spring 2014 Spring 2014 Discussion

[damianslaw]

Indeed March 2012 instantly springs to mind

 

Indeed you couldn't get two contrasting Marches. March 2012 being more akin to a decent May, it was wonderfully sunny and warm. Remember the heat at the end of the month and thinking it felt like early summer. Switch forward to March 2013 and the end of the month was positively mid winter, with maxes barely getting above freezing and deep snow cover.. what a contrast.

 

Its also been quite awhile since we have experienced a notably very wet March.. but surely our quota of very wet months has run out now..

 

March in recent years has certainly delivered a mish mash of all sorts of conditions, from freezing snowy conditions to early summer heatwave conditions.

[hillbilly]

Strange how I have just seen the first snowdrops,thought they would be earlier than this,a few crocuses trying to flower but they do not like this rain,daffs starting to sproutbut a week or two off yet! Probably about what is average these last 10 years with the exception of last year and 2010!

[The PIT]

Snow drops have been out here for the last three weeks. The Budilier has come back into leaf as well a few weeks back. The last few weeks have slowed things down a bit as it has turned cooler however things should speed up as it's turning milder again. If it wasn't for that spring would be well on the way.

[Summer Sun]

Snow drops have been out here for the last three weeks. The Budilier has come back into leaf as well a few weeks back. The last few weeks have slowed things down a bit as it has turned cooler however things should speed up as it's turning milder again. If it wasn't for that spring would be well on the way.

 

I have 2 buddleia's here and both have had leaves on since April 2013 the Crocuses are popping out around the town now on the roundabouts

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I think we all deserve a nice dry Spring with warm sunshine to compensate for the dreadful conditions we've all had to endure since November!

[Snowynorth]

First time I've known spring start at the 1st of December. Bar a few hours hiccup winter has been bypassed here.

I think the atlantic will finally run out steam leaving us high pressure feeding us early spring warmth leading to false hopes of a decent summer.

i totally agree, I have done a little research on this and found that warm springs tend to produce weak summers ie colder and wetter. Vise versa if the spring is colder then the summer trends warmer. I think the solar decline will be apparent this summer and expect a similar pattern to 2009/10/11. This current pattern will change from mid march and i can only see the Azores high moving up and hence dry and warm. Cant see any easterlies forming.

[Jax]

If we can get a long dry spell that would be nice, even if it is benign without sun, dry is the key feature needed.

[shedhead]

One thing we know as a absolute certainty is nature always balances itself out, so there will be a significantly drier than average spell to come at some stage...the difficulty as always is knowing exactly when.

[summer blizzard]

i totally agree, I have done a little research on this and found that warm springs tend to produce weak summers ie colder and wetter. Vise versa if the spring is colder then the summer trends warmer. I think the solar decline will be apparent this summer and expect a similar pattern to 2009/10/11. This current pattern will change from mid march and i can only see the Azores high moving up and hence dry and warm. Cant see any easterlies forming.

 

Analysis has been done in the past and the correlation is extremely weak.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I reckon spring could be average, with warm spells from time to time. Summer, I do think could be pretty warm, such as 90's era. A different phase of weather seems to have taken hold altogether in my eyes. Perhaps a goodbye to the cold winters and cooler summers for a while?

[NorthYorksWeather]

Feels like Spring out there currently, 9c and feels warm out of the wind!

[cheese]

It's a shame next week looks so dull - would be nice to have more sunshine with mild temperatures. I'm actually not bothered about snow anymore - I just want spring.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Normally a dry spell is followed by a wet spell at some stage, but this doesn't necessarily mean "dry spring = washout summer".  The wet weather can hold off until early September (as in 1976 and 1995) or arrive in June and then fizzle out in July (as in 1990).

 

I recall that during March 2012, sunshine was variable rather than plentiful during the anticyclonic spells in the first two-thirds of the month, including one anticyclonic spell which started off with a dry sunny day, and I confidently predicted that the sunshine would continue while the Met Office was suggesting a cloudy high, and cloud developed the following night and the MetO turned out to be nearer the mark.  But the anticyclonic last third of the month was exceptionally sunny and warm with some unusual diurnal ranges- I remember a few days in coastal Tyneside that fell to 3C overnight and reached 20C during the day.

