spring 2014 Spring 2014 Discussion

[feb1991blizzard]

For Feb to April this is what the met office expect if the contingency planners forecast it to be beleived

 

For February, March, April as a whole, confidence is lower, but temperatures near to slightly above average are most probable

 

Precipitation wise

 

During February, the balance of probabilities suggests a continuation of the very unsettled weather experienced so far this winter, with above-average rainfall most probable. For February-March-April, predictions for rainfall are very uncertain and largely indistinguishable from climatology. The probability that UK precipitation for February-March-April will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 20 and 25% and the probability of falling into the driest of our five categories is between 15 and 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2915330

 

 

I don't think I have heard a Met Office forecast that has predicted below average seasonal temperatures for the last 6 years but...............

[Captain Shortwave]

Spring is a great season for all weather types, cold, warm, even hot come May. Also the convective season starts to kick off and the chances of constant rain and gales slowly gets replaced by a more changeable and showery nature as the embers of the polar vortex slowly die for another season. 

I would like to see a drier than normal Spring with most precipitation coming in the form of showers. A more amplified Atlantic pattern to deliver a few decent northerlies before we start to draw up warm air later on in the spring.

 

Though personally I see March being a wet and slightly below average temperature wise month, April being average in both departments and May being warmer and drier than average as the Azores high slowly takes control on proceedings. 

Just an amateur guess mind you

CFS seems quite keen on a fairly warm spring with rainfall being more showery.

Edited February 2, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think that the majority of N-W members are cold winter/warm summer fans, following the fairly popular desire for winters to be like 1963 and summers to be like 1976, as those extremes often live on in the memory and get a lot of people interested in the weather in the first place.  The forecasters and moderators on this site are predominantly "hardcore" weather enthusiasts who have developed an appreciation for a wide range of weather types, but they are somewhat in the minority as a percentage of the forum's total membership.  The preaviling desire for endless high pressure in late spring/summer and associated perception that those who also enjoy other types of weather are weird does grate with me sometimes as I also come across it a lot with the general public.

 

Temperatures near to slightly above average imply to me that the spring quarter will probably have rather more snowfall than the winter quarter, although it is possible that temperatures could be homogeneously near-normal, or warm in March/April and cold in May.  Spring 2008 saw the other side of the coin, where slightly above average temperatures were arrived at thanks to a fairly cold, wintry March and April and then a warm May.

[Summer Sun]

March and April outlook from weather online

 

A better March

Mixed for April

Issued: Monday 3rd February 2014
Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

*March*

 

There are indications that March could well be a much improved month when compared to recently. With a ridge building to the south conditions are likely to be milder than recently, and it is likely to be drier too. There will still be outbreaks of rain to the north and west of Scotland and perhaps the northern half of Ireland, but overall it is looking drier, brighter and warmer for most. We may think that spring has arrived early, but towards the second half of the month we may start to see a change taking place. Lower pressure developing across the continent may allow the winds to turn to the southeast and then east. This flips the weather pattern with the south then seeing bands of rain, and the north turning drier.

*April*

 

An unsettled start to the month with rain affecting southern areas due to low pressure being over France. This could bring some wet and chilly days to England, Wales and southern Ireland, although drier over Scotland, especially the west. The flow is expected to return to a more westerly direction as the month progresses, bringing an mixed end to April for all. Most rainfall in more northern areas, and near normal levels to the south. Temperatures near normal too.

Simon

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=206&FILE=sea&DAY=20140203

[feb1991blizzard]

Who says 22nd March last year cannot be equalled, try this!!!

 

[Weather-history]

The wettest Spring on record by the way was in 1782........

[feb1991blizzard]

The wettest Spring on record by the way was in 1782........

 

I don't think that will be threatened,  OT  but surely the wettest winter on record will be threatened if we fail to get any amplification upstream and this rain tonking continues the whole way through??

[summer blizzard]

I don't think that will be threatened,  OT  but surely the wettest winter on record will be threatened if we fail to get any amplification upstream and this rain tonking continues the whole way through??

 

Probably not nationally.

