Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Prediction Thread 2014 Part 1

[BornFromTheVoid]

It seems that we've likely passed the maximum this year going by most sea ice spatial coverage measures (area/extent). So with the refreeze over, it's time to start looking toward the melt season. The two polls above are based on the NSIDC data, with the first being the daily minimum, and the second being the September mean. Voting is set to private.

 

I might create a new poll every month or so to see how opinions change during the inevitable ups and downs of the melt season.

 

 

Going by the NSIDC extent data the daily maximum extent this year looks like it was 14,960,300km2 on the 20th, making it the 5th lowest maximum on record (since 1979), with the monthly average likely to be the 4th or 5th lowest.

The volume according to PIOMAS was the 3rd lowest on record at the end of February.

 

While this winter looks as though it was around the 2nd mildest on record (though changing the latitude bands may give slightly different values)

 

 

Here are the daily minima from the past 10 years, with the monthly average in brackets.

 

2004:  5,776,080km²(5,989,560)

2005:  5,318,320km²(5,510,020)

2006:  5,748,770km²(5,868,890)

2007:  4,166,740km²(4,280,470)

2008:  4,554,690km²(4,695,040)

2009:  5,054,880km²(5,269,370)

2010:  4,599,180km²(4,872,050)

2011:  4,330,280km²(4,568,180)

2012:  3,369,730km²(3,580,150)

2013:  5,079,390km²(5,235,700)

 

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm thinking that the odds are stacked against a repeat of last summers cloudy, cool, conditions and so have plumped for a sub 3 million end of season ( purely as a wild guess of course!).

 

By late July we should have a much better feel for where the end figure will be so this is just a bit of fun ( for now)!

 

Should we see an early rapid melt/export phase I might even go lower than I have!!! Should we see a Super Nino forming by May then the late season may also turn out to be very interesting?

[be cause]

Goodness .. you optimist GW ..   I predict sub 2 million sq km .. this is based on Cryosphere Today's measurements. 

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi B!

 

This is how I feel going into the season and I reserve the right to flip once we are half way through the season and we see what the spring melt ( top melt dominated) has brought us!!!

 

I believe we will see the peripheral areas erode really fast this year ( allowing rapid warming of the ocean there) so then the thicker, more resilient ice is faced with a choice of staying put ( like last year) or being flushed out into these open water sectors.

 

None of the ice currently in the basin could survive a trip into Fram so 'stuck weather' ( like we have seen a lot of since 07') could lead to massive losses, even if temps stay low, due to export? 

 

And what if we see a year of both high temps and high export (like 07') ?

 

I believe that the first time we re-encounter an 07' 'perfect melt storm' synoptic is the year we'll see the basin go ice free and ,recent such events have been 10 years apart so 2017 looks like it could be the one to drive such an event? With the prospect of a 'strong' El Nino the pack may have two years prior to that under losses dominated by Nino? ( 2010's Nino coincided with the highest volume drop seen and 97's 'super Nino' started the losses resulting in 07' unforecast slump in ice extent/are/volume)

[knocker]

Might need to study this carefully before voting. Could take until October!

 

Press Release: Seasonal Arctic summer ice extent still hard to forecast, study says

 

Will next year’s summer Arctic ice extent be high or low? Can ship captains plan on navigating the famed Northwest Passage—a direct shipping route from Europe to Asia across the Arctic Ocean—to save on time and fuel? A new study says year-to-year forecasts of the Arctic’s summer ice extent are not yet reliable.

 

http://nsidc.org/news/press/2014_seasonalseaice_PR.html

Edited March 27, 2014 by knocker

[BornFromTheVoid]

I don't think it's possible to predict year to year sea ice variability, as it's largely down to the weather and we know how great we are at LRFs!

 

That being said, I went for 3.4 to 3.6 for the daily minimum, and 3.6 to 3.8 for the monthly average, mainly because of winter being so mild. The last 2 times we saw winters similar to this, we had the 2007 and 2012 melt seasons following.

[knocker]

I went for a slightly higher figure than that but as you say it's guesswork regarding the synoptics

 

For what it's worth.

Edited March 31, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Just throw this into the ring.

 

Steffen Tietsche â€@stietsche 11h

Poll amongst #SIPN workshop participants: expected Arctic sea ice Sep extent 4.6 km^2. Thanks Phil Jones for initiating this fun guesscast.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just throw this into the ring.

 

Steffen Tietsche â€@stietsche 11h

Poll amongst #SIPN workshop participants: expected Arctic sea ice Sep extent 4.6 km^2. Thanks Phil Jones for initiating this fun guesscast.

 

Seems we're not too far off that. After 11 votes, the daily minimum average guess is 4.5 million km2, while the monthly mean is 4.7 million km2.

[stewfox]

Goodness .. you optimist GW ..   I predict sub 2 million sq km .. this is based on Cryosphere Today's measurements. 

 

 

More multi year ice with a good start to the season I'm looking at a bit more then last yr say 5.2m

[BornFromTheVoid]

Nearing the end of the month now.

After 15 votes, the average for the daily minimum is 4.2 million km2, with the monthly minimum at 4.4 million km2.

 

I'll probably open up a new poll next week, see if consensus has changed!

[knocker]

Also, here's today's CFSv2 forecast of Arctic sea ice extent around the Sept minimum. Very low. #science #sadface pic.twitter.com/vL5UfBrQk6

Edited April 23, 2014 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

She it!!!! that is low? I'm gonna wait until July before my definitive vote but Gawsh!!! that's a pretty nasty guide ?

[Don]

She it!!!! that is low? I'm gonna wait until July before my definitive vote but Gawsh!!! that's a pretty nasty guide ?

 

Ice?  What Ice?!  Didn't know there was a CFS v2 forecast for Arctic sea ice.

Edited April 25, 2014 by Don