Atlantic Storms January 2014

[Jax]

 

The floods affecting large parts of the country are probably connected to climate change, David Cameron has said.

 

The prime minister told MPs that there were more "abnormal" weather events occurring and he "suspected" they were linked to global temperature changes.

 

Several senior Conservatives, including former Chancellor Lord Lawson, are professed "climate change sceptics".

 

Whatever the reason for the recent weather, Mr Cameron said it made sense to invest in the UK's flood defences.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25656426

 

Utter rubbish, more building on areas prone to flooding and then defences put in to divert the flooding that just moves the problem not solve it, a defence does not make the flood waters vanish.

[Thunder Snow]

No rain here so far just alittle drizzle, a welcome change

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

No rain here so far just alittle drizzle, a welcome change

 

This is set to change, unfortunately.

 

Strongest PPN signals consistently occupying NW England, Western Wales etc.  50mm+, this excludes any convective elements associated with Pm airmass and the passing of cold/occlusion frontal passages.

[Coast]

Flooding in Britain: Anatomy of a storm

 

Britain's stormiest December since 1969 came from somewhere south of Newfoundland, according to the Met Office - and there’s more bad news to come...

 

We have taken a battering lately, and our winter woes are not over yet. Forecasters at the Met Office say the weather will turn much colder over the next week or so, bringing frost, ice and even snow – a disaster for those whose homes have been flooded and are still full of water. “We are sitting in the battlefield between two weather systems,†says the Met Office chief meteorologist, Paul Davies. One is pushing in from Scandinavia, threatening extreme cold. The other – which has been winning for the past month – is coming across the Atlantic from North America. At times like this, the weather charts on banks of screens at the futuristic Met Office headquarters near Exeter look like war maps. Arrows show the forces of destruction have been gathering far to the west and rushing across the ocean at phenomenal wind speeds of up to 270mph, bringing torrential rain and mighty waves. “Getting storms is one thing, but the wind is what has made this exceptional,†says the forecaster Helen Chivers, after the stormiest calendar month since 1969. Lives have been lost, defences destroyed, homes ruined.

 

So what, exactly, has been happening, and what will happen next? We are often told “it is all about the jet stream†but what is that? And why is it dropping what the Americans call “weather bombs� The story begins somewhere over the sea just south of Newfoundland, where the jet stream often starts. Essentially, this is a fast-moving stream of air going from west to east high in the atmosphere, up where airliners fly. You can’t see it, but you certainly can feel it – and if you are an airline pilot heading home to Britain from the States then you want to find it. “If a pilot can find the jet stream and ride the wind, they will save money on fuel and get there quicker and everybody is happy, thank you very much,†says Chivers. If you have ever seen the movie Finding Nemo then think of the scene in which the turtles hitch a ride on the fast-moving undertow that pulls them along with barely any effort at all. (If you haven’t, then you really should…) That is how the jet stream can work for pilots, and it can usually be found somewhere between 25,000ft and 32,000ft.

 

It is always there, although the height, depth and exact position changes. Much of the time it meanders across the Atlantic like a great unseen river, at about 100mph. Broadly speaking, the weather above it on the map is cold and nasty, while below it is warmer and more pleasant. That is because the jet stream exists on the fault line between cold air coming down from the North Pole and warm air coming up from the tropics. The line shifts around and so does the jet stream, which is created by interaction between the two forces. Davies compares them to the warm air that sits over an English beach on a hot day and the cold air that sits over the sea. “At some point, usually towards the end of morning, you begin to feel wind on your face,†he says. “The air over the land is being heated and rising, leaving a gap. This has to be filled, so cold air comes rushing in from the sea and that is the wind you feel.†Now think of the same thing happening on a vast scale where the tropical and polar air meets, with one rushing in to take the place of the other. “Basically, that is how the wind is generated that becomes the jet stream.â€

 

The strength and speed of the stream increased dramatically in December because of the interaction between tropical air and the extreme cold snap freezing the eastern side of the United States. Caribbean hurricanes also contributed, says Chivers. “Storms can make the jet stream stronger, and the jet stream can make storms stronger; they can feed each other. That is probably what happened in this case.†So pulses of wind began to surge along the jet stream, not meandering now but heading straight for us with undiluted power. This brought storms, torrential rain and, latterly, huge waves. The peak of the assault came on January 3, when the charts showed the surge in the jet stream as a massive force beginning at Newfoundland and reaching right across the Atlantic, bending away towards the Bay of Biscay, then swerving north to us. Imagine a mighty onrushing river that is relatively shallow but hundreds of miles wide and thousands of miles long. On this day, it was 36,000ft up in the air and coming towards Britain at speeds of up to 270 miles per hour.

