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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

From the moment the possible Easterly was showing on the model output, my main concern was getting a decent circulation of low pressure around Northern Italy, this provides the extra kick to get the cold air to our showers.

 

A couple of days ago, more than half the Vienna GFS ensembles have pressure of around 990mb or below, indicating a decent circulation, todays 0z's have only two.

 

If we had had a decent low pressure over Italy, it would have interacted with the Atlantic low pulling it South East and bringing in the Easterly, ultimately not enough energy has gone south eastwards and we are left in no man's land.

 

Still time for change though.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Looking at shorter term, we have 5 or so days of predominately dryer weather which will allow the floods to ease. We should also have a week where there will be no need for weather warnings.

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The ECM temperature ensembles for De Bilt backs down from cold - though a few cold 'rogue' runs still present.

 

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=00

 

Still time for change but I think we need to start looking for our next opportunity...

Has to be said,thats a bitterly disappointing set of ensembles and thats for Holland!

I think we can pretty much write off another week as far as the hunt for cold is concerned.

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

 we need to start looking for our next opportunity...

 

 

Agree. ECM at 240 might be a good place to startPosted Image

 

Posted Image

 

That's a good evolution. We'd have banked that 2 weeks a go.

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

The ECM temperature ensembles for De Bilt backs down from cold - though a few cold 'rogue' runs still present.

 

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=00

 

Still time for change but I think we need to start looking for our next opportunity...

O they are not good are they. If anything the ECM Op this morning was one of the colder options with the majority of the enembles being warmer than the OP.

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Posted
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem

The reason this has gone pearshaped is its called "the curse of telling your friends and family a cold, snowy spell of weather is on its way". As soon as I do this the models flip!!

Or even worse, posting on Facebook.

 

Looks like we'll have to wait until we see the effects of any further warming to propergate through to the model output. Could be nearer the month end i am led to believe?

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

O they are not good are they. If anything the ECM Op this morning was one of the colder options with the majority of the enembles being warmer than the OP.

 

The ECM mean at 168 hrs looks pretty decent with still time for improvement.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire

Hello,

 

Any views on the ECM Ensembles this morning. Sorry no access to charts.

 

Many thanks

 

TSNWK

 

Not great :

 

edit: sorry if you cant see that, majority staying on the milder side in the 15d ensembles

post-4955-0-77657200-1389347437_thumb.pn

Edited by Arron B
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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

a realistic look at the various types of model output this morning to 240h-are they consistent, has too much been hoped for rather than realism?

read my pdf

 

Posted Imageso what do the different models show for 240h-10 jan 14.pdf

A good, informative read John, which puts the goalposts exactly where they should be...for now.

 

Turning colder yes (to be fair It couldn't really become much milder), some if not a fair amount of optimism for cold eventually developing from much more promising synoptis than seen thus far all winter, but nothing currently to suggest the kind of more extreme senarios recently modelled will come to fruition any time soon. In other words...pretty much where we've actually been for several days now. 

Edited by shedhead
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The GFS ensembles have delayed any potential cold snap to the 19th now they all agree on a rise again around the 23rd

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

At least rainfall doesn't look as bad over the next 2 weeks that is welcome sight for all areas but more especially the flood hit parts

Edited by Summer Sun
How mean of the ensembles to do that - what party poopers.
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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

The GFS ensembles have delayed any potential cold snap to the 19th now they all agree on a rise again around the 23rd

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

At least rainfall doesn't look as bad over the next 2 weeks that is welcome sight for all areas but more especially the flood hit parts

I think that's a bit of hope casting there mate to be honest, there's so much scatter in there there is no clear trend, I certainly don't look at those and see a rise on the 23rd.

As frustrating as it has been yet again , all of the experts on hear have never been shouting from the roof tops regarding a big freeze, we had one day where. We appeared to have cross model agreements of a cold spell , that was Wednesday , and it's been a steady clime down since then , at least things are looking more favourable now than all winter !

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

You'd think from today's comments that the ECM mean must have flipped this morning - I was surprised when comparing yesterday's T144 with today's T120 (i.e. same timeframe) to find only small changes, basically in the shape of the low. Just goes to show how tiny changes affect everything else.

Posted Image

Posted Image

The difference between yesterday's T192 and today's T168, however, is quite marked:

Posted Image

Posted Image

All down to the low being less of a "slider" and more of a "stayer". Fine, fine margins. Is it really all over?

Edited by rjbw
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

06GFS maintain the theme of the 00Z the low is not getting under and to the right and is sitting over the UK and filling in situ.. loads of rain I would have thought 2nd part of next week.

 

trends are not good at thre moment, we have lost the mid week cold and hope for cold towards the end of next week is not heading in the right direction.

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Things haven't really changed that much to be honest. Are we going to get a cold spell or just an average one?

The most recent trend does seem to be towards an average regime rather than a cold one but there is still a lot of uncertainty.

GEFS this morning show a generally mild outcome although there is not much to back it up really and consistency from GEFS is non existent!

The 06z shows a worsening picture for coldies (see below) but then what can really be read into that? The 12z is likely to throw something else up so hold onto your hats please!

 

Posted Image

Unsettled and wet I'm afraid.

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Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: NW London

I think we need to look for our next opportunity to be honest, there are just to many things going against us this time to realistically give us coldies what we are after.

Lets hope that we can at least see a change from the wet theme for now, that is probably the best we can hope for next week.

Edited by Snowman31
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Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

The much maligned CFSv2 has been consistently predicting a milder and wetter than average January and February.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euPrece1Mon.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me2Mon.html

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

will be interested to see what ian posts later re mogreps-15 because the extended ecm ens mean output continue to show the 11-15 day jet splitting n and south of the uk. mlb with a weak euro trough in place ? if only we could get some embedded surface cold ........................

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

I think we need to look for our next opportunity to be honest, there are just to many things going against us this time to realistically give us coldies what we are after.

Lets hope that we can at least see a change from the wet theme for now, that is probably the best we can hope for next week.

The next 'opportunity would be a continuation of what is evolving.

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

A trend for a sinking trough into Europe and a pressure rise to the North & West as indicated by the anomaly charts

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

A big improvement on what we've had so far this winter so why chuck in the towel?

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Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL

I think we need to look for our next opportunity to be honest, there are just to many things going against us this time to realistically give us coldies what we are after.

Lets hope that we can at least see a change from the wet theme for now, that is probably the best we can hope for next week.

Why would we be looking for the next opportunity when this one is still unfolding? Learned members of this forum have said there will be lots of solutions so I am not panicking yet.

 

The low and its orientation will change right up to 24hrs before so IMO nothing is a done deal yet and to quote my favourite phrase from last winter 'Shannon entropy ensues'.

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