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The Sun has "gone to sleep"


Gaz1985

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Dr Jennifer Francis is a long way from being a crank.

 

Jennifer Francis earned a B.S. in Meteorology from San Jose State University in 1988 and a PhD in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of Washington in 1994. As a professor at Rutgers University since 1994, she taught courses in satellite remote sensing and climate-change issues, and also co-founded and co-directed the Rutgers Climate and Environmental Change Initiative. Presently she is a Research Professor with the Rutgers Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences and studies Arctic climate change and Arctic-global climate linkages with ~40 peer-reviewed publications on these topics. During the 13 months from July 2009-July 2010, her family of four spent a year sailing through Central America. She and her husband circumnavigated the world in a sailboat from 1980-1985, including Cape Horn and the Arctic, which is when she first became interested in Arctic weather and climate.

 

I was being factious knocker, he sounds a quite a character.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Is a mini ice age on the way? Scientists warn the Sun has 'gone to sleep' and say it could cause temperatures to plunge

  • 2013 was due to be year of the 'solar maximum'
  • Researchers say solar activity is at a fraction of what they expect
  • Conditions 'very similar' a time in 1645 when a mini ice age hit 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2541599/Is-mini-ice-age-way-Scientists-warn-Sun-gone-sleep-say-cause-temperatures-plunge.html#addComment

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

From the BBC

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25743806

 

 

2013 was the year of solar maximum.

 

There were many predictions for solar cycle 24, covering pretty much every possibility. Svalgaard and Cliver predicted a low cycle in 2005 based on the polar field strength at solar min. They have used this technique successfully since 1978, but we will have to wait a couple of years before a prediction is made for SC25. 

 

Meanwhile, there does appear to be a secular change in long term activity as well, most notably observed in what is known informally as the Livingston and Penn effect.

 

Posted Image

 

Note the trend line has flattened somewhat, but this is a consequence of spots disappearing below the 1500 gauss threshold for sunspot formation. The secular reduction in the magnetic strength of sunspots can be seen more clearly here (hopefully this graph will be updated soon):

 

Posted Image

 

 

So what are the consequences for climate here? The source of these charts himself (Svalgaard) thinks not a lot. I've no idea, but the idea of a mini ice age seems far-fetched to me. We'll get an idea over the next few decades I suppose.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Looks like Daily fail has latched on to this story, This comment made me chuckle a bit 'I've been a solar physicist for 30 years, and I've never seen anything like this.'  anyway...

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2541599/Is-mini-ice-age-way-Scientists-warn-Sun-gone-sleep-say-cause-temperatures-plunge.html#ixzz2qqGYw6uA 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Note the three key points as far as the effect on climate goes according to Mike Lockwood,

  • There is a 10 to 20% chance that the sun will be in Maunder Minimum conditions by 2054 or so. Conversely, there is presumably an 80 to 90% chance that it won't.
  • Even if it is, it will only take five years or so for temperatures to get to where they would have been without the lull in the sun.
  • If the sun changes as suggested it may affect the jet stream, bringing cold snaps during the northern hemisphere winters.
Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I have been somewhat intrigued by the term, Global warmists, for some time as I seem to be labelled as such. So the urban definition.

 

Global Warmists

 

To be defined as a global warmist, a person must have all of the following traits:1) An absolute belief that humans are primarily or even completely responsible for causing a mass climate change which will raise the average temperature of the planet.2) Will not entertain the idea that it is possible that natural phenomena may cause climate change, regardless of any evidence.3) Believes it is a good thing to throw billions upon billions of dollars at an idea that may or may not work to stop climate change, "just in case."4) Believes that natural disasters such as hurricanes and earthquakes are an indirect result of humankind's actions to cause climate change. ( contradiction in terms. my addition)5) Shouts down, puts down, and insults anyone whose beliefs run contrary to their own, rather than having intelligent discourse. A zealot for their cause.

 

Apart from the fact the highlighted bits are incorrect no 5 is the most succinct summation of the denier/skeptic position I've seen since I saw it in action yesterday.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Note the three key points as far as the effect on climate goes according to Mike Lockwood,

[*]There is a 10 to 20% chance that the sun will be in Maunder Minimum conditions by 2054 or so. Conversely, there is presumably an 80 to 90% chance that it won't.

[*]Even if it is, it will only take five years or so for temperatures to get to where they would have been without the lull in the sun.

[*]If the sun changes as suggested it may affect the jet stream, bringing cold snaps during the northern hemisphere winters.

I would dispute any such claims as all of us are simply guessing, we could just as easily see a MM making such a sceniro a 80-90% certainty. Remember all this talk of starting points being warmer now then back then is nonsense, just look at what happened during December 2010, so on that basis anything is possible even the sun waking up from its slumber unexpectedly cannot be ruled out.
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

I would dispute any such claims as all of us are simply guessing, we could just as easily see a MM making such a sceniro a 80-90% certainty. Remember all this talk of starting points being warmer now then back then is nonsense, just look at what happened during December 2010, so on that basis anything is possible even the sun waking up from its slumber unexpectedly cannot be ruled out.

