Severe Atlantic Storms over the Christmas & New Year period

[Liam J]

Met Office are predicting gusts of wind for my location in the mid 70's during Friday, the max gust shown for yesterday on the Met site was 62mph and I recorded 65-67mph. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

EURO4 seems to be going for the more S'ly route now for the tightest squeeze/highest wind speeds. Some worrying strength in that heading towards Ireland

 

[Liam J]

Much the same approach as the NAE which then goes on to track the centre over the middle of Scotland, heading ENE.

 

Edited December 25, 2013 by Liam J

[Cheshire Freeze]

Much the same approach as the NAE which then goes on to track the centre over the middle of Scotland, heading ENE.

 

nae33.gifnae333.gif

 

Further S than NAE and much further S than GFS. N England looks to get a battering

 

[on the coast]

Looks like we will lose the fence this time, very flimsy after Mondays gales. Looking a lot more severe Midlands northwards this storm. Wouldn't be surprised to see warnings upgraded tomorrow for some.

[Chris D]

Looks like we will lose the fence this time, very flimsy after Mondays gales. Looking a lot more severe Midlands northwards this storm. Wouldn't be surprised to see warnings upgraded tomorrow for some.

 Yes Im fully expecting the Met Office warnings to update tomorrow to reflect the recent output. If not, I'll be shocked lol.

[JK1]

Any idea of the winds we would get in the south this time?

[Chris D]

Any idea of the winds we would get in the south this time?

I'd guess at 40-50mph widespread inland for S England. A windy day for sure, focus at the moment is for Wales, N England and NI still, for 60-70mph widespread gusts

[knocker]

At the moment Northwood are going along with this from the METO.Another deep area of low pressure developing over the Atlantic Ocean will bring another spellof wet and windy weather across the UK as it tracks northeastwards past northwestern Britainlater on Thursday and during Friday. Wind is expected to increase across the area during Thursdayevening and night. Peak winds are thought most likely to occur during the early hours of Friday and Friday morning with the highest gusts probably being over Irish Sea coastal areas. Relative to recent storms that have affected the UK, Friday's depression is looking less intense and the extent of associated impacts are currently thought to be less severe. However, at this stage there remain some uncertainties concerning the track and depth of this storm and this warning will be re-assessed and updated on Boxing Day.

Edited December 25, 2013 by knocker

[Sainsbo]

Any idea of the winds we would get in the south this time?

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/swindon-swindon#?tab=map&map=GustSpeed&zoom=7&lon=-1.68&lat=51.35&fcTime=1388070000

 

45-50mph inland, 50-65mph on the coasts. Still a very windy day!

[Tim M]

Confused by some of posters re my neck of woods. Some saying major upgrade for winds on way, others not.

[knocker]

Confused by some of posters re my neck of woods. Some saying major upgrade for winds on way, others not.

 

For what it's worth at the moment I would stick with the senior forecaster at the METO and follow his advice about keeping a sharp eye out for updates, especially tomorrow.

[Tim M]

For what it's worth at the moment I would stick with the senior forecaster at the METO and follow his advice about keeping a sharp eye out for updates, especially tomorrow.

Thanks, will do. Hoping METO right and things not too bad here.

[knocker]

Thanks, will do. Hoping METO right and things not too bad here.

 

Current thinking but as I say it's so dependent on the track of the low watching the updates is vital. Personally I'm quite hopeful of the NE track.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

 

 

 

all i  can say  there  no let  up till Jan 11 of the  constant rain  and storms  which  wont help the  flooding here in the UK  

 

ps  nasty looking  storms  down south  of  the  uk at  the  moment  not what they need  down there at  the moment

Edited December 25, 2013 by tinybill

[Bluebreezer54]

There are a good many folk down here in the South who are hoping things don't get even worse later this week.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2529138/Tis-NOT-season-jolly-thousands-Britons-flooded-left-without-power-storms-batter-UK-Many-homes-without-electricity-Boxing-Day.html.

[on the coast]

18z keeping it windy. All eyes on the Met Office update tomorrow.

[Cheshire Freeze]

18z keeping it windy. All eyes on the Met Office update tomorrow.

 

Yep 18z slightly more intense than the 12z

[Liam J]

Oh dear, that would cause some major problems... 

 

 

Edited December 25, 2013 by Liam J

[Cheshire Freeze]

Oh dear, that would cause some major problems... 

 

gfs44.pnggfs009.gif

 

NAE intensifying and pulling it further S than its 12z run. N England looks to be in the firing line. 70MPH looks fairly widespread- 80MPH more than possible.

[Zenarcher]

Oh dear, that would cause some major problems... 

 

gfs44.pnggfs009.gif

 

18z does look very stormy the gust charts for Ireland 75mph, Irish Sea 80mph and Northern England 65 to 75mph. 

[laserguy]

NAE intensifying and pulling it further S than its 12z run. N England looks to be in the firing line. 70MPH looks fairly widespread- 80MPH more than possible.

 

And not before time. But I guess we'll snatch defeat from the jaws of victory (or summat like that) - again.

[Liam J]

You could be tight there.

 

NAE

 

GFS gust chart 6am Friday.

Edited December 25, 2013 by Liam J

[Darren Bown]

After seeing the risk for Scotland earlier today/ yesterday, I'm surprised to see a shift southward a today! Metoffice have my location for 50+mph gusts, for an inland location, pretty high.

Looks like this is going to be a rough ride for N England especially.

Merry Christmas by the way!

[Richie V]

BRING IT BYIATCH

Hope everyone had a good xmas