From the States to Europe

[AWD]

I've heard numerous sayings, especially but not exclusively, from non weather enthusiasts, that we get the same weather that America gets further down the line.

Just watching the BBC news now and a report on the current freezing conditons in the U.S. came on. This caused lots if comments and reaction from my work colleagues, suggestive that we will experience such a weather type further down the line now because, and I quote, "America sends us their weather".

Like I said above though, it isn't exclusive to non weather enthusiasts though. I've heard such sayings on Netweather, other weather related forums and on professional weather forecasters social media feeds.

Is there any truth in this? Does the weather in America dictate the European weather patterns? Will the current freezing conditions in the USA make it to Europe in one way or another further down the line?

[Polar Bear]

This is an interesting discussion point and there could be  a little hint of truth in the saying that "we will get the same weather further down line" if we view it in the context of the Jet Stream.

 

This article on wunderground gives some food for thought and it makes sense -  if the Jet Stream is wibbly wobbly as it is now - then more extremes will occur.  Which it seems to be currently the case.

 

As to whether in the UK this will later therefore fall as snow  and very cold conditions as per the North America currently doesnt this depend on  which direction and where the jet stream wobbles over the UK  with the plethora of other influences such as low and high depressions, sea temps etc?

 

http://www.wunderground.com/news/heat-wave-alaska-jet-stream-may-be-blame-20130625

[Bobby]

Simplistically it makes sense, USA is to our west and is very cold, the weather generally comes from the west so we may get what they're having. But several thousand miles of ocean of course will kill any real cold than comes to us from the west, we get our cold spels from the N and E. Whether it may have some other effect in affecting the general circulation in the N. Hemisphere, making blocking more likely I don't know and I'm not sure anyone has proved a link, so it's a myth as far as I'm concerned unless someone can show there is some kind of link?

Edited January 7, 2014 by Bobby

[bluearmy]

sometimes it does and sometimes it doesnt. there are other variables at play which either prove or disprove the theory. (shock, horror).

[Summer Sun]

That cold in the USA would not survive the crossing over the Atlantic though would it? so if anything did come it would be a watered down version

[SomeLikeItHot]

Does the UK get its cold weather from the West. No it gets it from the north and East. Certainly not a case of the weather moving across

 

That said, it is possible that this piece of lore has some basis in the fact that it often occurs due to the similar circulation patterns eg. negative AO that can result in cold spilling into both regions.

[AWD]

My original post wasn't querying or suggesting we would get the freeze parts of the U.S.A. are getting. Obviously the Atlantic Ocean amongst other factors would tamper the airmass if it were to advect west.

My original post was more questioning the weather in the US repeating itself in the UK be it a week, month or year down the line and in what way the weather in the US dictates our weather patterns.

The UK and US are interlinked with the Jet Stream so there is obviously the consequences at each end there, but the bone of it all is why is there a misconception (if indeed it is a misconception) that a lot of non weather enthusiasts are under the impression that we will get what America gets? Be it rain/wind/snow/heat etc.

Why has this rumour arisen and is there any truth to it?

Be it hot/cold/wet/dry etc.

Edited January 7, 2014 by AWD

[Fat Bloke]

Old mothers tales speak to your mums/Grannies.

[hillbilly]

If we get our weather influenced by what is happening in America,who is to argue that they get their weather because of what is happening here!

Every single part of the earths weather is interlinked one way or another,the wind in new Zealand makes it snow in Scotland just as a still day in London causes floods in tierra del fuego!

[Bobby]

If we get our weather influenced by what is happening in America,who is to argue that they get their weather because of what is happening here!

Every single part of the earths weather is interlinked one way or another,the wind in new Zealand makes it snow in Scotland just as a still day in London causes floods in tierra del fuego!

 

True, the old butterly effect and chaos theory. Makes it hard to link one thing to another especially over long distances and timescales.

[halny]

I guess if the NAO turns negative, both Eastern N. America and Western Europe get affected.  The means for the Northeast and Midwest are about -10C to 0C whereas for Northwestern Europe they're about 0C to 5C, so it often takes longer for Western Europe to experience wintry weather from a negative NAO than it does for the eastern States, which are generally quite cold to begin with anyway.  In that sense, wintry weather in the US resulting from Atlantic blocking often precedes that in Western Europe.

 

This particular North American cold/snow outbreak is not related to a negative NAO, however, so Western Europe need not expect extreme cold any time soon.  That said, anything can happen, but if it does, it probably won't be related to the recent American coldwave in any obvious way.

Edited January 7, 2014 by halny

[Paul]

Jo has written a blog about this today:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=5605;sess=

[johnholmes]

Jo has written a blog about this today:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=5605;sess=

 

both that and the one explainng the Polar Vortex are well worth reading

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Yes, good quick read that John, but doesn't really answer the 'we get what America gets, just two weeks later' question. And to me the answer is a pretty resounding 'No'. For starters when it comes to cold weather, whilst it isn't unheard of for us to get cold weather from our north west, almost all our coldest air is sourced from anywhere from a direct Arctic northerly round to a continental SSE direction, so for the vast majority of these cases it'd probably be more accurate to say that what Moscow gets we'll get a few days later. And for Atlantic driven weather, whilst it is true that weather conditions on the eastern side of the North American continent can have some bearing on the strength and amplitude of the jet stream it's generally accepted that temperature anomalies between the Arctic and mid latitude temperate regions in general has at least as much effect. And as to our weather in general, most of our 'weather', i.e. the stuff that actually arrives at our shores, it's either initiated out in the Atlantic, or from the continent. I think the only times I've seen a specific weather system actually cross the Atlantic and still be recognisably the same system, although significantly modified, is when we get the tail-ends of ex-hurricane depressions.

 

What will be depressing is that if we do end up getting a cold spell in around a week's time no doubt there will be plenty of statements saying just that, we've got the weather America had before..........................

[johnholmes]

Yes, good quick read that John, but doesn't really answer the 'we get what America gets, just two weeks later' question. And to me the answer is a pretty resounding 'No'. For starters when it comes to cold weather, whilst it isn't unheard of for us to get cold weather from our north west, almost all our coldest air is sourced from anywhere from a direct Arctic northerly round to a continental SSE direction, so for the vast majority of these cases it'd probably be more accurate to say that what Moscow gets we'll get a few days later. And for Atlantic driven weather, whilst it is true that weather conditions on the eastern side of the North American continent can have some bearing on the strength and amplitude of the jet stream it's generally accepted that temperature anomalies between the Arctic and mid latitude temperate regions in general has at least as much effect. And as to our weather in general, most of our 'weather', i.e. the stuff that actually arrives at our shores, it's either initiated out in the Atlantic, or from the continent. I think the only times I've seen a specific weather system actually cross the Atlantic and still be recognisably the same system, although significantly modified, is when we get the tail-ends of ex-hurricane depressions.

 

What will be depressing is that if we do end up getting a cold spell in around a week's time no doubt there will be plenty of statements saying just that, we've got the weather America had before..........................

 

I thought that is waht Jo printed on the first line?