E.N.S.O. Discussion

[Don]

8 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Yes my first thoughts looking at that were around cold zonality. Always the chance of wintry surprises with that and infinitely better than a dominant Euro slug.

It could be one of those set ups where we may get little zipper lows with cold air on their N flank, if we can get the PFJ far enough S.

The CFS is broadly supportive of this too...the deepest LP anomalies are away from Greenland with moderate higher than average pressure anomalies over the polar field. 

Obviously, with this sort of pattern we also run the risk of some severe wind storms.

 

Yes, although the charts from 2013/14 do look similar and away from the Scottish Highlands, it was a pretty snow free winter.  However, there is certainly potential for cold zonality with these charts and winter surprises particularly for midlands northwards.  Probably not all that great for those living in the south though?

Edited September 3, 2022 by Don

[reef]

Both charts look poor to me. The intense high pressure over the Northern Pacific serves only to drive down cold air into the US which spills out of the east coast and fires up the jet. Its a winter killer pattern.

My first thoughts were also 2013/14 looking at that. That winter was rarely exceptionally mild, but just had relentless low pressure and temps in the 6-10C range. Grim, though it would sort the drought problem!

[Don]

2 minutes ago, reef said:

Both charts look poor to me. The intense high pressure over the Northern Pacific serves only to drive down cold air into the US which spills out of the east coast and fires up the jet. Its a winter killer pattern.

My first thoughts were also 2013/14 looking at that. That winter was rarely exceptionally mild, but just had relentless low pressure and temps in the 6-10C range. Grim, though it would sort the drought problem!

Yes and with the current warm anomalies over the North East Pacific, you can perhaps see why the models are going for a similar pattern to 2013/14!  However, if the strong jet was to track further south than it did in 2013/14, it could well make for a somewhat more interesting winter!!

[northwestsnow]

Cold zonality is useless for the vast majority.

Even with 200m altitude in the NW cold zonality is not up to much given the effects of a  warm Atlantic and Irish Sea.

Its only Sept so worth holding out for Sept and October's updates but I'm already expecting another crap winter .

[Chesil View]

5 hours ago, Don said:

Yes and with the current warm anomalies over the North East Pacific, you can perhaps see why the models are going for a similar pattern to 2013/14!  However, if the strong jet was to track further south than it did in 2013/14, it could well make for a somewhat more interesting winter!!

Indeed so Don parts of Scotland had their best ski-ing season for years in that god awful winter with huge amounts of snow falling on the north side of those never ending lows.

I can remember people commenting at the time that if the pattern was 150 miles further south that 2013/14 winter would be famous for a very different and much better reason.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

I don't view the seasonal outputs as anywhere near gospel, there's far too many extreme weather events around the world year on year that even multi million pound models simply won't be able to predict, though doing a bit of trend spotting with the seasonal models for fun is understandable and the latest outlooks give plenty of pathways to colder setups throughout the winter months 

And I'm mostly intrigued with the record warmth in the atlantic, I'm not totally buying that it will automatically mean a low pressure dominated scenario as the warm Pacific often results in HIGH pressure so why wouldnt the atlantic heat do the same, remember it's the opposite to the cold blob we've had for many recent winters which weren't highly wintry so maybe the switch away from that will give better odds of blocking and 🌨🌨 , lastly the warm atlantic has tied in with the lowest NAO values since at least June so again doesn't appear to connect with a +NAO setup 

[SqueakheartLW]

1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I don't view the seasonal outputs as anywhere near gospel, there's far too many extreme weather events around the world year on year that even multi million pound models simply won't be able to predict, though doing a bit of trend spotting with the seasonal models for fun is understandable and the latest outlooks give plenty of pathways to colder setups throughout the winter months 

And I'm mostly intrigued with the record warmth in the atlantic, I'm not totally buying that it will automatically mean a low pressure dominated scenario as the warm Pacific often results in HIGH pressure so why wouldnt the atlantic heat do the same, remember it's the opposite to the cold blob we've had for many recent winters which weren't highly wintry so maybe the switch away from that will give better odds of blocking and 🌨🌨 , lastly the warm atlantic has tied in with the lowest NAO values since at least June so again doesn't appear to connect with a +NAO setup 

Also that SSTA chart for the N Atlantic isn't far away from a tripole either. Just push those warm anomalies a little bit further north and it's game on tripole

Combine this with a possible weak La Nina winter which has a colder signal anyway as well as the cold southern polar stratosphere possibly balancing out with a warmer than normal northern polar stratosphere this winter as a result there are some factors already in favour of colder

[jules216]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Also that SSTA chart for the N Atlantic isn't far away from a tripole either. Just push those warm anomalies a little bit further north and it's game on tripole

Combine this with a possible weak La Nina winter which has a colder signal anyway as well as the cold southern polar stratosphere possibly balancing out with a warmer than normal northern polar stratosphere this winter as a result there are some factors already in favour of colder

Colder the southern Hemisphere the less Ozone is there to be Transported to Northern Hemisfere by BD Circulation.

[Don]

11 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Its only Sept so worth holding out for Sept and October's updates but I'm already expecting another crap winter .

Always best to do that in the UK to avoid disappointment!

[Met4Cast]

On 03/09/2022 at 11:00, reef said:

Both charts look poor to me. The intense high pressure over the Northern Pacific serves only to drive down cold air into the US which spills out of the east coast and fires up the jet. Its a winter killer pattern.

My first thoughts were also 2013/14 looking at that. That winter was rarely exceptionally mild, but just had relentless low pressure and temps in the 6-10C range. Grim, though it would sort the drought problem!

Yes.. some early straw clutching going on I think, rather than forming an opinion to fit the facts  people are starting out with the opinion of "colder is possible" and then finding the facts to fit with that view. 

