north indian ocean Tropical Cyclone 01B

[Somerset Squall]

The first tropical cyclone of the 2014 season has formed early (or is it a late one from the 2013 season? lol), just to the east of Sri Lanka. Convection is being sheared west of a partially exposed LLCC. The convection associated with 01B is providing heavy rains to Sri Lanka, and the far southeast of India. A subtropical ridge to the north will steer 01B towards landfall in northern Sri Lanka, which should occur in just over 36hrs time. There is some question whether 01B will survive as a tropical cyclone that long; shear is not expected to abate from the current moderate levels, and dry air may become a negative factor as 01B approaches land. One thing we can be more confident of however is that 01B is not likely to strengthen anymore past it's current 35kt intensity.

Edited January 4, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

01B has strengthened to 40kts. The cyclone is close to landfall on northern Sri Lanka. 01B is still rather lopsided due to shear and dry air. With land interaction becoming an increasing factor too, 01B should soon dissipate.

[Somerset Squall]

01B has fallen apart over Sri Lanka. JTWC have issued their last advisory. Heavy rains may continue for a day or two.