 

Away to its left, on the edge of the jet stream, the wind speed dropped suddenly and the atmospheric pressure fell. That is what usually happens, but this time the effect was dramatic, says Chivers. “If the pressure falls by 24 millibars in 24 hours, then that is what we call 'explosive deepening’, and the Americans call a 'weather bomb’.†They mean the same thing: “You get really strong winds and rain.†The jet stream had been creating weather bombs and dropping them on Britain for a few weeks, to devastating effect. Homes had been flooded, power lines had come down, hundreds of thousands of people had been left in the dark at Christmas. But now something more was brewing. “If you want huge waves, then you don’t want your storm to come whipping across straight away,†says Davies. “You want it to drop off and sit out there in the Atlantic for a while, so that it has time to link to the ocean and start moving things up and down. It’s like in the bath, you can do splishes and splashes, but if you really slow it down and generate big movements you can make waves that go over the edge.â€

 

Other factors came into play, says Chivers. “The low pressure system does not put as much weight down as a high pressure one, so that pulled the sea up a bit more. We started to get really high astronomical tides coming in anyway. Then the wind blew, and this raised water mass towards the shore, which is when you get your storm surges.†The shipping forecast for Jan 3 was terrifying, with arrows warning of Force 11 in the areas Sole, Fitzroy and Lundy. Huge waves crashed against the west coast, endangering lives. Still it was not over. On the same day, a weather system left the United States that would bring a second assault to us a few days later. “It was a depression that had brought snow to the States, went out on the jet stream, dropped off in the mid-Atlantic and stayed there,†says Chivers. “Then it came slowly across as this enormous low pressure system, pushing water towards us.†We feel the effects of such storms more than ever, thanks to our dependence on electricity and electronics, but how unusual is this weather? “We live in the UK, we get battered by storms all the time,†says Chivers. “There was the Royal Charter Storm of 1859, the Great Storm of 1987, the storms of November 2012.†But that was just over a year ago. “Is it happening more often? You’d have to do a lot more research to work that out.â€

 

David Cameron, the Prime Minister, believes we are seeing “more abnormal weather events†and climate change is part of the cause. Officially, the Met Office says the link is unclear. The woman who briefs the PM at times of national emergency, such as we have had lately, is Pat Boyle, head of civil contingencies. “It’s a person-to-person conversation, what is happening now and what is going to happen in the future, setting the scene and setting out the risk,†she says. So let’s ask her what we have in store. The weather has calmed down but the computer models can see up to 10 days in advance, so what do they say? “We are definitely now going into a quieter period, with good spells of dry weather in between the rain, which will allow things to recover a little bit,†she says. “But it is going to return to normal temperatures for this time of year, which means frost and ice by night and snow on high ground.â€

 

The weakening jet stream has actually brought us relatively warm weather after the storms, but that could now be pushed back by the cold from Scandinavia. “It has been remarkably mild because we have had all this Atlantic weather and we have had very little snow. But the temperature will drop in the middle of [this] week, and that will come as a shock to people,†says Boyle. She does add a note of caution. “The atmosphere is still very uncertain and unstable, so we need to keep an eye on things.†There is no doubt the Met Office is doing that. The operations room is like the set of a James Bond movie, with countless screens displaying the weather secrets of the world. Nobody does it better. But we need them to be this good, because somewhere out there in the atmosphere, the forces of destruction may be assembling again…

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10564661/storms-met-office-flooding-weather.html

Edited January 13, 2014 by Coast

[tinybill]

well looking  at  the models  to-night  looks  like  the  Atlantic  its sending loads of  rain soon  and deep into fantasy  world hence bring back the flooding  worry back to the already very wet  parts  of  the  u.k.

[Liam J]

Looks like we'll be entering into another very stormy period of weather during the latter part of the month. Some really eye catching if slightly worrying charts being churned out, stormy then cold? interesting times ahead. 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=192

Edited January 18, 2014 by Liam J

[Liam J]

This would be an exceptional wind event if it verified. near hurricane force winds battering N&W Ireland on the first chart. Lets see what the ensembles throw at us! 

 

Edited January 18, 2014 by Liam J

[The PIT]

Luckily ECM is really going for it. However the return of the storms has been hinted at a few times.

[The PIT]

This would be an exceptional wind event if it verified. near hurricane force winds battering N&W Ireland on the first chart. Lets see what the ensembles throw at us! 

 

gfs-0-192 (1).pnggfs-0-204.png

Now this feature is back at T144 for both the UKMO and GFS. So moving towards the reliable time frame. At the moment away from the west the winds don't look too bad. This could be sustained blow lasting several days if it comes off.