[Weather-history]

Probably not nationally.

I don't agree I think we are well in with a chance, just about 83mm to go.

[Gray-Wolf]

I still think we have to wait for the Jet to move north as we progress into spring before we find ourselves out of the firing line of the progression of lows? As long as that High is sat over the North Pacific then Canada and the U.S. will continue to see polar outbreaks and the resultant cold, flowing out over the relatively warm Atlantic, will keep the Jet fired up slinging low after low our way.

[summer blizzard]

I don't agree I think we are well in with a chance, just about 83mm to go.

 

Interesting. Months like November 09 and a few summer months were far worse here in Yorkshire. While still wet i suspect the Pennines have been taking the excess before the fronts get here.

[damianslaw]

Keeping a low profile in the forum at the moment.. but yes I think many are looking forward to spring and hopefully much needed drier conditions. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a major flip take place to much drier conditions as we move into Spring and not necessarily a warm pattern. but this is very much hypothesing.

 

A dry spring with abundant sunshine is what much of the country needs, whether we get it remains to be seen. Naturally the PV wanes through spring and the increased energy from the sun aids evaporation, but with such a soaked ground it would take months of no rain to dry things out sufficiently which is never going to happen in this country. The absolute worse case scenario is a wet spring or even average spring rainfall wise followed by a wet summer which would be a terrible situation to be going into next autumn.

 

Interesting to note how other recent very wet mild winters i.e. 89/90, 94/95 and 04/05 were followed by preety dry March-August periods notably so in 1995 with  lots of very warm even hot conditions at times followed by preety cold and at times snowy winters.....

[summer blizzard]

Keeping a low profile in the forum at the moment.. but yes I think many are looking forward to spring and hopefully much needed drier conditions. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a major flip take place to much drier conditions as we move into Spring and not necessarily a warm pattern. but this is very much hypothesing.

 

A dry spring with abundant sunshine is what much of the country needs, whether we get it remains to be seen. Naturally the PV wanes through spring and the increased energy from the sun aids evaporation, but with such a soaked ground it would take months of no rain to dry things out sufficiently which is never going to happen in this country. The absolute worse case scenario is a wet spring or even average spring rainfall wise followed by a wet summer which would be a terrible situation to be going into next autumn.

 

Interesting to note how other recent very wet mild winters i.e. 89/90, 94/95 and 04/05 were followed by preety dry March-August periods notably so in 1995 with  lots of very warm even hot conditions at times followed by preety cold and at times snowy winters.....

 

Given most flooding has occurred in the south i don't think average rainfall would cause many problems given that the south of England has a pretty high evaporation rate in spring and summer (that is to say there sufficiently south to lose moisture quite quickly).

[cheese]

Interesting. Months like November 09 and a few summer months were far worse here in Yorkshire. While still wet i suspect the Pennines have been taking the excess before the fronts get here.

Yeah, not too wet here. Around 18mm so far this month compared to 51mm in Bingley. Big difference from west to east.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I've seen enough now to continue to predict long periods of a locked in pattern that will be difficult to shift. Thus I go for either a continuation of record rainfall such as 2012/early 2014, or very cold spring 2013, or very mild spring such as 2007/2011.

I don't see anything average occurring. No one predicted we would have the wettest winter on record so I think it is largely a guess as to how 2014 will pan out.

I have been predicting extreme weather online now for the last few years and unfortunately it keeps happening.

For the many on here that have decried the lack of anything wintry at lowland level this winter I empathise but from a purely personal level I am relieved as my wife had a newborn baby in January.

Fear not, we will get more very cold winters ahead and hopefully a lot of snow which I love.

My wish for spring 2014? I hope for a prolonged warm dry spring with a few light showers!

