across the South of Britain then and much stronger to the NW.If you read my post the period i flag up is late monday (23rd) into the early hours of Tuesday (24th)
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Posted
  • Location: East County Clare
  • Location: East County Clare

Your chart is for a differant timeframe to that i mentioned,1500 Tuesday.Winds are lighter across the South of Britain then and much stronger to the NW.If you read my post the period i flag up is late monday (23rd) into the early hours of Tuesday (24th)

Ties in with Met Office computer generated wind gusts as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)

Oh crap, the met office seems to be increasing the wind gusts for my area - now up to 64mph. Higher than Jude and after that it took uk power networks 3 days to get our power back on. Could really do without an electricity free Xmas!

Edited by poseidon
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Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, warmth, and thunder.
  • Location: Warwickshire

Well I will be missing out on this storm which will be unfortunate, so not really hoping for the worst on Monday at all, even though predictions does seem to getting worse as the week progresses. Annoying how today's storm seems to be something that will come and go without notice whatsoever in my area, similar to Wednesday's storm which only bought a maximum gust of 37mph when predictions were of 60mph.

Coming back next week may actually be another thing to look at as one of the Ensemble models shows the storm to be EXACTLY where my flight will return. Newcastle.

post-17472-0-63282400-1387564635_thumb.j

And look at the pressure here, possibly worse than Monday's upcoming storm.

post-17472-0-30806500-1387564703_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl

Just my personal opinion but I think one or two folk need to think a bit more about what they have typed before hitting the  'post' button to be honest. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Although it is further north, I can't work out what the center of that is showing?

Posted Image16_96_500mb.png

Whatever it's showing that little wave just coming to the south east on that chart won't help matters much.

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Summary on Monday and Tuesday,

 

Both the GFS and JMA show two separate lows,

 

post-6686-0-06721900-1387566395_thumb.pn

 

And the ECM, UKMO, GEM and NAVGEM show just one single low to the West of the UK,

 

post-6686-0-52667000-1387566495_thumb.gi

 

So we have two different set ups here so if the GFS and JMA are closer to the mark we would see on Monday gusts of 60 to 70mph across the country,

 

post-6686-0-03806700-1387566681_thumb.pn

 

Later on with Tuesday the second low moves in and brings very high mean wind speeds and gusts over 80mph across Southern Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England,

 

post-6686-0-90009900-1387566781_thumb.pn

 

The ECM and several other models seem confident in just one low for Monday. The ECM has been the most consistent by keeping the low in the same spot for the past day.

 

Here's the ECM at 6pm on Monday its deepening slowly as it moves closer to the UK but the worst of the winds are not hitting land,

 

post-6686-0-60061500-1387567049_thumb.pn

 

But later on for Tuesday morning and afternoon the low moves closer to Scotland and the high winds start to hit land bringing gusts of 65 to 75mph,

 

post-6686-0-91044200-1387567187_thumb.pn

 

Still need time for the models to agree but most of them seem to back up with the ECM and UKMO at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Well looking at this, that little potential low for tomorrow has developed already? (little windy kink in the Atlantic).

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-3.14,53.88,1024

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Well looking at this, that little potential low for tomorrow has developed already? (little windy kink in the Atlantic).

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-3.14,53.88,1024

Yep see it, is that roughly where it was though to be, or bit more south?

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Yep see it, is that roughly where it was though to be, or bit more south?

 

Going on the 12z runs it wasn't even meant to have developed yet!

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Well looking at this, that little potential low for tomorrow has developed already? (little windy kink in the Atlantic).

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-3.14,53.88,1024

 

Interesting to see it forming there, not much a mention on this small system when it could potentially quite disruptive. Needs monitored closely in the coming hours I think.

 

post-9615-0-15470900-1387569126_thumb.jp Winds already clocking 100km/h

 

 

post-9615-0-94719700-1387569380_thumb.jp About 55kts

 

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Interesting to see it forming there, not much a mention on this small system when it could potentially quite disruptive. Needs monitored closely in the coming hours I think.

 

Posted Image52b49fd6ec8d83ef92000058.jpeg Winds already clocking 100km/h

 

None of the GFS ensembles have this feature that developed by this time and the one that gets closest is the one which shows the highest wind speeds for tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

None of the GFS ensembles have this feature that developed by this time and the one that gets closest is the one which shows the highest wind speeds for tomorrow.

 

One of those situations, will it or won't it!  I expect the Met Office will be watching developments overnight.

 

I'd be inclined to say models are underestimating this wave, judging by those latest readings. 

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

None of the GFS ensembles have this feature that developed by this time and the one that gets closest is the one which shows the highest wind speeds for tomorrow.

 

These wind maps are generated using GFS data and are not in "real time",for example here is the wind chart for

+24 hrs.

 

earth wind map

 

They are fantastic though.

Edited by Cloud 10
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