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Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

WOW 22 c 72 f in the south east today..at least 21 c again tomorrow but closer to 18 c by thursday..more like early summer than early spring..and dust from the sahara desertPosted Image

 

Enjoy the warmth if you have it because a general breakdown to atlantic wind and rain is on the way from friday onwards.

 

20c according to BBC weather is today's highest

 

Looks like Charlwood in Surrey was today's warmest spot reaching a balmy 20C, whilst Salsburgh in Lanarkshire only mustered a chilly 5.7C

 

GFS 850 ensembles showing the lowest 850's next Tuesday before a rise

 

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Looks like 2 or 3 days of cooler weather before temperatures recover going above normal once more for most

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

20c according to BBC weather is today's highest

 

Looks like Charlwood in Surrey was today's warmest spot reaching a balmy 20C, whilst Salsburgh in Lanarkshire only mustered a chilly 5.7C

nope it was 22c according to tomas shaffinakerPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

nope it was 22c according to tomas shaffinakerPosted Image

Just a little of topic !!!Posted Image Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Good ensemble agreement on heights building during the middle of next week

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 00z op run shows the warm weather persisting across the south / se until the end of the week with northern uk finally trending milder as they pick up a sw'ly airflow, becoming breezier everywhere with temperatures drifting down to around 15 c 59 f which is still very respectable for early april with eventually much less of a difference temperature wise between the north and south. Into next week, a cooler changeable spell, especially for the north and east as a trough transfers into scandinavia but high pressure building in from the south west and then becoming more generally settled, especially by Easter...Good Friday looks like a very good friday on this run.Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z is showing pretty much the same as the gfs with a cooler wnw'ly flow pushing in early next week with the most unsettled weather across the north, high pressure waiting in the wings to the south west and gradually settling down again for the south with a brief risk of slight frosts, a traditional north / south split then developing, the north staying breezier and more unsettled but gradually becoming milder again nationwide after the cooler blip.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

The difference is really stark between the ecm and gfs at day 10/T+240, shows again that model inconsistency that far out, just goes to show why its called "fantasy island"Posted Image

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM and UKMO pretty close at t144 this morning

 

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GFS isn't too far behind either

 

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8 day 2m temperature anomaly from GFS remains above average

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Looking at the ECMWF for next week starting on Sunday. The first couple of days have low pressure to the NW and High to the SE with the UK the sandwich filling in a fresh south westerly airstream.

 

By Tuesday the low has nudged it’s way into Scotland with the wind veering more westerly but still fresh. This is but a brief victory as the high pressure kicks it out of the way and by Wednesday and dominates for the next couple of days.

 

In fact for the rest of the week really although by Friday and especially Saturday it’s weakened and retreated SE giving a more southerly flow over the UK.

 

This gives fairly average temps at the beginning of the week especially in the west but these will pick up as the week progresses and by the end we could be looking at 18-19 in the east but still around 12-14 in Cornwall and about the same up north although around Shawbury could be 17C

 

To sum up the 850 hPa temp anomaly and the 500 hPa Geopotential Height anomaly until Saturday the 12th.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

After a cold week in parts of the east and north east it will become warmer from Saturday according to GFS

 

Saturday sees south westerly winds replacing the east to south easterlies of this week with this some of the lowest temperatures transfer to the west and the east sees temperatures into the mid teens

 

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A similar pictures on Sunday with some of the lowest temperatures in the west and the east sees temperatures into the mid to high teens possibly 20c in the south

 

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Its a warm start to next week as well away from some north western parts with south westerly winds staying allowing temperatures in the east to rise possibly hitting 22c in some parts

 

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Tuesday then sees  low pressure over Scotland more settled the further south you are, cooler in the north but staying warm in the far south (mid 20s in parts France as the heat builds for them)

 

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By Wednesday the high builds for the UK temperatures recover to the mid teens for the midlands south high teens possible for the far south still single figures for some in Scotland

 

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Over the next 8 days the GFS 2m temperature anomaly shows temperatures staying above normal for the UK and a lot of Europe

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Yes by the weekend and into next week the models are showing a return to a more westerly pattern so the air quality should improve after tomorrow as we finally lose that se continental drift.

