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January 2014 CET forecasts

Roger J Smith

By Roger J Smith
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
Posted (edited)

Table of January CET averages and extremes

(this will appear again in the scoring thread, with all your entries added on New Years Day)


11.6 .. warmest daily CET mean (3rd, 1932 and 23rd, 1834)

8.0 ..
7.9
7.8
7.7
7.6
7.5 ... warmest January (1916)
7.4
7.3 ... second warmest (1796 & 1921)
7.2
7.1 ... fourth warmest (1934)

7.0 ... fifth warmest, and warmest since 1934 (2007)
6.9
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.3 ..
6.2 ..
6.1

6.0 ..
5.9 ..
5.8 ..
5.7 ..
5.6 ..
5.5 ..
5.4 ..
5.3 ..
5.2 ..
5.1 ..

5.0 ..
4.9 ..
4.8 ..

4.7 ..
4.6 .. --- average 2001-13 ----
4.5 ..
4.4 .. --- average 1981-2010 -----
4.3 ..
4.2 .. --- average 1971-2000 -----
4.1 ..

4.0 ..
3.9 .. --- average 1901-2000 ----
3.8 .. --- average 1961-1990 -----
3.7 ..
3.6 ...
3.5 .. ... 2013 CET
3.4 ..
3.3
3.2 .. --- average 1659-2013 ----- (3.24)
3.1 ..

3.0 ... --- average 1801-1900 ----
2.9 .. --- average 1701-1800 ----
2.8 ..
2.7
2.6 ... --- average 1659-1700 ----
2.5 ..
2.4 ..
2.3 ...
2.2 ...
2.1 ...

2.0 ...
1.9 ..
1.8 ..
1.7 ...
1.6 ...
1.5 ...
1.4 ... coldest past 25 yrs (2010)
1.3 ...
1.2 ...
1.1 ..

1.0 ...
0.9 ...
0.8 ... coldest past 30 yrs (1985, 1987)
0.7 ...
0.6 ...
0.5 ...
0.4 ...
0.3 ...
0.2 ...
0.1 ...

0.0 ...
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4 ... last subzero (1979)
-0.5
-0.6
-0.7
-0.8
-0.9

-1.0 ... twelfth coldest (1695)
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4 ... eleventh coldest (1940)
-1.5 ... tied for eighth coldest (1709, 1838, 1881)
-1.6 ... seventh coldest (1776)
-1.7
-1.8
-1.9

-2.0 ... sixth coldest (1716)
-2.1 ... fifth coldest, and coldest 20th century (1963)
-2.2
-2.3
-2.4
-2.5
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8 ... fourth coldest (1740)
-2.9 ... third coldest (1814)

-3.0 ... second coldest (1684)
-3.1 ... coldest January or month (1795)

-7.7 ... coldest daily CET mean past 30 yrs (12th, 1987)
-8.4 ... coldest daily CET mean in past 50 yrs (23rd, 1963)

-11.9 ... coldest daily CET mean, 20th 1838

_______________________________________________

Edited by Roger J Smith
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

6.6C, mild low after low first half, turning drier second half with dominant high pressure to S and SW

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simshady Community Regular

simshady

Posted
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
Posted

1.1 please.

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Polar Gael Rising Star

Polar Gael

Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
Posted

2.2ºC for me please. 

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

At this early stage i shall have to go for 5.4C, 1C above average. December has been wetter and milder than expected but my forecast actually called for January to be even worse.

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Lettucing Gutted Community Regular

Lettucing Gutted

Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
Posted

The stinkers are back.  8C  Posted Image

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Takes a long time to shift this type of weather so 6C here very mild and windy again

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Bobd29 Enthusiast

Bobd29

Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
Posted

3.1 for me please

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

Takes a long time to shift this type of weather so 6C here very mild and windy again

 

Not always look at what happened last January - the atlantic train broke suddenly after the first week...

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted (edited)

Below is the January CET from 1659 to 2013, with the 10 year mean in red and linear trend in black.

 

Posted Image

 

 

The correlation between the December and January CET is the 4th strongest of any consecutive monthly pair, at +0.36. This means that, more than most other months, that cool Decembers tend to be followed by cool Januaries and mild by mild.

 

December looks likely to finish somewhere between 5.4 and 6.4C. So the average January following Decembers in that range, is 4.1C.

 

The current run without a January CET lower than 0C (34 years) is the 3rd longest on record, the 2nd longest was 40 years (1839 to 1878) and the longest was 58 years (1882 to 1939).

The current run with the 10 year mean CET above 4C (22 years) is the longest on record, with the 2nd longest being 20 years (1920 to 1939), and the 3rd longest being 8 years (1973 to 1981).

The current run without a CET greater than 7C (92 years) is the 2nd longest on record, with the 3rd longest being 81 year (1835 to 1935) and the longest being 137 years (1659 to 1795)

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Milhouse Seasoned

Milhouse

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
Posted

4.6c please

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Relativistic Seasoned

Relativistic

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
Posted

The stinkers are back.  8C  Posted Image

Is there any science behind this?
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