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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

    Another low has developed in the Australian basin. The system is currently spinning to the northeast of Queensland. Currently, the system is lacking convection and it has a rather linear NW-SE oriented structure. This can be seen in the Rainbow satellite loop below:

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    The Bureau of Meteorology expects the cyclone to become a category one cyclone (between 38 and 54 kt) and make landfall in Queensland, as can be seen below:

     

    Posted Image

     

    Of note is that the GFS was forecasting the cyclone to become a hurricane (SSHS scale), but since then the model has been trending downward quite significantly.

     

    Sources:

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96P/96P_floater.html

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2%80%9314_Australian_region_cyclone_season#Tropical_Low_14U

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    13U is not overly impressive on satellite imagery. The system is still broad, and the LLC is poorly defined. Convection is rather shallow near the LLCC too. Moderate shear, which may not hinder a vertically aligned system quite so much, is really preventing the weak 13U from consolidating into a tropical cyclone at the moment. JTWC have re-issued a tropical cyclone formation alert as 13U failed to become a tropical cyclone in the time constraints of the first one, but it may not succeed this time either. BOM are still expecting 13U to become a weak tropical cyclone, which may well be short lived, but I think there may be a fair chance this system may not get named at all unless shear eases.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

    Even despite the JTWC cancelling their tropical cyclone formation alert, the Bureau of Meteorology has upgraded 13U to tropical storm Hadi. The system currently consists of a circular area of convection that is pulsating rather frequently. Given the persistent convection, I expect the JTWC to upgrade 13U shortly.

     

    Posted Image

     

    The forecast track of Hadi is a very unusual one, to say the least. This forecast of the Bureau of Meteorology can be seen below:

     

    Posted Image

     

    The forecast shows the system moving eastward initially, before curving to the northeast (!), while strengthening to peak as a category 2 cyclone (winds between 55 and 71 kt), and weaken to a tropical low thereafter. The system was initially forecast to move very close to the Australian coast, but that seems to have changed rather dramatically. I have rarely seen such a forecasted track toward the equator in this part of the Pacific ocean.

     

    Once again, due to the very unusual forecast track, this track could easily shift very wildly, which is occuring right now with cyclone Gillian, too. 

     

    The cyclone is still discernible in 180 hours on the GFS, as can be seen below:

     

    Posted Image

    GFS MSLP T180 (12Z)

     

    Hadi can be seen in the extreme eastern corner of the map, as the sub-1000 mb low pressure area.

     

    Note that 180 hours out is not very reliable, especially when it comes to tropical cyclones. It is a very interesting scenario, though, but it isn't very likely to occur.

     

    One thing will be certain, I will follow this cyclone with excitement!

     

    Sources:
    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96P/96P_floater.html

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnet.html
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales

    http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/

    Edited by Vorticity0123
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    It's track reminds me a little of TC Edna earlier in the year, a track that I thought at the time was highly unusual.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Hadi is looking much healthier this morning, with building centralised convection and formative banding. JTWC are about to issue their first warning, and BOM have upped the intensity to 40kts. The improved organisation is due to reducing shear, and Hadi could continue to strengthen for the next day before shear increases again as the cyclone moves further into the Coral Sea in a northeasterly direction as ridging builds to the north.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

    Hadi is looking much healthier this morning, with building centralised convection and formative banding. JTWC are about to issue their first warning, and BOM have upped the intensity to 40kts. The improved organisation is due to reducing shear, and Hadi could continue to strengthen for the next day before shear increases again as the cyclone moves further into the Coral Sea in a northeasterly direction as ridging builds to the north.

     

    Still, the LLCC of Hadi seems to be partially exposed to the northeast of the main area of pulsating convection. According to CIMSS, the center is just beneath the convective envelope. The banding features that were apparent a few hours ago have since dissipated.

     

     

    It's track reminds me a little of TC Edna earlier in the year, a track that I thought at the time was highly unusual.

     

    Indeed, Edna also had a strange northward motion for a short period of time. It made an unusual anticyclonic loop, as can be seen below:

     

    Posted Image

     

    The unusual track of TC Edna earlier in this hurricane season.

     

    Sources:

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Edna_2014_track.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Hadi has degenerated into a remnant low this morning, as another substantial increase in shear has totally stripped the convection away from an increasingly weak LLC. Both JTWC and BOM have declared the system a remnant low. The low does have a chance of redevelopment later down the line as it moves northeast across the Coral Sea, as upper level winds could ease once more.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Shear is easing, and convection is making a comeback near the remnant low of Hadi. Latest from JTWC:

     

    AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 19P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.1S 153.4E, APPROXIMATELY 202 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. A 111509Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. AN OLDER 111149Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WITH WEAKER (10 TO 15 KNOT) CORE WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VWS AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATES REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    The remnant low of Hadi is still spinning away out there, currently east of Vanuatu. It is now moving back westwards, so it'll be interesting to see if it begins to reorganise again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT
    IDQ10810Australian Government Bureau of MeteorologyQueenslandTropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral SeaIssued at 2:30 pm EST on Monday 17 March 2014for the period until midnight EST Thursday 20 March 2014.Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:Nil.Potential Cyclones:  At 1pm EST Monday, ex-tropical cyclone Hadi was situated to the northeast ofVanuatu and was moving slowly west. Ex-tropical cyclone Hadi is expected tomove back into the region on Tuesday, and then westards across the Coral Seaduring the remainder of the week. It is not expected to redevelop into atropical cyclone.Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:Tuesday         Very Low   Wednesday       Low        Thursday        Low    
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    Posted
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT

    In their 4 day outlook BOM has Ex-Hadi crossing the Cape and the Gulf and then moving along the north coast of the Top End over the weekend.

     

    Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral SeaIDQ10810Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Queensland

    Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral Sea

    Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 19 March 2014 for the period until midnight EST Saturday 22 March 2014.

    Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:

    Nil.

    Potential Cyclones: 

    At 1pm EST Wednesday, ex-tropical cyclone Hadi was situated in the northern Coral Sea, southeast of Papua New Guinea, and moving in a westwards direction. Ex-tropical cyclone Hadi is expected to continue moving in a general westwards direction towards Cape York Peninsula over the next couple of days, but it is not expected to reform into a tropical cyclone.

    Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:Thursday   Very low Friday   Very low Saturday   Very low

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