E.N.S.O. Discussion

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 27/07/2022 at 18:20, cheeky_monkey said:

not often you get back to back to back La Ninas so will be interesting to see how things pan out

@summer blizzarddo you have any info on b2b La Ninas on the second nina winters? Would be interesting to see whether the dice load in favour of UK cold.

[summer blizzard]

54 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

@summer blizzarddo you have any info on b2b La Ninas on the second nina winters? Would be interesting to see whether the dice load in favour of UK cold.

Since 1950 only the winter of 1975/1976 made it through to March. 2000/2001 is our second closest match since it made it to February.

Honourable mentions go to 1956/1957 if we head warm neutral by end of winter and 1985/1986 which was a weak/cold neutral episode through the 1983-1986 period.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

28 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Since 1950 only the winter of 1975/1976 made it through to March. 2000/2001 is our second closest match since it made it to February.

Honourable mentions go to 1956/1957 if we head warm neutral by end of winter and 1985/1986 which was a weak/cold neutral episode through the 1983-1986 period.

 

Don't know much about the others but I remember 2000/2001 being quite cold? There was a decent snowfall in the week between Christmas and New Year.

Funnily enough, I just checked and Dec 1975 had an attempted retrogressive spell during that same week as 2000

Something to watch this year maybe?

Edited July 29, 2022 by CreweCold

[Don]

12 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Don't know much about the others but I remember 2000/2001 being quite cold? There was a decent snowfall in the week between Christmas and New Year.

Funnily enough, I just checked and Dec 1975 had an attempted retrogressive spell during that same week as 2000

Something to watch this year maybe?

Winter 2000/01 was decent for the Midlands northwards and particularly Scotland.  It was nothing special for the south but ok after the largely snowless 1997-2000 period and I did receive a covering of snow early on 28th December.  I remember John Kettley forecasting a big freeze for the beginning of February but it turned out to be a 'near miss', although northern Scotland and the Shetlands got in on the act!  I think Scandinavia was very cold that winter, too, so the potential for a cold or very cold UK winter was there but never quite made it.

Edited July 30, 2022 by Don

[summer blizzard]

Impressively we are almost down to having -1.5 anomolies down to a depth of 200m from the surface. Also note how this trade burst has completely destroyed the warm anomolies in the east which are rapidly melting away.

 

[damianslaw]

On 30/07/2022 at 12:46, Don said:

Winter 2000/01 was decent for the Midlands northwards and particularly Scotland.  It was nothing special for the south but ok after the largely snowless 1997-2000 period and I did receive a covering of snow early on 28th December.  I remember John Kettley forecasting a big freeze for the beginning of February but it turned out to be a 'near miss', although northern Scotland and the Shetlands got in on the act!  I think Scandinavia was very cold that winter, too, so the potential for a cold or very cold UK winter was there but never quite made it.

Winter 00-01 was episodic, much of December was mild, but after christmas it was generally a cold winter, the cold persisted well into March. It reminded me somewhat of winter 20-21 and to an extent 17-18.

Edited August 1, 2022 by damianslaw

[Don]

7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Winter 00-01 was episodic, much of December was mild, but after christmas it was generally a cold winter, the cold persisted well into March. It reminded me somewhat of winter 20-21.

Yes, I suppose there were similarities to 2020/21, with the Midlands northwards generally doing well with snow.  However, 2000/01 was a bit colder and lasted longer, well into March as you say.  Although, the cold did return in April last year, with May also cold!

Edited August 1, 2022 by Don

[damianslaw]

8 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, I suppose there were similarities to 2020/21, with the Midlands northwards generally doing well with snow.  However, 2000/01 was a bit colder and lasted longer, well into March as you say.  Although, the cold did return in April last year, with May also cold!

Yes the colder conditions came at different times, but overall balanced out to give very similiar year overall I feel. Also came after two very mild winters 98-99 and 99-00. 

[northwestsnow]

Another Nina looks odds on for Winter.

ECMWF August update looks poor for Nov/Dec for coldies !

Early days however !

[Don]

12 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Another Nina looks odds on for Winter.

ECMWF August update looks poor for Nov/Dec for coldies !

Early days however !

It was looking ok last month, so that's bad news!

[damianslaw]

16 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Another Nina looks odds on for Winter.