 

One problem that recurs on this forum (and elsewhere too, to be fair) is the automatic assumption that dry with high pressure equals warm and sunny.  There is a positive correlation in the summer half-year but it isn't a hard-and-fast rule even in the middle of summer, as was demonstrated in parts of eastern England during last year's June.  If we get an anticyclonic March, it could feature anything from southerly winds bringing frequent warm sunshine, to cool grey easterlies.

[stewfox]

Feels like Spring out there currently, 9c and feels warm out of the wind!

 

In need 

[BornFromTheVoid]

It seems likely that all 3 winter months will be at least 1 standard deviation above average for rainfall for the UK this winter. The last (and only other since 1910) winter to achieve this was 1994/1995...

[summer blizzard]

Normally a dry spell is followed by a wet spell at some stage, but this doesn't necessarily mean "dry spring = washout summer".  The wet weather can hold off until early September (as in 1976 and 1995) or arrive in June and then fizzle out in July (as in 1990).

 

I recall that during March 2012, sunshine was variable rather than plentiful during the anticyclonic spells in the first two-thirds of the month, including one anticyclonic spell which started off with a dry sunny day, and I confidently predicted that the sunshine would continue while the Met Office was suggesting a cloudy high, and cloud developed the following night and the MetO turned out to be nearer the mark.  But the anticyclonic last third of the month was exceptionally sunny and warm with some unusual diurnal ranges- I remember a few days in coastal Tyneside that fell to 3C overnight and reached 20C during the day.

 

One problem that recurs on this forum (and elsewhere too, to be fair) is the automatic assumption that dry with high pressure equals warm and sunny.  There is a positive correlation in the summer half-year but it isn't a hard-and-fast rule even in the middle of summer, as was demonstrated in parts of eastern England during last year's June.  If we get an anticyclonic March, it could feature anything from southerly winds bringing frequent warm sunshine, to cool grey easterlies.

 

Normally a dry spell is followed by a wet spell at some stage, but this doesn't necessarily mean "dry spring = washout summer".  The wet weather can hold off until early September (as in 1976 and 1995) or arrive in June and then fizzle out in July (as in 1990).

 

I recall that during March 2012, sunshine was variable rather than plentiful during the anticyclonic spells in the first two-thirds of the month, including one anticyclonic spell which started off with a dry sunny day, and I confidently predicted that the sunshine would continue while the Met Office was suggesting a cloudy high, and cloud developed the following night and the MetO turned out to be nearer the mark.  But the anticyclonic last third of the month was exceptionally sunny and warm with some unusual diurnal ranges- I remember a few days in coastal Tyneside that fell to 3C overnight and reached 20C during the day.

 

One problem that recurs on this forum (and elsewhere too, to be fair) is the automatic assumption that dry with high pressure equals warm and sunny.  There is a positive correlation in the summer half-year but it isn't a hard-and-fast rule even in the middle of summer, as was demonstrated in parts of eastern England during last year's June.  If we get an anticyclonic March, it could feature anything from southerly winds bringing frequent warm sunshine, to cool grey easterlies.

 

Here in Leeds we never had that problem in March 2012, as was expected with the synoptic and wind direction the worst we got was cloud breaking up around lunch time. It was incredible in terms of sunshine here.

[Frank Trough]

It seems likely that all 3 winter months will be at least 1 standard deviation above average for rainfall for the UK this winter. The last (and only other since 1910) winter to achieve this was 1994/1995...

 

i'd bank a repeat of spring/summer 1995 before you can say "pattern matching doesn't work"!

[summer blizzard]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

 

In the hopes of finding any hint at all for March i decided that since the QBO was still pretty positive in January to look at what happened in the March's following..

 

March 09 and 83 were the only matches since 1979.

