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January 2014 CET forecasts


Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Table of January CET averages and extremes

    (this will appear again in the scoring thread, with all your entries added on New Years Day)



    11.6 .. warmest daily CET mean (3rd, 1932 and 23rd, 1834)

    8.0 ..
    7.9
    7.8
    7.7
    7.6
    7.5 ... warmest January (1916)
    7.4
    7.3 ... second warmest (1796 & 1921)
    7.2
    7.1 ... fourth warmest (1934)

    7.0 ... fifth warmest, and warmest since 1934 (2007)
    6.9
    6.8
    6.7
    6.6
    6.5
    6.4
    6.3 ..
    6.2 ..
    6.1

    6.0 ..
    5.9 ..
    5.8 ..
    5.7 ..
    5.6 ..
    5.5 ..
    5.4 ..
    5.3 ..
    5.2 ..
    5.1 ..

    5.0 ..
    4.9 ..
    4.8 ..

    4.7 ..
    4.6 .. --- average 2001-13 ----
    4.5 ..
    4.4 .. --- average 1981-2010 -----
    4.3 ..
    4.2 .. --- average 1971-2000 -----
    4.1 ..

    4.0 ..
    3.9 .. --- average 1901-2000 ----
    3.8 .. --- average 1961-1990 -----
    3.7 ..
    3.6 ...
    3.5 .. ... 2013 CET
    3.4 ..
    3.3
    3.2 .. --- average 1659-2013 ----- (3.24)
    3.1 ..

    3.0 ... --- average 1801-1900 ----
    2.9 .. --- average 1701-1800 ----
    2.8 ..
    2.7
    2.6 ... --- average 1659-1700 ----
    2.5 ..
    2.4 ..
    2.3 ...
    2.2 ...
    2.1 ...

    2.0 ...
    1.9 ..
    1.8 ..
    1.7 ...
    1.6 ...
    1.5 ...
    1.4 ... coldest past 25 yrs (2010)
    1.3 ...
    1.2 ...
    1.1 ..

    1.0 ...
    0.9 ...
    0.8 ... coldest past 30 yrs (1985, 1987)
    0.7 ...
    0.6 ...
    0.5 ...
    0.4 ...
    0.3 ...
    0.2 ...
    0.1 ...

    0.0 ...
    -0.1
    -0.2
    -0.3
    -0.4 ... last subzero (1979)
    -0.5
    -0.6
    -0.7
    -0.8
    -0.9

    -1.0 ... twelfth coldest (1695)
    -1.1
    -1.2
    -1.3
    -1.4 ... eleventh coldest (1940)
    -1.5 ... tied for eighth coldest (1709, 1838, 1881)
    -1.6 ... seventh coldest (1776)
    -1.7
    -1.8
    -1.9

    -2.0 ... sixth coldest (1716)
    -2.1 ... fifth coldest, and coldest 20th century (1963)
    -2.2
    -2.3
    -2.4
    -2.5
    -2.6
    -2.7
    -2.8 ... fourth coldest (1740)
    -2.9 ... third coldest (1814)

    -3.0 ... second coldest (1684)
    -3.1 ... coldest January or month (1795)

    -7.7 ... coldest daily CET mean past 30 yrs (12th, 1987)
    -8.4 ... coldest daily CET mean in past 50 yrs (23rd, 1963)

    -11.9 ... coldest daily CET mean, 20th 1838

    _______________________________________________

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    6.6C, mild low after low first half, turning drier second half with dominant high pressure to S and SW

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    Posted
  • Location: Winter=Gloomy Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: Winter=Gloomy Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth

    1.1 please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

    2.2ºC for me please. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    At this early stage i shall have to go for 5.4C, 1C above average. December has been wetter and milder than expected but my forecast actually called for January to be even worse.

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    Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

    The stinkers are back.  8C  Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Takes a long time to shift this type of weather so 6C here very mild and windy again

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    Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

    3.1 for me please

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Takes a long time to shift this type of weather so 6C here very mild and windy again

     

    Not always look at what happened last January - the atlantic train broke suddenly after the first week...

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Below is the January CET from 1659 to 2013, with the 10 year mean in red and linear trend in black.

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    The correlation between the December and January CET is the 4th strongest of any consecutive monthly pair, at +0.36. This means that, more than most other months, that cool Decembers tend to be followed by cool Januaries and mild by mild.

     

    December looks likely to finish somewhere between 5.4 and 6.4C. So the average January following Decembers in that range, is 4.1C.

     

    The current run without a January CET lower than 0C (34 years) is the 3rd longest on record, the 2nd longest was 40 years (1839 to 1878) and the longest was 58 years (1882 to 1939).

    The current run with the 10 year mean CET above 4C (22 years) is the longest on record, with the 2nd longest being 20 years (1920 to 1939), and the 3rd longest being 8 years (1973 to 1981).

    The current run without a CET greater than 7C (92 years) is the 2nd longest on record, with the 3rd longest being 81 year (1835 to 1935) and the longest being 137 years (1659 to 1795)

    Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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    Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

    4.6c please

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

    The stinkers are back.  8C  Posted Image

    Is there any science behind this?
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