[Bobby]

Monster storm on the GFS 06z, the most immediate interest right now along with possible flooding (rather than cold/snow in the fantasy island of unicorns and fairies)

 

 

 

Hurricane force winds and 90mph+ gusts potenitally? Loads of rain too

 

 

UKMO and ECM also showing a nasty storm, one to keep an eye on!

[Liam J]

Got my eye this Bobby! Still a few days away yet before we'll know the true intensity and exact path it's likely to take. Certainly scope for something exceptional to develop, GFS very bullish about this and not without support - still some variations run to run, widespread severe gale to storm force winds a possibility! 

Edited January 21, 2014 by Liam J

[legritter]

YES certainly very interesting synoptics later this weekend ,and next week .still plenty of firming up to go but this could be bringing some wintry weather behind it ,tonights main runs should give us a clearer picture and of course todays Met update ,although i think they will side on caution ,may not be the Winter from hell regards snow ,but if you suffer with flooding it certainly is hell ,and warnings now out for this Friday ,cheers 

[Team Jo]

Got my eye this Bobby! Still a few days away yet before we'll know the true intensity and exact path it's likely to take. Certainly scope for something exceptional to develop, GFS very bullish about this and not without support - still some variations run to run, widespread severe gale to storm force winds a possibility! 

 

 

Not again.......... I had the Fence fixed on Saturday! It Blew down In November and there seemed no point in having it repaired. Bah! Make it go away Liam!

[Coast]

GFS very bullish about this

 

Bullish in a china shop by the looks of the 06z run:

 

 

 

Huge winds, huge gusts and:

 

 

Huge rain  

[Liam J]

 

 

 

Issued

Tue 21 Jan: 11:00 GMT

Valid From

Sun 26 Jan : 08:00 GMT(In 116hrs)

Valid Until

Tue 28 Jan : 00:00 GMT (156hrs remaining)

Advance Weather Warning for Heavy Rain and Severe Gales 

An intense Atlantic depression will affect many parts of the British Isles from Sunday (26th) until Wednesday (29th). 

Severe gale force winds are possible across Northern and Western parts of the British Isles with gusts of up to 100mph expected along exposed Western coasts. Wave heights of 30-40ft are also possible and expected to push South during Monday (27th) along Western Ireland and later South-west England. 

Heavy rain will accompany this system with the potential of 30-50mm (1-2") of rainfall across Western areas during this warning period with the risk of over 100mm (4") of rainfall across Western Scotland leading to the risk of local flooding and landslips. 

As the system tracks South during Tuesday the incursion of colder air at lower levels has the potential to bring snow to lower levels across parts of Northern and North-west England. 

This system has the potential to disrupt transport and power networks as well as cause significant damage to property caused by severe gales and heavy intense rainfall. 

 

 

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/warnings.asp

Edited January 21, 2014 by Liam J

[MrSunshine]

In a nutshell, Oh no! Looking potentially deadly Sunday night in to the new working week. 

Edited January 21, 2014 by DaveMac82

[Coast]

In a nutshell, Oh no! Looking potentially deadly Sunday night in to the new working week. 

 

Not good for Scotland and the North, with some problems down the East coast facing the North sea and along the Channel coast yet again. All the places that have come inf or a bombardment in the last few weeks. Worth keeping an eye on things as we get closer to the next potential storm.

[Bobby]

Another powerful storm on the GFS 12z but further North. Even if winds aren't an issue rain very likely will be

 

 

 

UKMO has somewhat weaker storm further S, more fiddling about by the models over the coming days

 

Edited January 21, 2014 by Bobby

[wimblettben]

Suprised there is hardly any mention about this on the Model output, you would think you were living on another world.

Edited January 21, 2014 by wimblettben

[Liam J]

Some extreme depressions coming out from the ensemble suite - http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=120

 

Still a bit of variation regarding the track - as expected at this range, the majority further south than the OP run.

Edited January 21, 2014 by Liam J

[hec1]

 

 

 

[wimblettben]

 

 

 

That looks pretty nasty!

 

One area of the isobars are so close together that you can't even make them out seperately. They have become just a solid colour of white.

Edited January 21, 2014 by wimblettben

[Bobby]

Holy Mary mother of God! GEFS P1

 

 

Increased support for a nasty storm on the 12z GEFS

 

         

Mean at +126

 

[Skullzrulerz]

It looks like we may need to watch this very closely it could become a beast?

 

Watch date Sunday 26th - Monday 27th

[The PIT]

Well the storm holds out to the west as the block holds on fairly well. So not to bad at the moment. If the block weakens though it may head our way.