 

6.4C and 7C is what was seen in those months.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I will predict we will be locked into low pressure for a while longer yet but when the change comes it w will be a marked one such as the swing from warm March 2012 to wet spring and summer, or cold spring 2013 to warm summer 2013. I cannot believe we will get a spring and summer like 2012 because that would break every wettest record in the book. April 2011 repeat of?

I could cope with a 2011 spring and subsequent drought (Mids) and I'd give my hind teeth for a repeat of summer 2013. If the summer of 2012 or similar happens I will be emigrating!

Apologies if this question has been asked but when was the last very wet winter followed by warm, dry spring?

Edited February 18, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Summer Sun]

The next 3 days (today included) will turn quite mild across many areas of England and Wales I wouldn't rule out somewhere hitting 13c in the south by Thursday thought its likely to be wet and winder for a time, today and tomorrow could feel quite spring like at times with temperatures in double figures and some sunny intervals

 

Here in Darlo this morning we have wall to wall sunshine and no wind if this lasts into the afternoon would should get into double figures

[Frank Trough]

Top ten wettest winters:

 

423.0 1914-15420.9 1989-90418.3 1876-77415.6 1994-95388.3 1993-94380.6 1868-69374.3 1959-60373.5 1915-16363.0 1965-66362.0 1936-37

 

of the more recent ones of those 89/90 produced a nice summer (mixed spring), 94/95 was also followed by a nice spring and summer while 93/94 had an indifferent (and still wet) spring but a decent June and July.

 

I know it probably doesn't mean anything but it's fun anyway. There was a good post on here a while ago (and I forget which thread and poster so apologies) who showed how rarely (in recent times) a cold February has followed a mild and wet December and January. As I say, it's interesting......and let's face it, I am desperately searching for any tenuous hopes of something drier to look forward to!

[Gray-Wolf]

Im still going with the Jet slowly easing north and the storms with it ( and the band of disturbed/churned water across the Atlantic that shows the cooler anoms) as we move into spring. sorry north of Scotland but you are going to be the wettest, windiest part of the UK.

 

As the cooler waters shift north the influence of the ocean will mean a nice spring with the normal quota of sunshine and showers as the decreasing storms pass to our north. Heck we might even see pressure rise from the south as the Azores and med highs join to bring settled westerly conditions.

 

The biggest up side of the storms pushing north will be the long reach Southerlies/S Westerlies that they will drag along with them.

 

With Nino now looking to set in from may now the run into Summer might turn interesting?

[cheeky_monkey]

Top ten wettest winters:

 

423.0 1914-15420.9 1989-90418.3 1876-77415.6 1994-95388.3 1993-94380.6 1868-69374.3 1959-60373.5 1915-16363.0 1965-66362.0 1936-37

 

of the more recent ones of those 89/90 produced a nice summer (mixed spring), 94/95 was also followed by a nice spring and summer while 93/94 had an indifferent (and still wet) spring but a decent June and July.

 

I know it probably doesn't mean anything but it's fun anyway. There was a good post on here a while ago (and I forget which thread and poster so apologies) who showed how rarely (in recent times) a cold February has followed a mild and wet December and January. As I say, it's interesting......and let's face it, I am desperately searching for any tenuous hopes of something drier to look forward to!

Interesting stat regarding 1989/90 winter rainfall..i dont remember this winter being wet..in fact i remember being realtively dry and mild and windy...the reason for this i remember playing on football pitches that were bone dry during February and March and wearing moulded studs which i only ever wore at the start and very end of the football season...May 1990 was a glorious very sunny warm month possibly the best May i can remember!

[Methuselah]

It's bound to be better than last year's pile of poo...

[Summer Sun]

The next 3 days (today included) will turn quite mild across many areas of England and Wales I wouldn't rule out somewhere hitting 13c in the south by Thursday thought its likely to be wet and winder for a time, today and tomorrow could feel quite spring like at times with temperatures in double figures and some sunny intervals

 

Looks like the 13c will be hit today in the London area if the beebs forecast after the 10pm news last night is correct not bad for late February when you consider the average high for this time of year in London is around 7c