E.N.S.O. Discussion

[Don]

10 hours ago, CreweCold said:

CFS has gone very stormy looking for Jan and Feb...2014 again? How does that year fit with the analogues?

Yes, a poor update from the CFS.  However, those charts do tie in with the expected long term trend i.e. hot/dry summers and mild/stormy winters.  That said, it's still early days for the coming winter but not good to see!

[SqueakheartLW]

8 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, a poor update from the CFS.  However, those charts do tie in with the expected long term trend i.e. hot/dry summers and mild/stormy winters.  That said, it's still early days for the coming winter but not good to see!

Maybe going off the prediction by the CFS for a CP La Nina which would tie in with that annoying NE Pacific ridge and all of the troughing in the N Atlantic firing the jet stream right at the UK.

Then again we've had a generally long period now with a weak zonal flow off the Atlantic. It would be expected to change at some stage.

[SqueakheartLW]

19 hours ago, CreweCold said:

CFS has gone very stormy looking for Jan and Feb...2014 again? How does that year fit with the analogues?

Although that year was ENSO Neutral which is different to this year it did start off the general trend we have seen since of the NE Pacific ridge which has generally turned into our winter killer.

Both 2013/14 and 2022/23 expected to be WQBO winters

Both 2013/14 and 2022/23 expected to be relatively high solar activity

Both 2013/14 and 2022/23 expected to be winters just before an El Nino comes into play the following year (2023 expected to be a developing El Nino year)

Both 2013/14 and 2022/23 should have come off the back of a colder winter. 2012/13 was but 2021/22 should have been too with so many factors in favour of one if it were not for that polar vortex sitting in the worst possible place for UK cold for much of it.

[damianslaw]

Oh gosh please no, worse winter ever that one! Just one long storm. Rather have 15-16 or 19-20 than a winter like that one again. Mind given energy costs perhaps some would be happy with a mild winter like 13-14, but if you want mild and quiet weather 16-17 is what you want.

[Don]

3 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Maybe going off the prediction by the CFS for a CP La Nina which would tie in with that annoying NE Pacific ridge and all of the troughing in the N Atlantic firing the jet stream right at the UK.

Then again we've had a generally long period now with a weak zonal flow off the Atlantic. It would be expected to change at some stage.

I was of the understanding that a CP weak to moderate La Nina was a relatively positive sign for a colder winter?  However, that NE Pacific ridge has been a strong player since 2014 and with such warm waters in that region currently, it will likely be a strong player for the coming winter, too!

48 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Oh gosh please no, worse winter ever that one! Just one long storm. Rather have 15-16 or 19-20 than a winter like that one again. Mind given energy costs perhaps some would be happy with a mild winter like 13-14, but if you want mild and quiet weather 16-17 is what you want.

Me too, although 2019/20 was nearly as bad!  Some might be happy with a mild winter like 2013/14 in view of energy costs, however, they won't be happy if their homes get flooded!

Edited August 31, 2022 by Don

[Don]

3 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Although that year was ENSO Neutral which is different to this year it did start off the general trend we have seen since of the NE Pacific ridge which has generally turned into our winter killer.

Both 2013/14 and 2022/23 expected to be WQBO winters

Both 2013/14 and 2022/23 expected to be relatively high solar activity

Both 2013/14 and 2022/23 expected to be winters just before an El Nino comes into play the following year (2023 expected to be a developing El Nino year)

Both 2013/14 and 2022/23 should have come off the back of a colder winter. 2012/13 was but 2021/22 should have been too with so many factors in favour of one if it were not for that polar vortex sitting in the worst possible place for UK cold for much of it.

That's a rather grim reading.....

However, we will see.

Also worth adding that 2013 had a quiet hurricane season.  The 2022 season has got off to a very quiet start, so something else to monitor moving forward.

 

Edited August 31, 2022 by Don

[northwestsnow]

Looking like a moderate CP Nina at this stage ..

 

Best hope Nov & Dec 

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looking like a moderate CP Nina at this stage ..

 

Best hope Nov & Dec 

I guess last winter never played ball despite all the signals.. ENSO just one factor. 

[Don]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

I guess last winter never played ball despite all the signals.. ENSO just one factor. 

Some held the view that November and December last year had the best chance for colder weather.  However, apart from a cold snap late November with a little snow, it was predominantly mild.

[jules216]

On 31/08/2022 at 01:00, CreweCold said:

CFS has gone very stormy looking for Jan and Feb...2014 again? How does that year fit with the analogues?

@CreweColdunfortunatelly 2013 oné of the best analogs if not the best

[Don]

30 minutes ago, jules216 said:

@CreweColdunfortunatelly 2013 oné of the best analogs if not the best

Would be hard pushed to find a better match!!  A horror show!

[jules216]

2 hours ago, Don said:

Would be hard pushed to find a better match!!  A horror show!

Lets see how this pans out, august was painfully similar here in Slovakia to 2013, very hot. September was cold and Guess what,today Also started as below average and will last fór ,3 days then turns milder fór a week and later slightly below average. Will have to weight in 2013 as a posibility.

