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Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.


phil nw.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=-6&mode=0&carte=1&run=10

 

This mornings CFS seems to align to the ECM control with modest heights to the North edging into the southern tip of Greenland in 15 days...

 

all in all a good day.

 

S

A good day?

Not im my book steve.Ive not seen any evidence that the PV is moving anywhere,ECM looks decent for a shot of cold across much of central Europe maybe extending down through the Balkans,for us,a cold high.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Plenty of the pieces fall in the right place yet again for the 12z to evolve las it does. You'd have to think the ecm is a bit too amplified upstream. If so, the atlantic wont look quite like that mid range and then the latter part of the run probably delivers a mid lat block with the atlantic pushing across to our north and possibly sinking the ridge after a bit of a scrap. (As exeter's update states). is it our time to get a bit of luck this season ?

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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire

Plenty of the pieces fall in the right place yet again for the 12z to evolve las it does. You'd have to think the ecm is a bit too amplified upstream. If so, the atlantic wont look quite like that mid range and then the latter part of the run probably delivers a mid lat block with the atlantic pushing across to our north and possibly sinking the ridge after a bit of a scrap. (As exeter's update states). is it our time to get a bit of luck this season ?

in football they say luck tends to even it self out over the course of a season, is that the same for the weather?

Edited by Tony27
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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

in football they say luck tends to even it self out over a season, is that the same for the weather?

 

Nope Posted Image

 

Difficult to say what the outcome will be as although I think the GFS looks more likely ECM, METO and GEM are all moving the same way and even within the GFS ensemble suite there is some support for the ECM route (albeit limited support). 

 

As Steve says, if we got to the ECM 216 chart it is likely that things will pan out better than the 240 shows. Its getting to that point that will prove the fun bit.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Are you so desperate to go against the positive cold anomaly the ECM has thrown up that you are flagging up 0z's Naefs?

 

 

NAEFS shows an average to mild outlook for mid Jan and probably unsettled and wet as well

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

Purja's point is fair. Although it is encouraging to see movements towards colder set-ups on some models, there seem to me an equal number of models that want to keep the status quo. Personally I think the PV will not be as strong come mid-Jan as it has been in December (as is often the case), and therefore chances of cold reaching us one way or another will increase - but GFS has got this right a few times in the recent past so I wouldn't discount it at all.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

in football they say luck tends to even it self out over the course of a season, is that the same for the weather?

Not in the old days tony - we chased and chased a northerly toppler for week after week, month after month. Ecm only went to T168 and GEM to T144 so we only had gfs to look at for eye candy.
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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )

Purja's point is fair. Although it is encouraging to see movements towards colder set-ups on some models, there seem to me an equal number of models that want to keep the status quo. Personally I think the PV will not be as strong come mid-Jan as it has been in December (as is often the case), and therefore chances of cold reaching us one way or another will increase - but GFS has got this right a few times in the recent past so I wouldn't discount it at all.

If it had been the 12z yes but it wasn't, and I don't believe he posts to be fair.
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

Little support for the ecm tonight from the 12z update / naefs. It keeps the mean trough to our nw, extending thru Greenland, with no signal for a scandi block at this point. Heres the ecm op @ t216 and naefs at same time (height anomalies shown)

Posted ImagePosted Image

By t 240 naefs shows

Posted Image

Edited by draztik
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Close but no cigar with the ECM, and zonal rinse and repeat with the GFS, the UKMO looks in between both. I think the appearance of high pressure to the ne is likely to cloud the issue.

 

So still uncertainties upstream and a curveball to the ne, this makes for interesting model viewing.

 

Things would be a lot less complicated if that troughing near the UK was quicker to fill and send some energy east or se, also if and when any energy phases from the PV and UK troughing.

 

The ECM ensemble spreads show some interest, the mean is often too washed out in later timeframes in this type of set up.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I really like the Jet profile on the later frames of the Ecm 12z ensemble mean, a nice solid northwest  / southeast tilt with lower heights swinging southeast along with polar air, I think an increasingly cold pattern should be locking in by mid month or sooner, worth mentioning again the wintry signal from the met office update earlier today in the longer range.Posted Image

post-4783-0-18211100-1388608816_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-00622300-1388608833_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-19567400-1388608847_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

If it had been the 12z yes but it wasn't, and I don't believe he posts to be fair.

Please be so kind as to refer to the post above by draztik showing the 12z NAEFS anomaly chart - virtually identical to the 0zs giving no signal for anything but average to mild and unsettled.

If I can see a signal to cold & there are tiny hints, I will post it but we have to be realistic at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Bobbydog-i have moved your post about maddens latest musings to here

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78310-winter-2013-2014-discussion-part-2/

 

to avoid taking this thread away from Model Discussion.

