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January 2014 CET forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Any losses at the beginning of week should be cancelled out by the 2nd half as it becomes mild again. Today will make a dint in the CET although rising temps overnight could well nullify it somewhat.

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

We're running at 6.9C at the moment. 2007 finished on 6.8C so its definitely up there with the mildest.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Minimum today of 0.6C while maxima look like reaching close to 6C, so a drop to 6.1C is likely tomorrow.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

6.1C to the 15th (7.0)

6.2C to the 16th (6.9)

6.2C to the 17th (6.8]

6.2C to the 18th (5.0)

5.9C to the 19th (0.8]

5.7C to the 20th (1.3)

5.5C to the 21st (2.6)

 

Sunday was provisionally the first day below the 61-90 daily mean, but just equal to the 1772 to 2013 daily mean.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

A slow slide downwards for the foreseeable future, but nearing half way stage an above average month looks most likely and we could end up with an appreciably above average one which would be the 3rd such month out of 4 in a row - its a while since we will have seen three very mild months in the space of 4... probably have to go back to winter 07/08 or 06/07. During 1997- 2008 period we had become very accustomed to such spells, typical such a spell has resurfaced during winter period as opposed to spring-summer period.

 

I'm hopeful winter 2014/2015 will feature much more wintry fayre during the first half than this one has, it has been a shocker so far for cold and snow. Payback for the cold snowy March and spring I wonder? Mother nature rebalancing herself out once again..

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Payback for the cold snowy March and spring I wonder? Mother nature rebalancing herself out once again..

As I have said many a time before the problem I have with that argument is "what balances what out?" You say it could be payback for the cold snowy March but how do you know March 2013 was not payback for March 2012 and that Spring 2013 was payback for Spring 2011?If that was case then there would be no payback now as the "debt" has been settled or is it? How do we know next winter won't be payback for this winter?This is the problem. Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

As I have said many a time before the problem I have with that argument is "what balances what out?"You say it could be payback to the cold snowy March but how do you know March 2013 was no payback for March 2012 and that Spring 2013 was payback for Spring 2011?If that was case then there would be no payback now as the "debt" has been settled or is it?How do we know next winter won't be payback for this winter?This is the problem.

 

Yes I don't think mother nature knows what day it is or what weather has been thrown at it previously! the weather will do what it wants regardless.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Yes I don't think mother nature knows what day it is or what weather has been thrown at it previously! the weather will do what it wants regardless.

 

Since I've started creating the daily CET graphs and comparing to the long term averages and extremes, we haven't seen any days equal to or greater than 1 standard deviation (σ) below the 1772-2012 mean (1772-2013 for January). Below is a table with the number of days 1 standard deviation above and below the mean of the whole record.

 

Month......... Days >= 1 Ïƒ above .... Days >=1 Ïƒ below

October..................16.................... ................0

November................1................... .................0

December................6 ................... ................0

January(so far) ......6 .................. .......... ........0

 

A remarkable lack of cold days since October. Even the current cold conditions forecast for the 19th and 20th wouldn't be enough to dip 1 Ïƒ below.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Perhaps the word 'payback' is not the correct terminology to use. All I'm trying to say is mother nature will do her best to achieve an equilibrium state i.e. what goes up must come down etc anology.. I don't think I am explaining myself well, however, if we look at the climate as a whole over thousands of years we have seen one extreme replaced by another over a long length of time.

 

In more recent years, look how wet spells have been followed by notable dry spells - rather than just one long wet or dry spell that is never ending. In some years the monsoons come early to India and the rains hit the sahel in some years they don't. Things smooth themselves out in time - not to say you end up with 'smooth' average conditions, more that one extreme period of weather is very likely to be followed by an extreme period of opposite weather..

 

With our weather never expect the same conditions to last forever, and that goes with mild periods as much as cold periods!

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Posted
  • Location: Paris suburbs
  • Location: Paris suburbs

A slow slide downwards for the foreseeable future, but nearing half way stage an above average month looks most likely and we could end up with an appreciably above average one which would be the 3rd such month out of 4 in a row - its a while since we will have seen three very mild months in the space of 4... probably have to go back to winter 07/08 or 06/07. During 1997- 2008 period we had become very accustomed to such spells, typical such a spell has resurfaced during winter period as opposed to spring-summer period. I'm hopeful winter 2014/2015 will feature much more wintry fayre during the first half than this one has, it has been a shocker so far for cold and snow. Payback for the cold snowy March and spring I wonder? Mother nature rebalancing herself out once again..