[Don]

4 hours ago, jules216 said:

Lets see how this pans out, august was painfully similar here in Slovakia to 2013, very hot. September was cold and Guess what,today Also started as below average and will last fór ,3 days then turns milder fór a week and later slightly below average. Will have to weight in 2013 as a posibility.

Well, I'm not going to hope for a hot September this year lol!! 

[SqueakheartLW]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Well, I'm not going to hope for a hot September this year lol!! 

Just out of interest I have just done a comparison of August 2013 500mb anomalies against the 30 days of August 2022 we have got on the 500mb anomaly charts so far

August 2013                                            August 2022 (1st to 30th)

Some very striking similarities between these charts, the ridging from the Atlantic through the UK to Scandinavia, the troughing around Greenland to an extent and the ridge in the NW Pacific and over Canada and N USA too.

Although we shouldn't really pattern match in this situation there are too many similarities here to ignore it.

 

Also here's September 2013. Hope we don't end up matching this one

Edited September 1, 2022 by SqueakheartLW

[Don]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Although we shouldn't really pattern match in this situation there are too many similarities here to ignore it.

No, we can't unfortunately!  The north east Pacific is very warm too, which also played a part during winter 2013/14.  However, North America could get plunged into the freezer this winter!

[sundog]

I hated winter 13/14, I couldn't wait for spring to arrive.  Really hope we don't get a similar winter this yr.  In one way it wasn't overly mild as such, the Highlands got plenty of snow that winter.  

Edited September 1, 2022 by sundog

[damianslaw]

39 minutes ago, Don said:

No, we can't unfortunately!  The north east Pacific is very warm too, which also played a part during winter 2013/14.  However, North America could get plunged into the freezer this winter!

The NE Pacific has been anomalously warm since 2013/2014 it seems... and high pressure has largely been the dominant feature in most winters most of the time since that one - leading to west canada being favoured for some very cold conditions at times as the trough digs in from the NW. Would be interested to note temps over central/west Canada and CN America since winter 2013/14 - I suspect the only part of the northern hemisphere that has seen average temps against the mean or indeed below at times..

As for pattern matching, I don't base forecasts for months and seasons based on synoptics that may look similiar to another single month - the rest of 2013 with exception of July has shown virtually no similiarities with 2022 so far for example..

[summer blizzard]

2013 is a poor match IMO. It was sufficiently uncoupled that the MEI was around -0.5 and the pattern over the US was rarely -PNA.

Our recent MEI values have been consistent with a very coupled atmosphere which typically suggests that once we enter winter the pattern over the US will flip to one not matching 2014. That’s not to say we won’t have a zonal winter, just not of that kind.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

2013 is a poor match IMO. It was sufficiently uncoupled that the MEI was around -0.5 and the pattern over the US was rarely -PNA.

Our recent MEI values have been consistent with a very coupled atmosphere which typically suggests that once we enter winter the pattern over the US will flip to one not matching 2014. That’s not to say we won’t have a zonal winter, just not of that kind.

Cold zonal perhaps then? I guess most people want a mild fairly wet but not too wet a winter.. keep heating bills down but also prevent drought conditions next spring and limited flooding.  A cold dry winter would perhaps be the worst combination, but on the flip side means limited risk flooding or damage due to storms. Generally wet winters tend to be stormy with flooding.. in a no win situation really.  A wet autumn would help immensely.

Edited September 1, 2022 by damianslaw

[Don]

8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Cold zonal perhaps then? 

Seems to be pretty rare these days?  A classic example of cold zonality was January 1984.

[damianslaw]

Just now, Don said:

Seems to be pretty rare these days?  A classic example of cold zonality was January 1984.

2014-15 brought a fair bit of cold zonality at times but no where near as potent as Jan 84. 

[Don]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

2014-15 brought a fair bit of cold zonality at times but no where near as potent as Jan 84. 

Yes true.

[Met4Cast]

21 hours ago, jules216 said:

@CreweColdunfortunatelly 2013 oné of the best analogs if not the best

Coming to the same conclusion myself re: 2013/14 being a good composite, a quick reminder of that winters pressure anomalies:

Perhaps one thing working against that idea a little is that the entire Atlantic basin is warm, in 2013 there were cold anomalies to the S of Greenland enhancing the thermal gradient & energising the jet stream, in theory without that colder water this year, the jet will be weaker. 

We've also got to consider the -IDO and the impacts that could potentially have on working against the idea of a stormy winter. Having said that - This winter is perhaps looking the worst yet in terms of potential prolonged cold risks at this (admittedly) very early stage.

[Don]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

We've also got to consider the -IDO and the impacts that could potentially have on working against the idea of a stormy winter. Having said that - This winter is perhaps looking the worst yet in terms of potential prolonged cold risks at this (admittedly) very early stage.

What was the state of the IDO in winter 2013/14?  My guess is it was positive and similar to 2019/20, which would go against this winter being similar to 2013/14 but I don't know?

Edited September 2, 2022 by Don

[summer blizzard]

There's no chart but 2014 is listed as a negative event for the IOD.