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )

Please be so kind as to refer to the post above by draztik showing the 12z NAEFS anomaly chart - virtually identical to the 0zs giving no signal for anything but average to mild and unsettled.If I can see a signal to cold & there are tiny hints, I will post it but we have to be realistic at the moment.

I apologise, I was unaware that you dealt in telepathy along with anti-cold charts.http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140101/12/180/npsh500.png12z showing the vortex disrupted and plenty of high pressure over the Arctic.
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Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

Well I’m pleased that my prediction for a more zonal ECM has fallen over although I still have little faith in its blocking projection. Obviously some are hoping for something better in terms of cold prospects and while that would be very nice an end to the terminal rain will do me fine.

In regards any strat warming backtrack, people need to remember that it’s a model projection of what may happen, not a projection of what will happen and also that it may not benefit us her in the UK in any case, also it’s the same as all model runs, in that its a projection from a set of starting values and these values change every run as the latest data is used, for me as long as it’s being projected then any steps backwards or forwards are OK and only to be expected.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010112/EDH1-168.GIF?01-0

 

ECM Ensemble mean very aligned to the OP tonight.

 

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png T2M - awaiting the Post 10 days.

 

S

 

on a basic level, the days 9 and 10 show the pattern flattening.  the spreads reveal a battle between the atlantic taking a depression past the north of scotland and colder 850's heading into the eastern side of the uk by day 10. 

 

still think the depression is the favourite but the trend towards the scandi ridge is certainly not losing its momentum.

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Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

Just got to say what a Winter this is turning out to be for the US. -15 uppers down into Texas this time next week. Chicago -25 uppers! Posted Image Posted Image

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

I apologise, I was unaware that you dealt in telepathy along with anti-cold charts.http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140101/12/180/npsh500.png12z showing the vortex disrupted and plenty of high pressure over the Arctic.

Which leads to what?

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on a basic level, the days 9 and 10 show the pattern flattening.  the spreads reveal a battle between the atlantic taking a depression past the north of scotland and colder 850's heading into the eastern side of the uk by day 10. 

 

still think the depression is the favourite but the trend towards the scandi ridge is certainly not losing its momentum.

 

I think the pattern is evolving to something correct now with the MAIN core of the low getting into Canada but a breakaway low like the ECM / GEM heading SE Into the atlantic-

Easterly approach its game over, if it approaches SE we may get a slider & south like the gem its game on- the bigger the split jet the better..

 

S

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

Just got to say what a Winter this is turning out to be for the US. -15 uppers down into Texas this time next week. Chicago -25 uppers! Posted Image Posted Image

 

Posted Image

A big well done must go out to those who predicted a bitter winter for North America such as Gavin Partridge. That is some freeze, a bit too dangerous though, those temps are too cold.Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday January 1st 2014.

 

All models show the very unsettled period persisting for some considerable time tonight with the next week seeing all models show deep Low pressure areas repeatedly moving NE to the NW of Britain with spells of heavy rain alternating with sunshine and showers taking us out towards the middle of next week.

 

GFS then maintains the feed of wet and sometimes wild conditions with further Low pressure areas maintaining a well worn path across the Atlantic with a continual feed of strong West winds and troughs feeding band of rain after rain across the UK in temperatures close to average.

 

The GFS Ensembles continue with the unabated pattern of Atlantic based weather with periods of rain and showers across all areas throughout the next few weeks in temperatures close to average.

 

UKMO on Tuesday 7th shows a slow moving and filling depression South of Iceland with further rain and showers feeding NE across the UK, heaviest in the South and West in relatively mild SW winds.

 

GEM shows little overall change with the continuing feed of Atlantic winds in the vicinity of the UK though the effects will be less dramatic than of late with the heaviest rain returning to more Northern and Western areas later next week.

 

NAVGEM also shows lessening effects of the SW flow which is generally maintained across the UK towards the end of next week with mild and dry conditions likely across SE Britain at the end of the run.

 

ECM tonight continues to show a much better outlook later next week with Low pressure filling up to the NE and rising pressure leading to drier and brighter conditions with light winds and sunny spells but also sharp frosts at night later next week.

 

The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart is attached and shows to me that the majority of the ECM members show something less settled than the operational is indicating but that is not to say it isn't right as others have pointed out it is three operationals in a row that have shown something more settled later next week.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The Jet Stream pattern remains strong and as were for the next week or so with the flow remaining fast and strong in an Eastwards direction close to Southern Britain. The trend is much less clear cut thereafter with a rather weaker flow at least tempering the flow and location later.

 

In Summary the pattern remains the same as this morning with the main exception being that of ECM which once more shows an operational run which shows the weather improving markedly later next week under High pressure. The rest show less well structured improvements in pressure levels with winds remaining Westerly with further rain at times through the second week.

Edited by Gibby
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Any news on the potential snow for Saturday!!models backed down or do we still have a chance?.ian ferguson was talking about it yesterday and said it was quite a strong potential as well!!

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