ECMWF August update looks poor for Nov/Dec for coldies !

Early days however !

How many con current years of la nina have occurred in the past. What is it suggesting. Seem to recall last Nov went bust talk of early cold materialising on northerlies. Thought la nina increases chance of cold early season. Mind the reality of last winter made a mockery of all teleconnections. The persistent block of Jan being an omen that the atmosphere once again not playing ball as expected. 

[SqueakheartLW]

These are based on any 3rd successive year of either La Nina's in a row or a 3rd year of at least ENSO Neutral on the colder side or colder with no break away from this at any stage.

3rd year La Nina's or ENSO Neutral Colder side with CET's and anomalies to average at the time

                       November          December           January               February              March               
1871/72        3.40C (-2.29C)    3.60C (-0.13C)     5.00C (+1.48C)    6.90C (+2.43C)    6.80C (+1.69C)
1893/94        5.20C (-1.06C)    4.80C (+0.83C)    3.40C (-0.09C)     5.10C (+1.22C)    6.70C (+1.59C)
1908/09        7.40C (+1.22C)   3.90C (-0.61C)     3.50C (-0.20C)     2.90C (-1.18C)     3.70C (-1.61C)
1922/23        5.90C (-0.31C)    5.80C (+1.04C)    5.60C (+1.39C)    5.60C (+1.26C)    6.50C (+0.80C)
1934/35        6.10C (-0.29C)    8.10C (+3.46C)    4.50C (+0.56C)    5.80C (+1.63C)    6.60C (+0.68C)
1956/57        6.00C (-0.56C)    5.70C (+1.28C)    5.50C (+2.18C)    5.30C (+1.68C)    9.20C (+3.51C)
1975/76        6.30C (-0.25C)    5.30C (+0.65C)    5.90C (+2.09C)    4.50C (+0.74C)    4.80C (-0.88C)
1985/86        4.10C (-2.77C)    6.30C (+1.24C)    3.50C (-0.70C)    -1.10C (-5.34C)    4.90C (-1.37C)
2000/01        7.00C (-0.14C)    5.80C (+1.17C)    3.20C (-1.46C)    4.40C (-0.49C)     5.20C (-1.54C)
                       November        December          January             February             March                 
AVERAGE      5.71C (-0.72C)   5.48C (+0.99C)   4.46C (+0.58C)  4.38C (+0.22C)    6.04C (+0.32C)

Looking at the above this isn't a great signal for a colder than average November to March period with the vast majority of months here with above average temperatures. November has the best chance of cold with 3rd year La Nina or at least 3 years in a row of ENSO Neutral Colder side or colder. There are however a few exceptions with some of the months.

Now if I factor in where we are in the solar cycle which is in the ascending phase or approaching maximum we narrow it down to these years

                       November          December           January               February              March               
1934/35        6.10C (-0.29C)    8.10C (+3.46C)    4.50C (+0.56C)    5.80C (+1.63C)    6.60C (+0.68C)
1956/57        6.00C (-0.56C)    5.70C (+1.28C)    5.50C (+2.18C)    5.30C (+1.68C)    9.20C (+3.51C)
2000/01        7.00C (-0.14C)    5.80C (+1.17C)    3.20C (-1.46C)     4.40C (-0.49C)     5.20C (-1.54C)
                       November        December          January             February             March                 
AVERAGE      6.37C (-0.33C)   6.53C (+1.97C)   4.40C (+0.43C)  5.17C (+0.94C)    7.00C (+0.88C)

Either way things are not looking good if you are a coldie based on the combination of 3rd year La Nina/ENSO Neutral Colder combined with late ascending solar cycle phase so 2 factors already against us here if you want cold. Maybe not a bad thing if you factor in the energy prices this winter however. With an expected WQBO as well then there's another thing against cold too.

Watch winter 2022/23 now be the coldest winter of the century so far, beating 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2012/13 for cold now I have shown factors against cold here.

[Don]

15 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

These are based on any 3rd successive year of either La Nina's in a row or a 3rd year of at least ENSO Neutral on the colder side or colder with no break away from this at any stage.

