South East England/East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 10/02/14

[alexisj9]

No offence to nobody posting this here as I feel I will cause a big spark else where, but there are some real newbies posting charts they don't really understand and commenting the wrong things on them.. FAIR PLAY to them though for giving it a go and having an opinion but people get too tied to runs to easily, I think people should understand how we view our weather and how it works run by run model by model... We have some world class posters on the forum that know far more than 75% of people on here. But some people scare and worry others with some posts that they just don't really get..

 

But what can I say I just post charts up write a little and panic 

 

Like this one..

 

Everybody has been oblivious to this all day.. and getting to bogged down on the bigger threat Wednesday... But peeps in the southern most part of our "diminishing island" are at threat from some pretty strong westerly winds tomorrow morning on rush hour...

 

wind 1.jpg

 

wind 2.png

 

50-60mph gusts on the coast anyone?

 

Nope...

Thanks surrey, didn't know about that one.

[HighPressure]

I dont understand, even when it finally stops raining, where is all the flood water going to go to?How it is going to disperse?

Water which cannot be soaked into the ground will find its way to the nearest river. In summer rain water evaporates but very of that happens in the winter.

 

This why major rivers such as the Thames feel the effects 2 or 3 days after major rainfall.

Edited February 10, 2014 by HighPressure

[JennyJane1]

Water which cannot be soaked into the ground will find its way to the nearest river. In summer rain water evaporates but very of that happens in the winter.

 

This why major rivers such as the Thames feel the effects 2 or 3 days after major rainfall.

Thats what I thought but it can't be reabsorbed back into the river theres too much of it.To my mind, these flooded areas will be flooded for weeks maybe months to come, its not something which will sort itself out in a few days time.

[Snowangel-MK]

I dont understand, even when it finally stops raining, where is all the flood water going to go to?How it is going to disperse?

Well unless someone comes along with a giant mop and bucket it will be the same as usual, some of the rain water will drain back into the sea and the rest will evaporate into the atmosphere as water vapour ......it will just take a long time as there is so much of it !

[JK1]

I wonder if some flooded areas could stay permanently flooded?

[john pike]

hi nick

 

notice your 10 years on here today

 

happy anniversary

[Snowangel-MK]

I wonder if some flooded areas could stay permanently flooded?

At the weekend the Sunday Times said that the Somerset Levels are “inundated with 3.2bn cubic feet of water†and that it will take 26 days to pump out the Curry Moor area of Somerset- once it stops raining!

[HighPressure]

I wonder if some flooded areas could stay permanently flooded?

 

Very unlikely although some very bad storms have changed the routes of rivers. Many areas which are flooded are natural flood plains doing their job and the areas will return to predominately dry.

 

We must not forget the role of Transpiration in the water cycle. To test if evaporation is happening find a dry patch of concrete pour a glass of water on it and see how long it takes to dry. In the winter you will note that the ground stays wet for long periods after rainfall whereas in the summer it can be gone in minutes. 

Edited February 10, 2014 by HighPressure

[m1chaels]

So are we expecting any surprise snowfall tomorrow night for the snow depth cup?!

Edited February 10, 2014 by m1chaels

[Snowangel-MK]

London is safe from flooding now ....they have installed another Thames barrier ....

https://mobile.twitter.com/Brandy_Snap/status/432884761330061312/photo/1?screen_name=Brandy_Snap

[john pike]

fax chart for friday

 

 

after overnight showers clear it should start dry

 

with a weak southerly flow

 

however looks like more rain enroute via the fronts to our south

 

 

 

 

temps look chilly then warm quite a bit when the rain arrives

 

 

 

 

so late afternoon onwards expect some very heavy rain for a time

 

also this set up could see some pretty lively thunderstorms

 

not cold at all

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

saturday

 

 

a variable and gusty flow mainly north east due to flow from low

 

could see 60 mph plus winds with this at some stage in the afternoon

 

rainfall

 

 

 

 

so some gusty and fast moving downpours with very strong winds

 

temps

 

 

not too cold during the day around 8-9 degrees

 

however later

 

 

when the winds swing to a colder direction and daylight ends

 

temps will drop quite quick and we may see some wintry showers on the back of the heavy rain

 

the rain on these 2 is not nice

 

lets hope that low shifts away on the next couple of runs

 

 

just a point ukmo and ecm and the fax charts all match for now

 

lets see what tomorrow brings now

Edited February 10, 2014 by john pike

[Iceni]

At the weekend the Sunday Times said that the Somerset Levels are “inundated with 3.2bn cubic feet of water†and that it will take 26 days to pump out the Curry Moor area of Somerset- once it stops raining!

