E.N.S.O. Discussion

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

2010/2011 classic nina winter. Milder as winter progressed.

Last year we were on the cusp of a Christmas severe spell of winter weather.

But that was twelve years ago, Crewe -- hardly a convincing record?

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But that was twelve years ago, Crewe -- hardly a convincing record?

I have looked at the multi year Ninas and they ALL have a blocking attempt in that same week around Christmas. Every one of them. Caveat is the sample size is small.

Edited September 5, 2022 by CreweCold

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I have looked at the multi year Ninas and they ALL have a blocking attempt in that same week around Christmas. Every one of them.

And yet they still, more often than not, come to nothing?

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

And yet they still, more often than not, come to nothing?

Very often there is a tad too much energy in the N arm of the jet yes.

However, it's a ticket into the lottery.

[Methuselah]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Very often there is a tad too much energy in the N arm of the jet yes.

However, it's a ticket into the lottery.

And/or there are things nearer to home that influence our seasons more than ENSO does?

[Don]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

What a load of nonsense -- when was the last time one of these 'loaded' winters ever came to fruition, Don. Not aimed at you BTW!

Ok, my apologies, I should have said 'classic' La Nina front loaded winter! 

Typically El Nino's increase the chances of colder weather later winter (back loaded) whist La Nina's increase the chances of early cold in winter (front loaded), although by no means a guarantee.  However, it's probably less straightforward these days as climate change has perhaps added further complications to the mix!

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Pressure.

Temps close to average ..

Ok, then definately a signal for a trough over the UK, cold and mild probably cancelling each other out and possibly notably wet - rain and snow!

[damianslaw]

26 minutes ago, Don said:

Ok, my apologies, I should have said 'classic' La Nina front loaded winter! 

Typically El Nino's increase the chances of colder weather later winter (back loaded) whist La Nina's increase the chances of early cold in winter (front loaded), although by no means a guarantee.  However, it's probably less straightforward these days as climate change has perhaps added further complications to the mix!

1996-97 and 2010-11 best examples of front loaded winters, with cold ends to November followed by persistant cold in December, lasting into January, but weakening considerably by mid month.

I've commented in another thread how dry both 1996 and 2010 were, comparable to 2022, with exceptionally quiet atlantics, with high pressure dominant, both years had notable cold in the winter as well, winter 95-96 and 09-10, the comparisons are quite alarming. This year though we come on the back of a very mild winter, but it was also very quiet and often blocked, except latter part of Feb, just the blocking this year set up wrong for cold weather.

Going further back, 1976 featured a very dry year until the autumn, the winter 75-76 was very dry indeed and very mild akin to the winter just gone, we had the exceptional heat of the summer - again same as this year, the December of 76 was very cold with lots of high pressure, difference to 1996 and 2010 was the autumn was exceptionally wet.. I don't know if la nina was present end 1976, 1996 and 2010.

Edited September 5, 2022 by damianslaw

[summer blizzard]

49 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

1996-97 and 2010-11 best examples of front loaded winters, with cold ends to November followed by persistant cold in December, lasting into January, but weakening considerably by mid month.

I've commented in another thread how dry both 1996 and 2010 were, comparable to 2022, with exceptionally quiet atlantics, with high pressure dominant, both years had notable cold in the winter as well, winter 95-96 and 09-10, the comparisons are quite alarming. This year though we come on the back of a very mild winter, but it was also very quiet and often blocked, except latter part of Feb, just the blocking this year set up wrong for cold weather.

Going further back, 1976 featured a very dry year until the autumn, the winter 75-76 was very dry indeed and very mild akin to the winter just gone, we had the exceptional heat of the summer - again same as this year, the December of 76 was very cold with lots of high pressure, difference to 1996 and 2010 was the autumn was exceptionally wet.. I don't know if la nina was present end 1976, 1996 and 2010.

76 was a Nina to Nino flip year by the end.

96 was a dying Nina but still likely coupled as weak.

10 was one of the strongest La Nina's on record.

 

[damianslaw]

52 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

76 was a Nina to Nino flip year by the end.

96 was a dying Nina but still likely coupled as weak.

10 was one of the strongest La Nina's on record.

 

Ok so all la nina years.. even more interesting!

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Ok so all la nina years.. even more interesting!

Only early 76 was.

