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Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.


phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    The latest NAO update remains unchanged with it staying around neutral for the first half of this month

     

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    The latest AO update has it flipping between negative and neutral for the first half of this month

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    GFS 06z ensembles continue to show rainfall easing during the latter half of next week, looking at the 850's they don't look too far away from average out to the 17th

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

    It's nice to see an interest in the models even if we are still unsure which way we are going with the weather. I think a lot of people are kind of blinded by the fact that our previous winters have had some form of very cold weather pre christmas or at the least very frosty weather. Savour the fact that the 90's had temps up to 15C during the wettest spells, I haven't seen a 15C with rain for a very long time. To be honest I'm also glad that we are getting all this wind and rain now, rather than starting middway through jan atleast we have a high chance of atleast one bout of snowfall through the next three months ;)

     

    The pattern will change just look at all the signs that the experts have been posting!

     

    Atleast if it does turn much colder, we've got plenty of wet ground to slide across :D;)

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    in relation to SB's post above, if NOAA took the results of the experiment seriously, then I guess they will be doing something re the data input. (I'm sure I heard this type of anecdote before re the starting data of ECM v gfs). I wonder if sylvan can enlighten us as to when we might see the parallel on meteociel??

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Great to see the chances of a more wintry second half to January are firming up more and more, I really couldn't understand why there were comments yesterday saying there was no sign of cold...anyway very encouraging met office update for coldies, The more wintry tone is not that surprising because the GEFS mean has been looking progressively colder by mid month for a few days now..what a promising start to the new year, we might get our snow fix in a few weeks.Posted Image

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    New years eve was model watching doom, all of a sudden we have hope from the scandi high and an upgrade in stratospheric warming. Woohoo!Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    What sort of ridge is this!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

     

     I hear will break new ground, with some talk about harnessing the cloud
     
     
     

    I hope they can invent a snow making machine for the whole of the uk between dec - march after they harness the cloudsPosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

    What sort of ridge is this!?

    Posted Image

    A good one ....
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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    A good one ....

     Shame the ECM is on its own with it. The GEM sort of goes for it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl

    A good one ....

    Or out another way, a Steve Murr sausage!I have been surprised at how slowly the models have reacted to evident changes not just in the strat but in the troposphere around the pole. However, I ought not to because in my few years' experience of model watching they often seem to be uncertain, contradictory and inconsistent when a change is coming, especially a strat induced one.It seems to me that, judging by the models' behaviour, some kind of change is inevitable. Only minor questions such as when and a change to what remain! It seems highly likely to be colder conditions with a more continental rather than Atlantic flow. However, in our position adjacent to the ocean, it could easily be a 'close but no cigar' situation, or it could be the start of a very significant, even famous, cold spell, or of course somewhere in between.At this range it will be some while before we can discern which scenario is more likely.
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    has the ukmo got a problem with its later data ?

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

     

    Possibly Posted Image

     

    I can't get ECM London ensembles either, if someone else can could you post please.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Possibly Posted Image

     

    I can't get ECM London ensembles either, if someone else can could you post please.

    no doubt erroneous but there will be no issue with the slp charts - it will be data transfer problem to meteociel.

    Typically, the ECM extended ens fail when we want to see them!

    also, there really should be no sign of possible events in the strat feeding down into the trop as yet on the extended modelling.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    Possibly Posted Image

     

    I can't get ECM London ensembles either, if someone else can could you post please.

    Posted Image

     

    Edit: Sorry not ECM.

    Edited by StuieW
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Possibly Posted Image

     

    I can't get ECM London ensembles either, if someone else can could you post please.

     

    Not updated today yet this is yesterday's

     

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    Best we have for now is this from Holland

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    So we got the London GEFS, the De Bilt EC ens, but not the London EC ens as asked for?

    ;)

    Not updated on my usual source.

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    Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley

    CFSv2 thinks it will be wetter than average through to April! It was certainly right about December's rain.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euPrece1Mon.html

    Lets hope its real cold then.
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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    The ECM graph for London still showing yesterdays date.

    A link to another Dutch site is the best i can find at the moment.

    http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim&r=midden

     

    click the links above the graphs for ECM/GEFS and comparison data.

    A quick glance for over there shows the ECM suggesting  colder temps towards the end of it's run with low dewpoints so possible Easterly influence?

    GFS output less cold and dry as expected from the earlier charts so likely continuing westerly effect.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    GFS 12z trickling out. Looks as though it is going to continue with the trend of building heights to our NE and also with the depth of trough.

    Already looking very different to UKMO at just 84h in those regards!

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    With each of three main models handling ridging both East and West differently, which will blink first?

    For the moment GFS staring hard.

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

    Signs of stalling LP as pressure builds over the N East .LP strugging to make westwards progress at 120 Posted ImagePosted Image

    Edited by keithlucky
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The stronger upper Scandi ridge = weaker Atlantic Ridge. So GFS and ECM diametrically opposed. GFS at T150:

     

    post-14819-0-24256600-1388593053_thumb.p

     

    This stalls the Atlantic for a while, see where it goes from here.

     

     

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