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Spring 2014 Discussion


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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

I'm expecting an 'early' Spring, to follow the mild winter.

With the weather settling down towards end of February i reckon we'll be in for a warm March & April, and fairly dry as well.

Hunch forecast.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

I think a dry average early spring, with things becoming unsettled again by late Spring, but hopefully not to wet.

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Posted
  • Location: Alston, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Proper Seasons,lots of frost and snow October to April, hot summers!
  • Location: Alston, Cumbria

Mild winters tend to be followed by warm springs- the seas are warmer than usual around the coasts of Britain and the Westerlies (which will have kept Britain free of snow during the winter) tend to do likewise across much of western Europe going into spring:  Continental Europe then warms up quickly in the sunshine in March/April if there is not a reflective layer of snow-cover over it.  This in turn means that any winds that come off continental Europe in March/April (the likelihood of east and SE winds does increase in early spring) tend to be warmer following mild winters because of the fact that an ice-free continent warms more quickly.  Seasonally warmer-than-usual coastal waters (as is the case after mild winters) are also conducive to higher temperatures in spring both day and night.

 

There is a caveat:  As the Arctic starts to warm from its frigid winter depths whilst the North Atlantic in general is at its coldest the strong baroclinic gradient (atmospheric temperature and pressure gradient) between the Arctic and lower mid-latitudes weakens sharply and the chilly North Atlantic provides less of an energy source (in the form of evaporated moisture) to fuel sub-arctic depressions and the Westerlies on their southern flanks.  This, combined with the rapid warming of the great Eurasian and North American landmasses means that the upper Westerlies that encircle the Arctic can easily flip into a four-wave circumpolar pattern with a ridge anchored to the Rockies- this places high-pressure west of Britain with depressions moving south-east into Europe (meaning cold north-west winds over the UK- bringing showers of hail and snow, with night-frost in April).  However, if the weakened upper Westerlies flip into a five-wave pattern (with the ridge anchored to the American Rockies), this is not that unlikely if the NE Atlantic is unusually warm- then high-pressure is over or slightly east of Britain and an April "heatwave" as in April 2003 or April 2011 is likely (though possibly with cold nights).

 

Fact is, the weather-patterns tend to change markedly throughout the spring as the upper Westerlies weaken and become susceptible to the influence of changing sea-surface temperatures, warming continents, etc.  For all that my money is on a warmer- than-usual spring; not a lot so overall and I am confident there will be both warm and cold spells.  March will probably be stormy as the intense temperature gradient between a very cold Canada and temperate North Atlantic will still be fueling deep sub-arctic depressions.  Westerlies will predominate until early April because the NE Trade Winds will still be strong until then- and there will be a corresponding "need" for strong higher-latitude Westerlies to counterbalance them; as the subtropical continents get very hot in April and May (which weakens the NE Trade Winds) this will reduce the need for strong Westerlies in higher latitudes.

 

The sharp temperature contrast between a very cold Canada and the North Atlantic will also ensure that, at least until late April (when NE Canada warms up), there is likely to be depressions in the far North Atlantic- which tends to preclude the possibility of easterlies over Britain in March and April.  Thus Westerlies will hold sway until mid-April (with short snaps from the north-west off a very cold Greenland possible); after that a mixture of warm sunny spells and cold, showery spells (with snow in the North) and night-frost, and some wet spells with westerlies- will dominate from mid-April onwards.  Easterlies are most likely to occur in May.

 

Ian      

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Snowdrops flowering in the garden. About a month earlier than last year. Tulips also poking their heads through. The borders are taking on that late winter/early spring look with shoots everywhere.

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

Snowdrops flowering in the garden. About a month earlier than last year. Tulips also poking their heads through. The borders are taking on that late winter/early spring look with shoots everywhere.

Strange as I was just about to say snowdrops are late to say it has been so mild,have seen them in early jan before,none out yet .Last year was unusual in they were out by the end of jan but were kept alive due to the cold right through to april!

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Snowdrops are a month earlier than last year but strangely later than 2007 despite winter so far being just as mild. Maybe the cold November hindered growth at the end of last year.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

The respective autumns may well be a factor as the autumn of 2006 was a record-breaking warm one.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Jamstec's January update is finally in for spring

 

For precipitation the current signal is average UK wide

 

Posted Image

 

For the Air temperature anomaly the current signal is average to slightly below away from the UK a lot of Europe is show to be above normal

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Bring on spring i say.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Well, now that i have accepted the death of winter 2013 i am now on the look out for Spring proper.

 

What am i looking for? Well firstly the +5C isotherm and secondly 1020mb pressure over the UK.