[jules216]

I have got a firm idea of my best analog year for december - 2000. It ties with -1.6 NAO Sigma of latest EC monthly,Also with P.Roundy lowpass analogs. Actually a hybrid 2000/2020 is my favorite. The upshot of this is coldest weather to be in UK,Spain,Portugal with poorly placed east Európe high pressure. Lack of deep cold, but that to help strat warming later - Ural high, then coupled with weakening Nina a possiblity of colder shots second half of winter. Overal a little bit more southerly jet stream then 2013/14 but very wet winter in UK,possibly slightly colder.

[northwestsnow]

20 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I have got a firm idea of my best analog year for december - 2000. It ties with -1.6 NAO Sigma of latest EC monthly,Also with P.Roundy lowpass analogs. Actually a hybrid 2000/2020 is my favorite. The upshot of this is coldest weather to be in UK,Spain,Portugal with poorly placed east Európe high pressure. Lack of deep cold, but that to help strat warming later - Ural high, then coupled with weakening Nina a possiblity of colder shots second half of winter. Overal a little bit more southerly jet stream then 2013/14 but very wet winter in UK,possibly slightly colder.

Thanks Jules.

That composite looks a bit West Based -NAO to me but on balance there is more hope than I anticipated this Winter.

Looks a Modoki Nina to me which is usually bad news for Europe - but  no sign on EC seasonal of a raging +NAO set up hopefully Oct update continues the theme.

I'm reading about the Tongan eruption  and the huge  injection of  water vapour into the Southern Stratosphere ,some suggestion of a weakening of the PV in NH winter.. 

Edited September 6, 2022 by northwestsnow

[Don]

49 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I have got a firm idea of my best analog year for december - 2000. It ties with -1.6 NAO Sigma of latest EC monthly,Also with P.Roundy lowpass analogs. Actually a hybrid 2000/2020 is my favorite. The upshot of this is coldest weather to be in UK,Spain,Portugal with poorly placed east Európe high pressure. Lack of deep cold, but that to help strat warming later - Ural high, then coupled with weakening Nina a possiblity of colder shots second half of winter. Overal a little bit more southerly jet stream then 2013/14 but very wet winter in UK,possibly slightly colder.

Thanks Jules.  All sounds rather interesting for the coming winter and hopefully no raging positive NAO!  2000/01 and 2020/21 were reasonable winters for the UK, too, particularly further north.

[jules216]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Thanks Jules.  All sounds rather interesting for the coming winter and hopefully no raging positive NAO!  2000/01 and 2020/21 were reasonable winters for the UK, too, particularly further north.

Its certainly looking better fór you in UK then here in Slovakia. We would hope that with poor pattern to the east of us at least some hope for Ural high strat.warming occurs to benefit later winter. If I get Cooler december it will mean the rest of winter would be crap, like 2021/22. 

[summer blizzard]

31AUG2022: Nino3: -0.4 , Nino3.4: -0.8 , Nino4: -1.1

August ONI came in at -1.0. 

JJA ONI came in at -0.8. 

July ONI was about -0.6 so we probably won't hit -1.0 for JAS. 

[summer blizzard]

07SEP2022: Nino3: -0.7 , Nino3.4: -1.0 , Nino4: -1.1

Edited September 18, 2022 by summer blizzard

[summer blizzard]

14SEP2022: Nino3: -0.8 , Nino3.4: -0.9 , Nino4: -0.9

[sebastiaan1973]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/enso-continues-to-stagnate-as-winter.html

[summer blizzard]

21SEP2022: Nino3: -0.8 , Nino3.4: -0.9 , Nino4: -1.0

28SEP2022: Nino3: -1.0 , Nino3.4: -0.8 , Nino4: -1.1

ONI for September was -0.9.

ONI for JAS was confirmed at -0.9 (lowest since 2010 for this time of year).

 

[summer blizzard]

05OCT2022: Nino3: -0.9 , Nino3.4: -0.8 , Nino4: -1.2

[summer blizzard]

12OCT2022: Nino3: -1.0 , Nino3.4: -0.8 , Nino4: -1.1

[summer blizzard]

Nino 1.2 hit -2.0 for the first time since 2013. 

 

Steady for Q4 at least. 

[summer blizzard]

19OCT2022: Nino3: -0.8 , Nino3.4: -0.8 , Nino4: -1.1

26OCT2022: Nino3: -1.0 , Nino3.4: -1.0 , Nino4: -1.1

ONI for October came in around -0.85, slightly weaker than September.

ONI for ASO came in at -1.0 (never weaker than -0.8 this year).

November ONI needs to come in around -1.2 to stay below -1.0. 

 

[summer blizzard]

02NOV2022: Nino3: -1.1 , Nino3.4: -1.1 , Nino4: -1.0