3rd year La Nina's or ENSO Neutral Colder side with CET's and anomalies to average at the time

                       November          December           January               February              March               
1871/72        3.40C (-2.29C)    3.60C (-0.13C)     5.00C (+1.48C)    6.90C (+2.43C)    6.80C (+1.69C)
1893/94        5.20C (-1.06C)    4.80C (+0.83C)    3.40C (-0.09C)     5.10C (+1.22C)    6.70C (+1.59C)
1908/09        7.40C (+1.22C)   3.90C (-0.61C)     3.50C (-0.20C)     2.90C (-1.18C)     3.70C (-1.61C)
1922/23        5.90C (-0.31C)    5.80C (+1.04C)    5.60C (+1.39C)    5.60C (+1.26C)    6.50C (+0.80C)
1934/35        6.10C (-0.29C)    8.10C (+3.46C)    4.50C (+0.56C)    5.80C (+1.63C)    6.60C (+0.68C)
1956/57        6.00C (-0.56C)    5.70C (+1.28C)    5.50C (+2.18C)    5.30C (+1.68C)    9.20C (+3.51C)
1975/76        6.30C (-0.25C)    5.30C (+0.65C)    5.90C (+2.09C)    4.50C (+0.74C)    4.80C (-0.88C)
1985/86        4.10C (-2.77C)    6.30C (+1.24C)    3.50C (-0.70C)    -1.10C (-5.34C)    4.90C (-1.37C)
2000/01        7.00C (-0.14C)    5.80C (+1.17C)    3.20C (-1.46C)    4.40C (-0.49C)     5.20C (-1.54C)
                       November        December          January             February             March                 
AVERAGE      5.71C (-0.72C)   5.48C (+0.99C)   4.46C (+0.58C)  4.38C (+0.22C)    6.04C (+0.32C)

Looking at the above this isn't a great signal for a colder than average November to March period with the vast majority of months here with above average temperatures. November has the best chance of cold with 3rd year La Nina or at least 3 years in a row of ENSO Neutral Colder side or colder. There are however a few exceptions with some of the months.

Now if I factor in where we are in the solar cycle which is in the ascending phase or approaching maximum we narrow it down to these years

                       November          December           January               February              March               
1934/35        6.10C (-0.29C)    8.10C (+3.46C)    4.50C (+0.56C)    5.80C (+1.63C)    6.60C (+0.68C)
1956/57        6.00C (-0.56C)    5.70C (+1.28C)    5.50C (+2.18C)    5.30C (+1.68C)    9.20C (+3.51C)
2000/01        7.00C (-0.14C)    5.80C (+1.17C)    3.20C (-1.46C)     4.40C (-0.49C)     5.20C (-1.54C)
                       November        December          January             February             March                 
AVERAGE      6.37C (-0.33C)   6.53C (+1.97C)   4.40C (+0.43C)  5.17C (+0.94C)    7.00C (+0.88C)

Either way things are not looking good if you are a coldie based on the combination of 3rd year La Nina/ENSO Neutral Colder combined with late ascending solar cycle phase so 2 factors already against us here if you want cold. Maybe not a bad thing if you factor in the energy prices this winter however. With an expected WQBO as well then there's another thing against cold too.

Watch winter 2022/23 now be the coldest winter of the century so far, beating 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2012/13 for cold now I have shown factors against cold here.

I did feel cautiously optimistic for the coming winter, but after how summer has turned out and the above statistics, I'm not so now.  However, who knows these days?!

[StretfordEnd1996]

On 07/08/2022 at 18:55, SqueakheartLW said:

These are based on any 3rd successive year of either La Nina's in a row or a 3rd year of at least ENSO Neutral on the colder side or colder with no break away from this at any stage.

3rd year La Nina's or ENSO Neutral Colder side with CET's and anomalies to average at the time

