Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[Summer Sun]

A quick look before the GFS 12z is out and the 06z anomaly shows the colder air becoming restricted further north

 

[Panayiotis]

I know a lot of people tell others not to look too closely into the model run but the 12z certainly has more of a negative tilt towards the SE on that low which is a good sign at least! (Slight differences make all the difference!)

 

6z

 

 

12z

 

Heights look better to the north and low exiting the US is less deep...

[Eskimo]

And again at the +90h mark! More of a squeeze towards the continent!! Hopefully by +120h, heights will start to fall across Southern Europe. 

06z

 

12z

[Mucka]

Marginally better than the 06z with the low a little further South and the high a little further West and just a hint of disruption SE.

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Ever so slightly better in terms of orientation of the low but still looks vert wet next week and we're getting to that timeframe where minor adjustments are not going to be enough.

[cooling climate]

Looking at the GFS 12z run come out at t108 its hard to believe just 48 hours ago at t156

the models were showing the onset of an easterly with us thinking we only have to look out

for spoiler shortwaves lol.

Not a very nice chart to look at considering the amount of rain it will bring with it.

Signs possibly of a undercut at t120. We will see.

No scrub that.

Edited January 10, 2014 by cooling climate

[Allseasons-Si]

How many times have you hit the refresh button on the charts and on here lol!

 

the low @120 has a better tilt to it to the ne flank on the 12z

 

12z 06z

[TSNWK]

So frustrating.. Again it lingers over us from around 114 onwards to 132 so far flling in situ... Get a move on mr low...

Sorry but around 132 to 138 I think this run is trending the wrong way, heights not so strong to the north east and less energy ( not that was much anyway) has gone south east...

Edited January 10, 2014 by TSNWK

[karlos1983]

Looking at the GFS 12z run come out at t108 its hard to believe just 48 hours ago at t156

the models were showing the onset of an easterly with us thinking we only have to look out

for spoiler shortwaves lol.

Not a very nice chart to look at considering the amount of rain it will bring with it.

Signs possibly of a undercut at t120. We will see.

 

Yet only a few days before that we couldn't have seen coming what we are seeing in the output today..

 

It's encouraging in my eyes that we are seeing a shift west on the 12z GFS, rather than East. If we see small changes like that on each run until this time tomorrow, small changes can make a big difference. 

 

Anyway, I wait the UKMO and ECM. but I feel this will not be concluded today!

[Jason T]

OOOOH, Just came along this...Posted on Twits.

 

Our new QBO index automated analog builder capturing the pattern nicely- suggestive colder East than what models show.

 

 

 

http://t.co/u3SHLIyThd

Edited January 10, 2014 by Jason T

[karlos1983]

OOOOH, Just came along this...Posted on Twits.

 

Our new QBO index automated analog builder capturing the pattern nicely- suggestive colder East than what models show.

 

 

 

http://t.co/u3SHLIyThd

 

Who posted that JasonT?

[lassie23]

JMA is going for a progressively colder scenario as we head towards the end of January and into February. The ECMWF attempts to set up an easterly which fails three times, but succeeds on the fourth attempt come the end of next week. So cheer up people and don't take each model run literally, it's the final evolution that's important and most models are going for cold.

[cooling climate]

Going by the 12z run the UK will see colder air this weekend than what we are likely

to see next week. Not a very nice run at all if its cold you are looking for.

At t168 the high is drifting off into western Russia with another low running under

Greenland and no cold air anywhere near the UK.

[That ECM]

This is actually worse than the 6z

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4839/gfsnh-0-174_saz6.pngI would disagree, assuming your looking at it from a cold perspective. At least a chance to build heights to our north from here.

[gottolovethisweather]

Another strange run from the GFS 12z even in the high resolution part, the timeframe to watch on other outputs is as soon as next Wednesday, i.e the 15th January. The way the stalling and supposedly filling depression stays over the UK for several days around that timeframe isn't logical IMHO, specific events occurring thereafter aren't worth considering, whatever they might show.  The much touted phrase "Shannon Entrophy" springs to mind here. We best await some guidance from elsewhere before jumping to any conclusions about this being yet another Easterly miss. A colder pattern is emerging, albeit a bit of a stagnant one with a lot of rainfall potential yet again.

Edited January 10, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[TSNWK]

All looks rather different and odd to me around 168 to 192. Our lingering low has not really taken a hike and is kinda of still there filling in and to our north there is nothingness..

Any views on that nothingness please.. No idea if good or bad..

Edited January 10, 2014 by TSNWK

[Mucka]

Extraordinary output this evening with our High retreating SE at an alarming rate.

 

GEM

 

 

Somehow still finds a way to give us an East flow though low pressure driven rather than high!

Edited January 10, 2014 by Mucka

[karlos1983]

All looks rather different and odd to me around 168 to 192. Our lingering low has not really taken a hike and is kinda of still there filling in and to our north there is nothingness..Any views on that nothingness please.. No idea if good or bad..

 

Bizarre stuff, I can only think it is down to the jet digging all the way down to Africa, rather than of to the east, which just lets that Low hang out with nothing to steer it.

 

Probably wrong, but that's all that makes logical sense to me.

[itsnowjoke]

All looks rather different and odd to me around 168 to 192. Our lingering low has not really taken a hike and is kinda of still there filling in and to our north there is nothingness.. Any views on that nothingness please.. No idea if good or bad..

Yes i would like to know that too.

[TSNWK]

For the nervous ones may I suggest you skip low res.. It's an absolute horror show in the middle. Azores high ridging in vortex looking mean... Only good thing about it is that it is GFS low res and ends at 384

Make that middle and end.. Horrid.. Yellows and reds over us from Azores high..

Next please...

Edited January 10, 2014 by TSNWK

[Summer Sun]

GFS 8 day temperature anomaly shows little change between the 06z and 12z runs

 

 

06z

 

[gottolovethisweather]

A fantastic end to the GFS 12z from t+288 to t+364 if it were SUMMER. Spanish plume anyone? Jet heading North and early start to Spring perhaps   Model consensus confusion begins around the 15th on this run I reckon so will have to see what the ensembles suggest and of course all other NWP output.

Edited January 10, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[IDO]

GEM kills the heights to our NE after T120, sinking SE and returns to zonal through the run, although a lot less hard core:

 

T240:      

 

Pretty average January stuff. The trend is increasingly poor; who said the output couldn't get worse?

Edited January 10, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[mountain shadow]

Well, based on the GFS 12z run we can certainly rule out next week for any snow.

 

The only positive in any output at the moment is the stratospheric warming which hopefully will start to deliver in early February.

[Fozfoster]

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140110/12/384/h850t850eu.png I like this at T384 LOL.