 

We are at a warmer starting point though. SSTs are warmer, the air is warmer, the Arctic is much warmer, the ice further north, etc., all important for winter cold. The coldest months on the CET record weren't the absolute coldest possible though, in fact, taking the daily mean record lows for December gives a pretty chilly average of -6.1C, quite a distance from the -0.8C in 1890.

 

Being at a warmer starting point doesn't mean we can't record record cold months, but it does make the job a bit tougher.

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

We are at a warmer starting point though. SSTs are warmer, the air is warmer, the Arctic is much warmer, the ice further north, etc., all important for winter cold. The coldest months on the CET record weren't the absolute coldest possible thogh, in fact, taking the daily mean record lows for December gives a pretty chilly average of -6.1C, quite a distance from the -0.8C in 1890. Being at a warmer starting point doesn't mean we can't record record cold months, but it does make the job a bit tougher.

Agreed and that was my point, we may have a higher starting point but nothing can be ruled out and I wouldn't rule out the sun suddenly cranking up again.
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

 

Note the three key points as far as the effect on climate goes according to Mike Lockwood,

  • There is a 10 to 20% chance that the sun will be in Maunder Minimum conditions by 2054 or so. Conversely, there is presumably an 80 to 90% chance that it won't.
  • Even if it is, it will only take five years or so for temperatures to get to where they would have been without the lull in the sun.
  • If the sun changes as suggested it may affect the jet stream, bringing cold snaps during the northern hemisphere winters.

 

 

 

Don't know how those percentages are arrived at, to be honest. If it were the case that we observe similar declines in the paleo record and Maunder-type minimums follow approx 10-20% of the time then I would have confidence in such a statement. I suspect these lulls are just a "normal" part of Sol's behaviour.

 

As for the jet stream modification, I'm pretty sceptical of the many claimed effects on the Earth's climate. I remember on the "Wonders of the Solar System" a correlation was shown between solar activity and the flow of the Parana river. The correlation looks good, but what about all the other river basin systems in the world? Given the regular 11-year cycle, it's probably possible to find quite a few systems in nature which share it, but then you would be ignoring the countless millions that don't.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Don't know how those percentages are arrived at, to be honest. If it were the case that we observe similar declines in the paleo record and Maunder-type minimums follow approx 10-20% of the time then I would have confidence in such a statement. I suspect these lulls are just a "normal" part of Sol's behaviour.

 

As for the jet stream modification, I'm pretty sceptical of the many claimed effects on the Earth's climate. I remember on the "Wonders of the Solar System" a correlation was shown between solar activity and the flow of the Parana river. The correlation looks good, but what about all the other river basin systems in the world? Given the regular 11-year cycle, it's probably possible to find quite a few systems in nature which share it, but then you would be ignoring the countless millions that don't.

 

The link seems related to variations in UV output, which is much more variable than TSI. Paper on it here http://yly-mac.gps.caltech.edu/z_temp/4%20soozen/zjunk/solar%20cycle%20master%20/Ineson2011%20*%20.pdf

 

BBC artcile on it http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15199065

 

The mechanism suggested by the paper is

 

The observed response to decreasing solar ultraviolet irradiance
begins in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere, where
satellite observations and ERA-40 reanalysis show a decrease in
temperature of 1-2 K from the solar maximum to solar minimum1.
This temperature change is directly attributable to the decrease
in ozone heating associated with ultraviolet irradiance, which
is important at these levels11. This signal peaks in the tropics
and corresponds to a relative decrease in the pole-to-equator
temperature gradient. This response is reproduced in our model
(Supplementary Fig. S1) with significant cooling of about 2 K near
the tropical stratopause. Geostrophic balance requires that the
diminished polewards temperature gradient is matched by a weak
easterly wind anomaly in the subtropical zonal mean circulation
in the upper stratosphere. This anomaly has been observed to
propagate polewards and downwards during autumn and winter
and to amplify as it does so, giving a mid-stratospheric easterly
shift of 510ms-1 and a weaker polar vortex in December
January at the solar minimum3,4.
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

 

The link seems related to variations in UV output, which is much more variable than TSI. Paper on it here http://yly-mac.gps.caltech.edu/z_temp/4%20soozen/zjunk/solar%20cycle%20master%20/Ineson2011%20*%20.pdf

 

BBC artcile on it http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15199065

 

The mechanism suggested by the paper is

 

The observed response to decreasing solar ultraviolet irradiance
begins in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere, where
satellite observations and ERA-40 reanalysis show a decrease in
temperature of 1-2 K from the solar maximum to solar minimum1.
This temperature change is directly attributable to the decrease
in ozone heating associated with ultraviolet irradiance, which
is important at these levels11. This signal peaks in the tropics
and corresponds to a relative decrease in the pole-to-equator
temperature gradient. This response is reproduced in our model
(Supplementary Fig. S1) with significant cooling of about 2 K near
the tropical stratopause. Geostrophic balance requires that the
diminished polewards temperature gradient is matched by a weak
easterly wind anomaly in the subtropical zonal mean circulation
in the upper stratosphere. This anomaly has been observed to
propagate polewards and downwards during autumn and winter
and to amplify as it does so, giving a mid-stratospheric easterly
shift of 510ms-1 and a weaker polar vortex in December
January at the solar minimum3,4.