                       November          December           January               February              March               
1871/72        3.40C (-2.29C)    3.60C (-0.13C)     5.00C (+1.48C)    6.90C (+2.43C)    6.80C (+1.69C)
1893/94        5.20C (-1.06C)    4.80C (+0.83C)    3.40C (-0.09C)     5.10C (+1.22C)    6.70C (+1.59C)
1908/09        7.40C (+1.22C)   3.90C (-0.61C)     3.50C (-0.20C)     2.90C (-1.18C)     3.70C (-1.61C)
1922/23        5.90C (-0.31C)    5.80C (+1.04C)    5.60C (+1.39C)    5.60C (+1.26C)    6.50C (+0.80C)
1934/35        6.10C (-0.29C)    8.10C (+3.46C)    4.50C (+0.56C)    5.80C (+1.63C)    6.60C (+0.68C)
1956/57        6.00C (-0.56C)    5.70C (+1.28C)    5.50C (+2.18C)    5.30C (+1.68C)    9.20C (+3.51C)
1975/76        6.30C (-0.25C)    5.30C (+0.65C)    5.90C (+2.09C)    4.50C (+0.74C)    4.80C (-0.88C)
1985/86        4.10C (-2.77C)    6.30C (+1.24C)    3.50C (-0.70C)    -1.10C (-5.34C)    4.90C (-1.37C)
2000/01        7.00C (-0.14C)    5.80C (+1.17C)    3.20C (-1.46C)    4.40C (-0.49C)     5.20C (-1.54C)
                       November        December          January             February             March                 
AVERAGE      5.71C (-0.72C)   5.48C (+0.99C)   4.46C (+0.58C)  4.38C (+0.22C)    6.04C (+0.32C)

Looking at the above this isn't a great signal for a colder than average November to March period with the vast majority of months here with above average temperatures. November has the best chance of cold with 3rd year La Nina or at least 3 years in a row of ENSO Neutral Colder side or colder. There are however a few exceptions with some of the months.

Now if I factor in where we are in the solar cycle which is in the ascending phase or approaching maximum we narrow it down to these years

                       November          December           January               February              March               
1934/35        6.10C (-0.29C)    8.10C (+3.46C)    4.50C (+0.56C)    5.80C (+1.63C)    6.60C (+0.68C)
1956/57        6.00C (-0.56C)    5.70C (+1.28C)    5.50C (+2.18C)    5.30C (+1.68C)    9.20C (+3.51C)
2000/01        7.00C (-0.14C)    5.80C (+1.17C)    3.20C (-1.46C)     4.40C (-0.49C)     5.20C (-1.54C)
                       November        December          January             February             March                 
AVERAGE      6.37C (-0.33C)   6.53C (+1.97C)   4.40C (+0.43C)  5.17C (+0.94C)    7.00C (+0.88C)

Either way things are not looking good if you are a coldie based on the combination of 3rd year La Nina/ENSO Neutral Colder combined with late ascending solar cycle phase so 2 factors already against us here if you want cold. Maybe not a bad thing if you factor in the energy prices this winter however. With an expected WQBO as well then there's another thing against cold too.

Watch winter 2022/23 now be the coldest winter of the century so far, beating 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2012/13 for cold now I have shown factors against cold here.

Thanks very much for this informative post. I did post something similar a few months back further up the forum but mine was just a bit of an 'unofficial' quick desktop survey. There's an interesting run of consistent Novembers in there..

If you don't mind me asking. Is there anywhere I can get this Nino information from re. Nino episodes prior to 1950 - 1950 and after are easy to find online but I take it you may know somewhere that has this information. 

[summer blizzard]

MEI dropped to -2.2, second lowest since 1979. Lowest for July since 2010.

Edited August 10, 2022 by summer blizzard

[virtualsphere]

Dug out this analysis I did a couple of years back, La Nina is not necessarily bad if it's a colder winter you're after, its the strong El Nino event that you probably don't want to see.  This doesn't take into account the longevity of the Nina though.

 @StretfordEnd1996There's some other data sources here https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/nino-sst-indices-nino-12-3-34-4-oni-and-tni and back to 1870 here https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino34.long.data 

   

[StretfordEnd1996]

8 minutes ago, virtualsphere said:

Dug out this analysis I did a couple of years back, La Nina is not necessarily bad if it's a colder winter you're after, its the strong El Nino event that you probably don't want to see.  This doesn't take into account the longevity of the Nina though.

 @StretfordEnd1996There's some other data sources here https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/nino-sst-indices-nino-12-3-34-4-oni-and-tni and back to 1870 here https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino34.long.data 

   

Thanks for this sphere, much appreciated 

[summer blizzard]

20JUL2022: Nino3: -0.4 , Nino3.4: -0.7 , Nino4: -1.0

27JUL2022: Nino3: -0.4 , Nino3.4: -0.7 , Nino4: -0.9

03AUG2022: Nino3: -0.5 , Nino3.4: -1.0 , Nino4: -1.0

10AUG2022: Nino3: -0.5 , Nino3.4: -1.1 , Nino4: -1.0

Back at moderate. 