Given the current background (and predicted background signals) I'm really struggling to find any reason to think a colder than average winter is plausible. There's little point trying to pick out monthly detail at this range, so sticking with the broader 3 monthly view for now. 

Of course colder spells are possible in even the mildest of winters, but on balance, at the moment, I would heavily favour an above average winter (perhaps significantly so) with the usual caveat that cold spells/snaps will always be possible.

And I'm sorry, but the SST's are no where near the classic tripole, they couldn't be further from it.

SST's do perhaps suggest on balance that an active jet stream is less likely, but any cold intrusions into NE America would fire it up rapidly given how warm the seas are off Newfoundland. 

La Nina + SST's + wQBO for me scream milder than average winter. Very little is pointing towards a cold winter.

[Don]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

La Nina + SST's + wQBO for me scream milder than average winter. Very little is pointing towards a cold winter.

Whatever happens, it's going to be an interesting period of watching developments (as always!).  At least a December 2015 is not looking likely at this stage, would you agree?  However, a similar month would be perfect for saving energy!

[summer blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Whatever happens, it's going to be an interesting period of watching developments (as always!).  At least a December 2015 is not looking likely at this stage, would you agree?  However, a similar month would be perfect for saving energy!

Can never rule anything out. The 73-75 event produced Dec 74. I would say its less likely personally we can only forecast based on probability rather than certainty. 

[Don]

29 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Can never rule anything out. The 73-75 event produced Dec 74. I would say its less likely personally we can only forecast based on probability rather than certainty. 

Well of course you can't.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

Yes.. some early straw clutching going on I think, rather than forming an opinion to fit the facts  people are starting out with the opinion of "colder is possible" and then finding the facts to fit with that view. 

Given the current background (and predicted background signals) I'm really struggling to find any reason to think a colder than average winter is plausible. There's little point trying to pick out monthly detail at this range, so sticking with the broader 3 monthly view for now. 

Of course colder spells are possible in even the mildest of winters, but on balance, at the moment, I would heavily favour an above average winter (perhaps significantly so) with the usual caveat that cold spells/snaps will always be possible.

And I'm sorry, but the SST's are no where near the classic tripole, they couldn't be further from it.

SST's do perhaps suggest on balance that an active jet stream is less likely, but any cold intrusions into NE America would fire it up rapidly given how warm the seas are off Newfoundland. 

La Nina + SST's + wQBO for me scream milder than average winter. Very little is pointing towards a cold winter.

"straw clutching" cmon it's the 4th of September not like its the 4th of February and we've been through a tortuous non snowfall producing winter, I appreciate everyone can have their own views on how seasons may pan out I'm totally cool with that but your post is nigh on saying any of the colder weather fans just give up now .. (again it's the 4th of September). Weather and mother nature will always throw out surprises, even a month or so before some of our classic coldest spells very few probably could have forseen them coming.

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

"straw clutching" cmon it's the 4th of September not like its the 4th of February and we've been through a tortuous non snowfall producing winter, I appreciate everyone can have their own views on how seasons may pan out I'm totally cool with that but your post is nigh on saying any of the colder weather fans just give up now .. (again it's the 4th of September). Weather and mother nature will always throw out surprises, even a month or so before some of our classic coldest spells very few probably could have forseen them coming.

Whilst only early September - I feel a separate thread - early thoughts winter 2022-23 may be warranted, otherwise this thread looks like it will quickly become the winter discussion thread... I'll see if mods think too early for such a thread, but inevitably as we enter Autumn thoughts turn to winter.

[northwestsnow]

ECMWF seasonal 500 hPa

Nov

Dec

Jan

Of interest is the LP anomaly over S Spain...

[Don]

58 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ECMWF seasonal 500 hPa

Nov

Dec

Jan

Of interest is the LP anomaly over S Spain...

I was expecting worse TBH and with little sign of that Euro slug, I'm slightly relieved lol!

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

ECMWF seasonal 500 hPa

Nov

Dec

Jan

Of interest is the LP anomaly over S Spain...

On the face of it that’s a very good update

[summer blizzard]

Jan is a +AO. That probably suggests a sinking high. La Nina typically has a better Q4 than Q1 so it's not unexpected.

Edited September 5, 2022 by summer blizzard

[Cheshire Freeze]

Early season cold has to be possible from that?

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

ECMWF seasonal 500 hPa

Nov

Dec

Jan

Of interest is the LP anomaly over S Spain...

Are these temp anomalies or pressure? If pressure suggests a trough parked over west europe, with a southerly jet becoming more NW- SE aligned by Jan given the high pressure to the NE. Would set up a possible cold wintry end to the year.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Are these temp anomalies or pressure? If pressure suggests a trough parked over west europe, with a southerly jet becoming more NW- SE aligned by Jan given the high pressure to the NE. Would set up a possible cold wintry end to the year.

Pressure.

Temps close to average ..

Edited September 5, 2022 by northwestsnow

[Don]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Jan is a +AO. That probably suggests a sinking high. La Nina typically has a better Q4 than Q1 so it's not unexpected.

A typical La Nina 'front loaded' winter then?!

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Don said:

A typical La Nina 'front loaded' winter then?!

What a load of nonsense -- when was the last time one of these 'loaded' winters ever came to fruition, Don. Not aimed at you BTW!

[Cheshire Freeze]

17 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What a load of nonsense -- when was the last time one of these 'loaded' winters ever came to fruition, Don. Not aimed at you BTW!

2010/2011 classic nina winter. Milder as winter progressed.

Last year we were on the cusp of a Christmas severe spell of winter weather.

That week around Christmas-New year is a very very strong example of the correlation between La Nina and N Atlantic blocking. There has been a blocking attempt in almost all of the analogue years.

Edited September 5, 2022 by CreweCold