E.N.S.O. Discussion

[damianslaw]

 summer blizzard Thanks for the reply. More anticyclonic gloom for Feb and March then? A common feature since late October. High pressure sat to our South and South east, PV to the north west, from a weather enthusiasts perspective like watching paint dry. Someone did say winter 24-25 would be an anticyclonic gloom fest. 

[Don]

8 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Someone did say winter 24-25 would be an anticyclonic gloom fest. 

Good that it's been somewhat more interesting than that!

[cheeky_monkey]

looking at the ENSO right now and how it has trended through the winter i thought we would be nailed on into moving into an ElNino state as we headed through the year...seems not only one model is forecasting ElNino and the rest show neutral or weak LaNina again as we reach winter 

[damianslaw]

Good to know what the ENSO position was in all winters since 2008.

Weak and neutral la ninas I think correlate with early cold and late winter warmth. This year we saw cold in the middle rather than early on, but its been a mild end again. 

[summer blizzard]

 cheeky_monkey Models typically respond to the sub-surface which is still cold. 

It does probably mean that we won't see a declared event for this winter though as Feb will average above -0.5. 

Trades still strong in the central and west Pacific. 

 

[summer blizzard]

 

Ended up only at Nina threshold for two tri-monthly periods so winter was cold-neutral  for the first time since winter 2014.

ONI for March rose to +0.1 as we’ve seen 1.2.3 warm however this appears surface driven since we see persistent trades near 3.4 and negative sub-surface anomalies. 

If a Nina develops it will probably start to show its hand from May-July as trades typically start to strengthen otherwise we probably stay cold-neutral given the sub-surface.
 

 

[damianslaw]

 summer blizzard What would a cold neutral phase in summer likely deliver?

[summer blizzard]

 damianslaw That likely depends on other factors and how strong trades and convection are. ENSO neutral in either direction implies episodic coupling and so may translate to changeable patterns. It also allows for higher than average hurricane activity in the Atlantic which can impact us any number of ways.

So the answer is that it’s probably the most difficult to correlate with U.K. weather but AAM bouncing up and down episodically would probably not produce the stability seen in the best (or worst) summers.

In terms of analogue set for second year starting neutral event after Nino we get 1960, 1967, 1981 and 2020 for cold with 1979, 1993 and 2004 being warm ONI. That’s a mixed set of years for summer.

Worth saying that 1960, 1967, 1979, 1981, 1993 and 2004 were all just pauses in multi year Nino phases 1979 and 2004 developed events by years end, 2020 was arguably just a much delayed flip from Nino to Nina. This does tend to suggest that another Nino may develop next year.

Edited April 30 by summer blizzard

[StretfordEnd1996]

I'm a complete novice really when it comes to ENSO stuff and all related but I do still have interest in it.

I wonder if this could be another period of ENSO neutral conditions lasting 6-12 months or more. If so, it would mean we'd have been in ENSO neutral territory with no official La Nina or El Nino since MAM 2024. So if that lasts until Autumn period that's a run of at least 18 months.

 

That appears not to be a regular occurrence at all as the below shows - you'd have to go back to 2012-2014 for the last period of extended neutral territory of that length, and then maybe to 1992-1994.

 

[damianslaw]

 StretfordEnd1996 Oh dear both very wet atlantic dominated periods.. though with colder interest i.e. winter 12-13 and winter 93-94 to an extent. Indeed quite variable periods temp wise, perhaps spring 25 fits in the mould extreme warmth rather than cold though. 

Edited June 4 by damianslaw

[StretfordEnd1996]

 damianslaw yes,2025 also not following that same degree of precipitation either, quite the opposite in fact 

[summer blizzard]

 StretfordEnd1996

As I stated on April 30th the data supports another Nino next year if a Nina can’t form this year. 

[summer blizzard]

 damianslaw 12-14 was more of a delayed switch from Nina to Nino. This neutral between two Nino sandwich events would be more similar to 02-05, 91-95, 76-83, 65-70, 57-64, 51-54.

Worth saying that all but 51-54 occurred during a generally neutral to positive PDO. We’ve been sustaining near record annual averages since 2020.

[StretfordEnd1996]

9 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

As I stated on April 30th the data supports another Nino next year if a Nina can’t form this year. 

Thanks for this sorry I may of missed that comment - and thank you as ever for all your valued input into this thread

[sebastiaan1973]

Strong Consensus for Marginal La Niña During Winter 2025-2026 Means Other Factors May Play Larger Role

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 summer blizzard  the QBO in may went easterly, that will be interesting especially where winter 2025-26 is concerned.    

[summer blizzard]

 Addicks Fan 1981 Wouldn't get too excited.

Neutral ENSO, -QBO is horrid.

-ONI, -QBO only gets good come March. 

Exceptions obviously such as winter 06.

[Don]

On 24/06/2025 at 19:00, summer blizzard said:

Wouldn't get too excited.

Neutral ENSO, -QBO is horrid.

-ONI, -QBO only gets good come March. 

Exceptions obviously such as winter 06.

Never do get 'too' excited when it comes to winter these days lol!  Winter 05/06 wasn't all that much to write home about overall, although late February and March produced the goods for some.

[sundog]

 Don true but our winters have become so poor that i would take a 05/06 winter if it was offered.  The bar is getting ever lower lol

[summer blizzard]

 Don I actually loved winter 06. Uneventful and not much snow until late but it was easily the frostiest winter outside of the greats.

[Don]

 sundog this is true!

[northwestsnow]

 summer blizzard

my recollection was we came close to some very cold weather and Europe had a cold one.

Im like you ,I enjoy anticyclonic November onwards.

[summer blizzard]

 northwestsnow Coldest since 87 in large parts of Europe, we missed out on a fantastic mid Jan beast.

[damianslaw]

 summer blizzard Talk of NW-SE divides, that's a mighty NW - NE europe divide. 

[blizzard81]

 summer blizzard What about neutral enso, -qbo and near solar max?