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Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period


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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

     

    I'd be inclined to say models are underestimating this wave, judging by those latest readings. 

     

    Looks that way at present.

    These wind maps are generated using GFS data and are not in "real time",for example here is the wind chart for

    =24 hrs.

     

    earth wind map

     

    They are fantastic though.

     

    Oh right, that debunks that one then!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

    Its worth remember that these "live wind maps" that have become a bit of a viral hit recently are just animations of what the GFS is showing for that given time. So while it looks cool, it's not going to show anything different than from the model.

    "A visualuzation of global weather conditions forecasted by supercomputers"

    "Weather data : Global Forecast System"

    "weather data is generated by numerical models".

    Http://earth.nullschool.net/about.html

    I think the UKMO fax analysis chart is a better estimation of reality vs models.

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    Looks that way at present.

     

    Oh right, that debunks that one then!

     

    I'm hoping the link stays around long enough for when a SSW occurs.

     

    earth wind map 10hpa stratosphere

     

    Going the wrong way at the moment!

     

     

    Nothing really showing on the latest atlantic analysis.

     

    Edited by Cloud 10
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    Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk
    Possible severe Atlantic storm Christmas Day and Boxing Day

     

     

    Make it Xmas Eve, too

    Edited by BurntFishTrousers
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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    18z really winding up the low on Xmas Eve. Could be a miserable start to Xmas for many.

     

    post-9615-0-98704000-1387576464_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-12481100-1387576775_thumb.pn It's huge!!

     

    post-9615-0-00260700-1387576980_thumb.pn 927mb.

     

     

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Pretty incredible having a PV section virtually over the UK. Pub run further south, central pressure still around 928mb..

    http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131220/18/87/h500slp.png

    With snow too..

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Too early to start pinning down specific detail. It's going to be very disturbed indeed, we'll have a clearer signal over the weekend. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle
  • Location: Carlisle

    Too early to start pinning down specific detail. It's going to be very disturbed indeed, we'll have a clearer signal over the weekend. 

     looking at the 18z there's not much rain about from late on the 23rd to 25th?

     

    Monday doesn't look as bad rain wise, as .john Hammond was predicting before

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    A week away but another monster towards the end of next week. relentless!

     

    post-9615-0-39207900-1387577733_thumb.pn

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, warmth, and thunder.
  • Location: Warwickshire

    I am keeping a close eye on a possible upcoming storm which could perhaps be worse than this Monday's storm, one of the models already state this storm on Fri 27 Dec - Sat 28 Dec will reach a minimum pressure of 925mb, however that is only one of them.

    post-17472-0-67609700-1387580579_thumb.j

    Another storm to potentially look out for is on New Years Day, during firework displays, although currently the chance of this storm hitting on New Years Day would be around 25% as few models show the storm.

    post-17472-0-29700700-1387580651_thumb.j

    More storms are certainly possible while it stays mild in December and maybe January, but this is not good because personally I would rather see snow that wind & rain, even better, blizzards.

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    Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

    915mb... Posted Image

     

     

     

     

    post-18296-0-44308000-1387581954_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Some in fact most of the ensembles are shocking!! A number would likely gives gusts to 100mph if not higher.

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=84

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=78

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=168

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    These charts are absolute insanity. Never seen anything like them in my 22 years of living and even on archives that go way back.

    Will be devastating consequences if these hit as bad as they are looking now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Antrim, Northern Ireland
  • Location: Antrim, Northern Ireland

    Wow. I'd say about half of those show the low as 930mb or lower. Very worrying times ahead!

     

    These charts are absolute insanity. Never seen anything like them in my 22 years of living and even on archives that go way back.

    Will be devastating consequences if these hit as bad as they are looking now.

    Yep, unfortunately I have to agree, completely off the scale maps. Been closely watching the models for about 15 years and can't remember seeing anything like this.....lets hope they weaken a lot over the next few runs, particularly for us in the NW. Last Wednesday was bad enough here but it would be a light breeze in comparisonPosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire

    W COUNTRY Net result of current rain & that of next week is increasing flood risk; plus gales/severe gales all making for a disruptive spell

     

    As things stand, highest (60+kts) winds by later Mon look most likely across S England from circa Dorset/E Wilts/Hants east to Sussex/SE.

     

    Just saw that on twitter. Hopefully he will pop in here.

    Edited by lfcdude
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    Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

    Just a quick word on wave heights

     

    http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=natla_height

     

    It's a long way off, but the chart for the 27th December - +174hr

    Near the end of the sequence

     

    The bright yellow blob just to the west of Ireland, is off the scale !!

    52+ ft waves being indicated

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

    Just a quick word on wave heights http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=natla_height It's a long way off, but the chart for the 27th December - +174hrNear the end of the sequence The bright yellow blob just to the west of Ireland, is off the scale !!52+ ft waves being indicated

    I remember in Dec 2011 we recorded a 67ft wave off the northwest coast. That was also the last time I remember the GEFS putting out extreme storm solutions like these. The difference : they were always out in FI, not 3-4 days away...
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    18z gfs ens MEAN...

    post-7292-0-16515600-1387586914_thumb.pn

     

    Chart doesn't require much comment, pictures speaking 1000 words etc..!

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    Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

    “A low even in the 930s [mb] would be the deepest in my lifetime,†says meteorologist Mark Vogan, a specialist on weather in the UK

    Mark Vogan? He's not even a meteorologist nor a specialist, wasn't he a truck driver?

    Edited by PerfectStorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, warmth, and thunder.
  • Location: Warwickshire

    The storm track for Monday seems to have headed further South, and has deepened slightly on some models. Anything can happen to the Storm in the coming weekend, although it looks highly likely the storm will hit the UK with some serious strength, now the main question is, how far South will the storm go?

     

    post-17472-0-69834200-1387605265_thumb.p

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