January 2014 CET forecasts

[damianslaw]

I'll be interested to see the difference between average min and max for the month, as it is the mild minima which has really had more of an affect on the CET values than maxima.

 

Indeed here in the far north, maxima certainly over the last 2 weeks has been close to average - and so too in Scotland.

 

It hasn't felt like a particularly mild January here, especially given how windy wet and cloudy it has been. Jan 2007 and 2008 certainly delivered much milder maxima on occasion. We've had no blow torch dry southwesterlies with there associated mist and murk producing maxima of 12-13 and mins of 10 degrees like we saw at the start of Jan 2012 and 2013 with limited source of air direct from a SW-S quarter and much more from a SW-NW quarter - much cleaner air, but not enough to produce much brightness unfortunately. Indeed I can't think of a month dominated so much by a returning polar maritime airstream...

 

I know conditions in the south have been different with little polar influences. For Scotland and far north, it has been just a mild Jan rather than an exceptionally mild one.

Edited January 29, 2014 by damianslaw

[reef]

I'll be interested to see the difference between average min and max for the month, as it is the mild minima which has really had more of an affect on the CET values than maxima.

 

Indeed here in the far north, maxima certainly over the last 2 weeks has been close to average - and so too in Scotland.

 

It hasn't felt like a particularly mild January here, especially given how windy wet and cloudy it has been. Jan 2007 and 2008 certainly delivered much milder maxima on occasion. We've had no blow torch dry southwesterlies with there associated mist and murk producing maxima of 12-13 and mins of 10 degrees like we saw at the start of Jan 2012 and 2013 with limited source of air direct from a SW-S quarter and much more from a SW-NW quarter - much cleaner air, but not enough to produce much brightness unfortunately. Indeed I can't think of a month dominated so much by a returning polar maritime airstream...

 

I know conditions in the south have been different with little polar influences. For Scotland and far north, it has been just a mild Jan rather than an exceptionally mild one.

 

As mentioned in the mild winter thread, its actually more the average maxima being above average:

 

January 2014 (HadCET figures to the 28th):

 

Mean Max: 8.7C (+2.3C)

Mean Min: 3.0C (+1.9C)

 

Phillip Eden's site highlights this:

 

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/1401.htm

 

Daytime temperatures have generally been average or above with hardly any below, however the lack of any really mild days gives the perception that it has been pretty average. For minima, the lack of air frosts due to persistent wind gives the opposite impression that nights have been mild, when in reality you can have many nights a couple of degrees above freezing with few below and still be closer to the average.

Edited January 30, 2014 by reef

[Summer Sun]

5.8C to the 29th

 

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 2.1C, with maxima likely to reach the low 4s, should leave the CET on 5.8C on tomorrows update.

 

For the final day of the month, the 06z GFS op runs has the CET around 2.5C, leaving us at 5.7C (5.65) before corrections.

 

A post corrections CET of 5.1C would result in the Dec/Jan combination being the joint 25th mildest on record. While a final value of 5.6C would leave it joint 15th mildest.

Edited January 30, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[North-Easterly Blast]

There is a high chance now that we will record the warmest January CET since 2008, and we will probably just beat 2012.

[Summer Sun]

5.8c to the 30th

 

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

January confirmed as 5.7C

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2014

 

No downward correction this month.

 

I don't think anybody got it spot on, but Deep Snow Please, Duncan McAlister and reef were all just 0.2C off, so congrats to them!

 

This January is the joint 30th warmest on record (since 1660), with the December January combination the joint 15th warmest on record.

Edited February 1, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[J10]

January confirmed as 5.7C

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2014

 

No downward correction this month.

 

I don't think anybody got it spot on, but Deep Snow Please, Duncan McAlister and reef were all just 0.2C off, so congrats to them!

 

This January is the joint 30th warmest on record (since 1660), with the December January combination the joint 15th warmest on record.

 

I am putting the scores together now. so they should be up either later today or sometime tomorrow

 

Edit to my previous post -

 

There was a late entry by thetonynator which was the closest 0.1c out.

 

reef, Deep Snow Please, Duncan McAlister and another late entry Blue Skies do I see were 0.2c out.

Edited February 1, 2014 by J10

[AderynCoch]

You might not be too surprised to learn that the range of daily CET values (5.4C, from 8.4C on the 7th to 3.0C on the 30th) was the smallest of any January in the entire record. beating the previous record of 6.3C (1842 & 1991). The average range for January is 10.7C, and historically has been as high as 19.4C (1867).

 

The lowest daily mean of 3.0C is the 4th highest for any January in the CET record, behind 1796 (4.0), 1916 (3.8 ) and 1990 (3.6). In contrast, the highest daily CET mean for January 1814 was 0.8C. 1963 (2.4) and 1830 (2.8 ) are the only other two Januaries to produce a lower highest daily mean than January 2014's lowest daily mean.

Edited February 2, 2014 by AderynCoch

[J10]

Scores now computed

 

Remember both XLS and PDF figures now include summary info for those not wanting to have info overload.

 

Jan 2014 CET.pdf

 

Jan 2014 CET.xls

 

Monthly winner was thetonynator 0.1c

with Deep Snow Please, .reef and BlueSkies_do_I_see each 0.2 out.

 

Seasonal the 1-2-3 is reef, The PIT and mikeocarroll

 

Overall very similar the 1-2-3 is reef, The PIT and  Deep Snow please

Edited February 3, 2014 by J10

[BornFromTheVoid]

Better late than never I guess.

 

January 2014 compared to historical averages and extremes

 

 

 

Also, if anyone would like to post up a similar graph but with the 2014 line (yellow) replaced with any other year of interest, just ask!

[J10]

Scores now computed

 

Remember both XLS and PDF figures now include summary info for those not wanting to have info overload.

 

Jan 2014 CET.pdf

 

Jan 2014 CET.xls

 

Monthly winner was thetonynator 0.1c

with Deep Snow Please, .reef and BlueSkies_do_I_see each 0.2 out.

 

Seasonal the 1-2-3 is reef, The PIT and mikeocarroll

 

Overall very similar the 1-2-3 is reef, The PIT and  Deep Snow please

 

An adjustment to the above figures, Duncan McAlister quite rightly pointed out that his scores for this month was omitted.

 

The revised figures are attached.

 

Jan 2014 CET Revised.pdf  Jan 2014 CET Revised.xls

 

For the month, thetonynator was 0.1c out

with Deep Snow Please,reef and BlueSkies_do_I_see and also Duncan McAlister each 0.2 out.

 

There are no impacts to the overall top placings, however Duncan McAlister moves up to 24th place.

 

Apologies for this omission.

Edited February 3, 2014 by J10