[SqueakheartLW]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

20JUL2022: Nino3: -0.4 , Nino3.4: -0.7 , Nino4: -1.0

27JUL2022: Nino3: -0.4 , Nino3.4: -0.7 , Nino4: -0.9

03AUG2022: Nino3: -0.5 , Nino3.4: -1.0 , Nino4: -1.0

10AUG2022: Nino3: -0.5 , Nino3.4: -1.1 , Nino4: -1.0

Back at moderate. 

Definitely looking like a 3rd year nina then

[sebastiaan1973]

Do we get a CP La Nina this winter? 

The forecast for this winter 500 hPa isn't looking that bad.

[SqueakheartLW]

On 17/08/2022 at 08:39, sebastiaan1973 said:

Do we get a CP La Nina this winter? 

The forecast for this winter 500 hPa isn't looking that bad.

If you want the drought to end then this isn't what you would want to see with most going for above average heights near or over the UK

None of these look especially cold with the lack of a Euro trough on any of them to support the blocking features to get the cold in

NCEP could be the best bet for a Scandi high setup with the trough out west throwing fronts into the cold block

CMCC, JMA and Meteo-FR probably have a chance to get northerly sourced cold in at times.

DWD, ECCC and ECMWF are just a borefest high pressure fest setup, got enough of a borefest last winter for weeks on end, no thank you

UKMO the most zonal of the charts but with this angle of the ridge and trough then cold zonality looks like it could feature quite a bit with occasional mild W or SW winds mixed in with Arctic blasts, very much a 1998/99 chart.

 

As for the La Nina, it is currently a mixed (basin wide) event and looks like according to CFS we will slowly progress to more of an EP event as we go along with moderate La Nina looking like the most likely outcome before we start to head to El Nino next year

ECMWF looks to be going for a weak La Nina and a CP event with the coldest anomalies in regions 3.4 and 4 with a climb back to neutral later on.

 

[damianslaw]

15 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

If you want the drought to end then this isn't what you would want to see with most going for above average heights near or over the UK

None of these look especially cold with the lack of a Euro trough on any of them to support the blocking features to get the cold in

NCEP could be the best bet for a Scandi high setup with the trough out west throwing fronts into the cold block

CMCC, JMA and Meteo-FR probably have a chance to get northerly sourced cold in at times.

DWD, ECCC and ECMWF are just a borefest high pressure fest setup, got enough of a borefest last winter for weeks on end, no thank you

UKMO the most zonal of the charts but with this angle of the ridge and trough then cold zonality looks like it could feature quite a bit with occasional mild W or SW winds mixed in with Arctic blasts, very much a 1998/99 chart.

 

As for the La Nina, it is currently a mixed (basin wide) event and looks like according to CFS we will slowly progress to more of an EP event as we go along with moderate La Nina looking like the most likely outcome before we start to head to El Nino next year

ECMWF looks to be going for a weak La Nina and a CP event with the coldest anomalies in regions 3.4 and 4 with a climb back to neutral later on.

 

Winter 98-99 though predominantly mild, had a few arctic shots, mid November was quite cold with frost and fog, early Dec delivered a shot of snow, and there was a further dusting just before christmas. Jan also brought a shortlived cold NW blast, and second week Feb was cold with northerly and a bit of snow, after some of the shockingly mild snowfree winters, I'd take another 98-99 winter any day. Alas there was alot of rain at times as well, Dec was very stormy and I wouldn't want a repeat of christmas 98 which was stormy very wet and very mild.

[summer blizzard]

17AUG2022: Nino3: -0.8 , Nino3.4: -1.2 , Nino4: -1.0

[summer blizzard]

17AUG2022: Nino3: -0.4 , Nino3.4: -0.9 , Nino4: -0.8

[Cheshire Freeze]

CFS has gone very stormy looking for Jan and Feb...2014 again? How does that year fit with the analogues?

Edited August 30, 2022 by CreweCold