 

The GFS12z in FI brings high pressure over the UK and then produces what would be in summer a classic Spanish plume..

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Yes, 1994/95 was one of those seasons where the spring quarter was widely snowier than the winter quarter- and that winter quarter was nothing like as snowless over lowland Britain as this one has been so far, as the westerlies were sometimes interrupted by fairly potent, if short-lived, northerlies.  A more recent stark example was 2007/08.

 

I'll be very surprised if 2013/14 doesn't end up being added to the list.  I am expecting another mild, wet, gale-strewn month in February but have a suspicion that some colder zonality and/or northerly outbreaks will develop as we head into March.  Note that even some of the warm springs of recent years- 1999 and 2007 for instance- were snowier over most parts of lowland Britain than this "winter" has been so far.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

Seeing a lot of spring growth here, also went out to the car earlier and noticed hedgehog poo so know they are up and about, just want to see a return to growth and sunny warm weather now.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Personally I'm going for a continuation of the unsettled pattern through much of March, similar perhaps to 2008. Don't know why that is, but March often produces unsettled spells, especially during the first half, and unless something drastic changes to the current pattern we're in between now and then, I can't see how it will change.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Yes, 1994/95 was one of those seasons where the spring quarter was widely snowier than the winter quarter- and that winter quarter was nothing like as snowless over lowland Britain as this one has been so far, as the westerlies were sometimes interrupted by fairly potent, if short-lived, northerlies.  A more recent stark example was 2007/08.

 

I'll be very surprised if 2013/14 doesn't end up being added to the list.  I am expecting another mild, wet, gale-strewn month in February but have a suspicion that some colder zonality and/or northerly outbreaks will develop as we head into March.  Note that even some of the warm springs of recent years- 1999 and 2007 for instance- were snowier over most parts of lowland Britain than this "winter" has been so far.

 

Most of England saw a good snow event in Feb 07 although the March northerly was notable. I also recall a toppler or two in January.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I'm still going with the impacts of the Resilient High over the north Pacific setting things up for our weather here? If so then the Jet drifting North will be the only thing to moderate the weather we are , and have been, seeing.

 

As the Jet drifts north so will the storm tracks bringing a spring of sunshine and showers and the warmth of a big warm sector in between. Scotland will go all scotts and cop for the rain while the SE will see very little.

 

Should the Jet kink further north to ridge to the NW of the UK ( before plunging into the continent) then we might all see the benefits of the Azores High on our spring weather or even a 'block' as Greenland and Azores join forces.

 

Whatever happens please let it be mild/warm........ I do so hate cold wet weather.......

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I think it's unlikely we will get a cold snowy spring , although I would certainly love that! I've had no snowmen building or sledging with my kids ! Very disappointing ! Does it usually follow suit that if the states have a very cold and snowy winter then the uk will get a wet one ? I'm hoping for a nice warm summer now as the winter this far has been so awful !

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

As sure it will be a cold spring as usual after this poor winter same as last year....

 

For Feb to April this is what the met office expect if the contingency planners forecast it to be beleived

 

For February, March, April as a whole, confidence is lower, but temperatures near to slightly above average are most probable

 

Precipitation wise

 

During February, the balance of probabilities suggests a continuation of the very unsettled weather experienced so far this winter, with above-average rainfall most probable. For February-March-April, predictions for rainfall are very uncertain and largely indistinguishable from climatology. The probability that UK precipitation for February-March-April will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 20 and 25% and the probability of falling into the driest of our five categories is between 15 and 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2915330

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LOL, always amuses me when people expect spring to be one long dry warm season, check the averages and you'll see a different story, around 2C colder than your average Autumn, Autumn is useless for cold, Spring isn't and the thought of a boring 6 months of HP doesn't exactly inspire me, so hoping the jet remains active for a good while yet so we can have some interesting PM northwesterlies in April when they are interesting, amazes me how people on here want stormy weather in winter only when its the best time for HP and cold/frost but the rest of the year they want boring HP, strange.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

LOL, always amuses me when people expect spring to be one long dry warm season, check the averages and you'll see a different story, around 2C colder than your average Autumn, Autumn is useless for cold, Spring isn't and the thought of a boring 6 months of HP doesn't exactly inspire me, so hoping the jet remains active for a good while yet so we can have some interesting PM northwesterlies in April when they are interesting, amazes me how people on here want stormy weather in winter only when its the best time for HP and cold/frost but the rest of the year they want boring HP, strange.

 

Yes, agree, and amazes me even more when people like you get banned from forums for daring to wish for anything else!!!!

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