Edited February 8, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[summer blizzard]

I've seen enough now to continue to predict long periods of a locked in pattern that will be difficult to shift. Thus I go for either a continuation of record rainfall such as 2012/early 2014, or very cold spring 2013, or very mild spring such as 2007/2011.I don't see anything average occurring. No one predicted we would have the wettest winter on record so I think it is largely a guess as to how 2014 will pan out.I have been predicting extreme weather online now for the last few years and unfortunately it keeps happening.For the many on here that have decried the lack of anything wintry at lowland level this winter I empathise but from a purely personal level I am relieved as my wife had a newborn baby in January.Fear not, we will get more very cold winters ahead and hopefully a lot of snow which I love.My wish for spring 2014? I hope for a prolonged warm dry spring with a few light showers!

 

I'm not so sure.

 

One of the reasons i believe we've had such a strong zonal pattern is the persistence of the +QBO which is is still pretty strong. As this declines in tandem with continued neutral ENSO conditions i suspect the later half of spring especially could well be more normal. I do suspect though that the mid-Feb to Mid-March period will see greater mid to high latitude blocking before the mid-March to mid-April period sees pressure more commonly building to the south of us.

 

I suppose the main point here though is that i do suspect the taps will be turned off.

[Milhouse]

Looks like the familiar signs of early spring in the garden will arrive on time/rather early this year. With no cold in sight i wouldnt be suprised to see daffs out by the last week of Feb/first week of March. Would make a change to last years very delayed sightings.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks like the familiar signs of early spring in the garden will arrive on time/rather early this year. With no cold in sight i wouldnt be suprised to see daffs out by the last week of Feb/first week of March. Would make a change to last years very delayed sightings.

 

Would be interesting to see how nature reacts to normal growth followed by a spring freeze.

[Gray-Wolf]

Looks like the familiar signs of early spring in the garden will arrive on time/rather early this year. With no cold in sight i wouldnt be suprised to see daffs out by the last week of Feb/first week of March. Would make a change to last years very delayed sightings.

 

Have a look at the UK phenology site and you'll end up as surprised as i was at what is being reported on the ground!

 

http://www.naturescalendar.org.uk/research/phenology.htm

 

Seems even 2011 was well advanced on this years efforts? I could understand the frogspawn, seeing as it's the SW that sees the first spawn each year ( not many folk looking at their garden ponds down there eh?) but the rest of it? Snow drops?, Celendines?, Newts?.......

[NeilN]

I can see a cold/cool March (that month will wake us up lol), average April and a warmish May.

[The PIT]

First time I've known spring start at the 1st of December. Bar a few hours hiccup winter has been bypassed here.

I think the atlantic will finally run out steam leaving us high pressure feeding us early spring warmth leading to false hopes of a decent summer.

[summer blizzard]

Would be interesting to see how nature reacts to normal growth followed by a spring freeze.

 

Nature simply responds to soil temperature. If a sufficiently wrong freeze sends them below 5C it's plausible they'd die or at least stop growth, if it's a northerly or two then they'll carry on.

[damianslaw]

This thread has been very quiet over the last week, even though we are now much closer to meterologicaly start to Spring.

 

My hopes are for plenty of dry sunny conditions given just how wet things have been since October. What I wouldn't give for a high pressure settling things down for a few days...

 

Spring is our most fickle season, it always keeps you guessing and can change from one extreme to another in short space of time.

 

I do like my springs varied with showery cold northerly airstreams interspersed with high pressure settled spells and the occasional atlantic blast perhaps with a cold easterly thrown in at some stage.

 

Will be interesting to see what affect Atlantic SST's may have on things this Spring - there is a significant warm-cold--warm tripole over the north atlantic and this could maintain a very southerly tracking jet for some time yet.. Will northern blocking resurface I wonder?

 

Last Spring was an exceptionally late starter.. this one will certainly be very much earlier - with signs of spring in abundance already.. but we could easily see setbacks such as occurred in other Springs following on very mild winters - think April 1989, 1998.

[Milhouse]

Despite the mildish conditions of late it still seems unreal that we could potentially be just a month away from a settled and pleasantly warm spell. In recent years, March has often delivered such a spell.

[Summer Sun]

Despite the mildish conditions of late it still seems unreal that we could potentially be just a month away from a settled and pleasantly warm spell. In recent years, March has often delivered such a spell.

 

Indeed March 2012 instantly springs to mind