Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[phil nw.]

A brand new thread then to continue discussions on the models as we go into a new month.

 

Current outputs show a warm up from the south during this week but with some rain or showers about.

This off the back of a plume of warm continental air moving north into southern areas on a more southerly flow sandwiched between an Atlantic trough and a blocking high just to our east.

 

Latest runs suggest some cooling at the end of the week as the Atlantic fronts bring in a more westerly flow but with High pressure still showing it's hand over the continent by then it will be interesting to see what the further outlook into next week will be.

 

At the moment a more traditional nw/se type of split looks the more likely prospect but let's see how the 12z runs deal with this later.

 

OK then continue below when ready.

 

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the models are churning out now, lets see what the following week offers

UKMO going for a traditional west/south westerly pattern

 

GFS has the high a little further north so more areas will be dry

Again if the low in the Atlantic gets enough time it could pull some very warm air up from north Africa

Another plume possible next week if we are lucky, this time north eastern areas could get some very warm weather with winds from the South west as opposed to the south east this week.

[Costa Del Fal]

Very respectable GFS 12z churning out now. Lots of light southerly breezes bringing relatively warm uppers in some more temperatures of 15-21c for many beyond the weekend.

[knocker]

Can't see too much to get excited about.

Edited March 31, 2014 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

Very respectable GFS 12z churning out now. Lots of light southerly breezes bringing relatively warm uppers in some more temperatures of 15-21c for many beyond the weekend.

 

Yep very respectable indeed warm southerlies and April showers could be a lot worse 8 day 2m temperature anomaly remains above average UK wide

 

 

Average 2m temps left expected 2m temps right

 

Edited March 31, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Plenty of high temperatures on show this afternoon from GFS could be getting close to or just above 20c quite a few times over the next 2 weeks in some southern parts what a difference a year makes!

 

 

By Saturday the NE sees temperatures rising thanks to the wind switching direction its the east which sees the best temperatures initially

 

 

Temperatures back on the rise widely

 

 

The lowest charts are way out in FI with high pressure over the UK

 

Edited March 31, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

GEM continuing to show pressure rising next week could be looking at a north westerly flow for a time keeping it slightly cooler for the north but the south holds onto the warmth which starts to move back north at the end

 

Edited March 31, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Steve C]

Can't see too much to get excited about.

Maybe not for Cornwall, but it shows decent weather, to my eyes, for a lot of the populace.

[Captain Shortwave]

Conversely the ECM is pretty dire, wet and windy

Could get a northerly as the Azores high retrogresses but I think it would be completely toothless though.

[Summer Sun]

Whilst GEM goes for pressure building on Monday ECM says no instead going for a wet, cooler and windy start

 

 

Out of GFS, ECM and GEM which go to t240 its only ECM which has low pressure over the UK GEM can be viewed here with GFS below

 

Edited March 31, 2014 by Summer Sun

[CongletonHeat]

Conversely the ECM is pretty dire, wet and windy

Could get a northerly as the Azores high retrogresses but I think it would be completely toothless though.

Aye the ECM run is utter garbage, hope that doesn't come off.

[ANYWEATHER]

The Ecm is much more unsettled ,the gfs less so,at T+168 @ day 7.

[Summer Sun]

Tonight's ECM ensemble looks better tonight at day 9 and 10 with pressure rising from the SW

 

 

 

With that rise in pressure temperatures slowly rise from the south

 

[049balt]

Tonight's ECM ensemble looks better tonight at day 9 and 10 with pressure rising from the SW

 

 

 

With that rise in pressure temperatures slowly rise from the south

 

So we now have agreement across the models that pressure will rise during the second week.

[Summer Sun]

So we now have agreement across the models that pressure will rise during the second week.

 

Agreement is getting better now but until its into the t144 range and lower caution is still needed

Edited March 31, 2014 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

Tonight's ECM ensemble looks better tonight at day 9 and 10 with pressure rising from the SW

 

 

 

With that rise in pressure temperatures slowly rise from the south

 

 

Is that the ENS you have posted?

[Winter Cold]

Hope im reading this right, but as its quiet ill have a go.....

 

ECM gets the low accross us to the east next week, bringing in this northerly flow....

 

obviously cooling things down quite a bit

 

 

its a long way off, so we cant be sure yet if week 2 will see a pressure rise or something more akin to this.

[Dancerwithwings]

Hope im reading this right, but as its quiet ill have a go.....

 

ECM gets the low accross us to the east next week, bringing in this northerly flow....

 

obviously cooling things down quite a bit

 

 

its a long way off, so we cant be sure yet if week 2 will see a pressure rise or something more akin to this.

 10/10....Some models are set for been unsettled and the ECM is one of them, But time will tell, when your looking at 10 days... Well have a guess?

[knocker]

The ensemble 850 anomaly

Edited March 31, 2014 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

ECMWF is looking very cool and unsettled from the 7th onwards, bringing a pm flow, with Gales in places..

 

Edited April 1, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

ECMWF is looking very cool and unsettled from the 7th onwards, bringing a pm flow, with Gales in places..

 

That is yesterdays 12z run, something seems to be up this morning. The UKMO is out

 

GEM is slowly trickling out too

 

The others are nowhere to be seen

[Polar Maritime]

That is yesterdays 12z run, something seems to be up this morning. The UKMO is out

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks Captain, it's the 2nd time the ECMWF has had problems in the past week !

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM 00z has kicked out a rather tasty little low for the time of year:

 

1st April 00z ECM +168hrs.gif

 

Plus the GFS is keen on the best part of a month's rain in a week for some areas of Wales, Scotland and the far NW of England:

 

1st April GFS 00z +168hrs Precip Accum.gif

 

Definitely a NW/SE split (for us up here) (for those further south)

 

still yesterdays 12Z, thankfully, hoping ECM is wrong

[Summer Sun]

ECM 00z has kicked out a rather tasty little low for the time of year:

 

1st April 00z ECM +168hrs.gif

 

Plus the GFS is keen on the best part of a month's rain in a week for some areas of Wales, Scotland and the far NW of England:

 

1st April GFS 00z +168hrs Precip Accum.gif

 

Definitely a NW/SE split (for us up here) (for those further south)

 

Thats yesterday's ECM the 00z hasn't updated yet

 

EDIT it has on wetterzentral

 

Continues to take the unsettled route

 

Edited April 1, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z op run looks relatively much colder beyond T+168 hours with increasingly wintry synoptics with a scandi trough, beyond T+240 would become even colder..funny if we get a white easter,