 

 

Thanks, will read this later. It's good to find stuff not stuck behind paywalls.

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

Thanks, will read this later. It's good to find stuff not stuck behind paywalls.

 

Hi Yarmy

 

This link will provide interesting reading as well

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/128

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

 

The link seems related to variations in UV output, which is much more variable than TSI. Paper on it here http://yly-mac.gps.caltech.edu/z_temp/4%20soozen/zjunk/solar%20cycle%20master%20/Ineson2011%20*%20.pdf

 

BBC artcile on it http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15199065

 

The mechanism suggested by the paper is

 

The observed response to decreasing solar ultraviolet irradiance
begins in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere, where
satellite observations and ERA-40 reanalysis show a decrease in
temperature of 1-2 K from the solar maximum to solar minimum1.
This temperature change is directly attributable to the decrease
in ozone heating associated with ultraviolet irradiance, which
is important at these levels11. This signal peaks in the tropics
and corresponds to a relative decrease in the pole-to-equator
temperature gradient. This response is reproduced in our model
(Supplementary Fig. S1) with significant cooling of about 2 K near
the tropical stratopause. Geostrophic balance requires that the
diminished polewards temperature gradient is matched by a weak
easterly wind anomaly in the subtropical zonal mean circulation
in the upper stratosphere. This anomaly has been observed to
propagate polewards and downwards during autumn and winter
and to amplify as it does so, giving a mid-stratospheric easterly
shift of 510ms-1 and a weaker polar vortex in December
January at the solar minimum3,4.

 

 

 

Right, read it and it was very interesting. It would be good to see similar results produced by other teams using different climate models. Meanwhile, perhaps a little amateur project is to eyeball the NH reanalysis charts during solar min/max years to see if there's any noticeable difference in the blocking/PV strength.  

Edited by Yarmy
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Right, read it and it was very interesting. It would be good to see similar results produced by other teams using different climate models. Meanwhile, perhaps a little amateur project is to eyeball the NH reanalysis charts during solar min/max years to see if there's any noticeable difference in the blocking/PV strength.  

 

It also suggests an effect on the AO/NAO, so we can look at that aspect too.

 

The correlations between them yields no statistically strong result (0.11 and 0.06 respectively, from 1950 to 2012). If we isolate the years with the sunspot average below 30, (1953,1954, 1963-1965, 1975-1977, 1985-1987, 1994-1997 and 2005-2010) we get -0.63 for the average Dec/Jan AO and -0.22 for the NAO. If we exclude the recent minimum, where sea ice loss may have had an influence, then the averages are -0.71 and -0.23.

 

That very simplified look would support the idea that low sunpot periods (and perhaps low UV) do tend produce more -ve AO/NAO Decembers and Januaries.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Climatic Effects of a Solar Minimum: Grand Solar Minimum and Climate Response Recorded for First Time in Same Climate Archive

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/05/120506160119.htm

 

Study sheds new light on how the Sun affects the Earth's climate

 

The Sun's activity has recently affected the Earth's atmosphere and climate in unexpected ways, according to a new study published today in the journal Nature. The study, by researchers from Imperial College London and the University of Colorado, shows that a decline in the Sun's activity does not always mean that the Earth becomes cooler.

 

http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/newsandeventspggrp/imperialcollege/newssummary/news_7-10-2010-11-45-24

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

Climatic Effects of a Solar Minimum: Grand Solar Minimum and Climate Response Recorded for First Time in Same Climate Archive

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/05/120506160119.htm

 

Study sheds new light on how the Sun affects the Earth's climate

 

http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/newsandeventspggrp/imperialcollege/newssummary/news_7-10-2010-11-45-24

 

 

It also says this

 

We cannot jump to any conclusions based on what we have found during this comparatively short period and we need to carry out further studies to explore the Sun's activity, and the patterns that we have uncovered, on longer timescales.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Tibetan Hockey-sticks (with solar vibrations?)

 

A new temperature reconstruction of the last millennium, published by Zhang et al for open review in Climate of the Past Discussions, has a pronounced hockey-stick shape. The authors construct a 1300-year long ring-width chronology from juniper trees in the Qilian mountains on the northern flank of the Tibetan plateau.

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