 

Telegraph puts it at "300 Lake Windemeres" have fallen as rain during December, January early February.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10628995/Wettest-ever-two-months-for-south-as-300-Lake-Windermeres-fall.html

 

Interestingly talking to a farmer friend of mine who is currently unable to work due to the mud (which is just everywhere now — can't use public footpaths and have to walk through the undergrowth at the side of them).

 

He said the pasture in the Somerset Levels is a write off. All that grass underwater would have died by now as its roots would have been starved of oxygen — the soil is saturated — grass can cope with a couple of weeks but after a month, it's gone. It would have to be reseeded and start again which will take months/years to re-establish. Most dairy or beef herds will have to be slaughtered unless farmers get funds to buy their feed.

 

I gave him the Netweather TV link and he's hooked. Said it would be brilliant to help him plan his work — he does a lot of ad hoc work for various small holders and other farmers etc. when he's not looking after his own. So NWTV got another fan today.

Edited February 11, 2014 by Iceni

[Snowangel-MK]

I dodged no flood barriers but managed to drown 245 farmers ... can you beat me ?

http://games.usvsth3m.com/flappy-pickles/

[cookie27]

Just reading some facts on flooding(do have A-level Geography) and this situation looks to be a mixture of surface and groundwater...so rightly a lot do could have more to come and could have water for a long time, as groundwater is very slow to dissipate.I blame really bad long term town planning, we shove so much water underground, no wonder its started to bit us in the weeble..just time will tell.

[alexisj9]

lol dodged 2 and drowned 1315 farmers. Think I prefer the proper version of this game though.

I dodged no flood barriers but managed to drown 245 farmers ... can you beat me ?http://games.usvsth3m.com/flappy-pickles/

lol dodged 2 and drowned 1315 farmers. Think I prefer the proper version of this game though.

[Snowangel-MK]

Just reading some facts on flooding(do have A-level Geography) and this situation looks to be a mixture of surface and groundwater...so rightly a lot do could have more to come and could have water for a long time, as groundwater is very slow to dissipate.I blame really bad long term town planning, we shove so much water underground, no wonder its started to bit us in the I have a problem..just time will tell.

I don't have an A level in Geography and I could have told you that it's a mixture of surface and ground water ... I take it you haven't got an A level in English though - only kidding ;-)

[cookie27]

I don't have an A level in Geography and I could have told you that it's a mixture of surface and ground water ... I take it you haven't got an A level in English though - only kidding ;-)

No, just GCSE.....I blame the wine lol

[Steve C]

GFS 18z has Wednesday's storm a bit further north. It would hit Ireland, Wales and Northern England hard, with regards to gales but we'd not suffer too much (notwithstanding the ongoing problem of rainfall)

 

It will be interesting to check the runs early tomorrow morning to see if this changes again, or other models agree with the more northerly scenario.

 

 

 

 

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

fax chart for friday

 

 

after overnight showers clear it should start dry

 

with a weak southerly flow

 

however looks like more rain enroute via the fronts to our south

 

 

 

 

temps look chilly then warm quite a bit when the rain arrives

 

 

 

 

so late afternoon onwards expect some very heavy rain for a time

 

also this set up could see some pretty lively thunderstorms

 

not cold at all

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now you see I like the sound of that. Lively T-Storms. I hope so! Worrying thing here though, is the volume of rain that will be falling on all of this flooded ground.

[john pike]

hi steve the fax charts do

 

thats why i pulled the wind strength down with it

 

not to say it might change again tomorrow morning though

[alexisj9]

GFS 18z has Wednesday's storm a bit further north. It would hit Ireland, Wales and Northern England hard, with regards to gales but we'd not suffer too much (notwithstanding the ongoing problem of rainfall)

 

It will be interesting to check the runs early tomorrow morning to see if this changes again, or other models agree with the more northerly scenario.

 

GFS 18z Weds Eve.png

I would prefer the main winds to stay north, the Christmas storm was scary the way it arced out my electric several times. Got lucky that it didn't stay off. Don't want to see that happen again. That the thundery squall line thing arced it out once too.

[john pike]

hi east

 

its a nice set up for storms

 

as you say not for the rainfall involved

 

long way out though and i have noticed these lows being shifted around each night

 

so more runs needed

 

where have we heard that before ?

[Snowangel-MK]

No, just GCSE.....I blame the wine lol

Lol drinking wine normally improves my spelling, grammar and punctuation ...well the first bottle anyway then it can go a bit down hill from there onwards !

[Paul Ashford]

I dodged no flood barriers but managed to drown 245 farmers ... can you beat me ?http://games.usvsth3m.com/flappy-pickles/

Really helpful when friends and family are struggling with the devastation of floods - almost as helpful as closing threads after an in depth view of the week ahead. Apologies a little stressed.

[john pike]

heres the ecm ensembles 12z

 

temps

 

 

wind

 

 

temps

 

 

have a look and make your own minds up here