September 2011-March 2012 were all, except February, 1.5c or more above the 61-90 average. And I wouldn't mind a repeat of spring 2012 given that I experienced my first blizzard in the UK that April (and 2013 was also great).
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

September 2011-March 2012 were all, except February, 1.5c or more above the 61-90 average. And I wouldn't mind a repeat of spring 2012 given that I experienced my first blizzard in the UK that April (and 2013 was also great).

 

Thanks for the stats - I thought Dec 11 and Jan 12 were not quite as mild as that. Indeed over Scotland and N England temperatures were often around average, but yes the south was quite mild from memory. However, this winter so far has been devoid of snow unlike winter 11/12 which produced quite a wintry period in December with a number of days with snow falling and a couple of mornings with snow cover in the northern half of the country.

 

It certainly feels more like winter 06/07 and 07/08. January could still deliver - think Jan 12 which saw a cold spell develop at the tail end.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Down to 5.5C here but should start rising from now on until Sunday.

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

Thanks for the stats - I thought Dec 11 and Jan 12 were not quite as mild as that. Indeed over Scotland and N England temperatures were often around average, but yes the south was quite mild from memory. However, this winter so far has been devoid of snow unlike winter 11/12 which produced quite a wintry period in December with a number of days with snow falling and a couple of mornings with snow cover in the northern half of the country.

 

It certainly feels more like winter 06/07 and 07/08. January could still deliver - think Jan 12 which saw a cold spell develop at the tail end.

Dec 2011 didn't produce much snow for most of the country, although some colder zonality did bring a little snow to the north and higher ground in the south pennines from around the 16th-19th of that month.  Jan 2012 was devoid of snow for most parts of the country I believe.

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Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

Been a while since I have done one of these but the ensembles now stretch to the end of month so worth having a look at.

 

6.2 to the 15th +2.7 anomaly (61-90)   +1.8 anomaly (81-10)

 

Min today of 4.8 and max likely around 9.0 should stay on 6.2 tomorrow.

 

Met office forecasts for 5 days . Then GFS 0z Ensemble mean.

16th 6.2 (6.9)

17th 6.3 (6.8 )

18th 6.3 (6.5)

19th 6.3   (6.0)

20th   6.2 (5.6)

 

25th   5.6  +1.9 (61-90) +1.2 (81-10)  

 

31st 5.3   +1.5  (61-90)  0.9  (81-10)

 

 

So at this stage looking at an above average month, a colder spell in the last 10 days could still it down to around the 81-10 average, would take the last 10 days average around zero to have a change of going below the 61-90 average after corrections.  

Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield back up to 5.6C

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The CET for the first half of Winter (6.4C) is provisionally the 11th mildest on record (1772 to 2013) and the 6th mildest of the last 100 years.

 

Posted Image

It's also just 1 of 20 winters to record a CET of more than 6C for that time period. The winter that stands head and shoulders above the others in 1974/75, which averaged 8.1C, 0.8C above 2nd place 1853 (7.3C)

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The CET for the first half of Winter (6.4C) is provisionally the 11th mildest on record (1772 to 2013) and the 6th mildest of the last 100 years.

 

Posted Image

It's also just 1 of 20 winters to record a CET of more than 6C for that time period. The winter that stands head and shoulders above the others in 1974/75, which averaged 8.1C, 0.8C above 2nd place 1853 (7.3C)

 

Taking the first half of this winter what should we statistically expect for the second? Is there a rebound or have most seen more of the same.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

The CET for the first half of Winter (6.4C) is provisionally the 11th mildest on record (1772 to 2013) and the 6th mildest of the last 100 years.

 

Posted Image

It's also just 1 of 20 winters to record a CET of more than 6C for that time period. The winter that stands head and shoulders above the others in 1974/75, which averaged 8.1C, 0.8C above 2nd place 1853 (7.3C)

Interesting winter 1852-53, February was very cold and very snowy.
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Taking the first half of this winter what should we statistically expect for the second? Is there a rebound or have most seen more of the same.

 

Taking the winters that had a 1st half averaging between 5.4 and 7.3C (roughly 1C either side of this year), the mean CET for the 2nd half of winter is 4.4C, with an average drop of 1.6C from the first to second half.

Out of the 50 winters that averaged above 5.4C during the first half, only 9 see an increase in temperature during the second half. No winter that saw an average of 6.0C or greater during the first half has seen an increase during the second half.

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