 

We can see on Fridays fax the change moving in from the Atlantic as frontal systems carry some rain and showers across the country washing out the dust and pollution as the flow turns into the sw.

 

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After that we look like developing that nw/se split we often talk about with low pressure and fronts closer to Scotland and N.ireland and the continental high pressure never too far from the south.

 

The ens means for this time next week show the weaker jet which has been straddling the country starting to move north as the High builds into the south of the UK.

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so whilst the next few days still look rather changeable with some showery rain about,as we go into next week it looks much better as fine conditions start to move further north.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

Another April 2011 would be nice, not sure it will be that warm though ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS builds pressure at t144

 

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Where as UKMO is slower keeping a rise in pressure reserved for the 2nd half of next week

 

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Unless ECM moves to GFS this evening I think we'll see GFS pushing the rise in pressure back to the 2nd half of next week bringing it in line with the met offices thought's in today's text update

 

GFS 2m temperature anomaly remains above average

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM showing an unsettled start to next week with it turning cooler for all by Tuesday pressure starts to build mid week

 

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

If you look at both gfs and ecm at day 7 and 10 you will see a dramatic difference in there output, anyway Looking changeable to unsettled in the near time frame.....But at least some fresh air from the AtlanticPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The weight of evidence is for settled weather to gradually assert itself.Posted Image

 

And from Friday fresher air off the Atlantic shifting all this pollution, smog & dust by Saturday

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

High Pressure never stood a chance of building in and gaining a foothold during the revolting disgusting winter we endured with the sheer power of the jetstream fueled by the bitter cold sweeping south across the northern us clashing with the tropical airmass to the south with the PFJ generally to the south of the uk but things have changed significantly in recent times. The jetstream has weakened considerably and enabled the azores high to build north eastwards across the uk at times, hopefully a sign of things to come as we approach summer. The Gfs 00z shows a nw / se split with relatively weaker depressions much further to the north west and north of the uk and the azores / continental anticyclones having a lot more influence across at least the south eastern half of the uk. The bottom line is, high pressure firmly has the upper hand now.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

ECMWF is still showing a pesky little low pressure system moving across the UK on the 8th. Something to keep an eye on..

 

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Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z shows another nice pressure rise from T+144 hours which could last for several days, becoming warmer too after the cooler unsettled blip.Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO coming on board now for a mid week pressure rise

 

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GFS 8 day 2m temperature anomaly remains above average

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ECMWF is similar to yesterday for beginning of the week with a low 985mb off the east coast of Scotland 00z Tues with high pressure to the south west of Cornwall giving a strong WNW flow over the UK. This follows a quite unsettled weekend in these parts with bands of rain nipping through.

 

By Wednesday the low has popped off east and the high has moved over the UK where it remains on Thursday but is in transition and the high pressure is over Scandinavia by the weekend with a slack low pressure area over the UK but a deep low to the west is stretching it's tentacles into Scotland by Sunday.

 

A couple of EPS anomaly charts until Sat 12th.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 06z op run shows the atlantic never really breaking through across the southern half of the uk, only really across the more northern / north western parts of the uk with high pressure always close to the south or in full control of the south eastern half of the BI. Temperatures staying on the warm side of average for the most part, the further south / se you are, 15-16 celsius and nearer 18-20 c during the next few days, more like early summer than so early in spring...unlike last year, we have a decent spring this year which has potential to become even better with frequent ridging in of the azores high, bolstered by higher pressure across the near continent. It looks like a typical nw / se split to me with northwestern uk being relatively cooler, breezier / windier with most of the rain and showers but with occasional spells of fine weather too but by far the best weather further to the south and east.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Compared with my assessment yesterday, the models are showing a quicker evolution into the westerly type that I had indicated for around the 20th- for example the ECMWF ensemble mean has us in a cyclonic south-westerly type by the 13th:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

 

This suggests that the duration of the dry sunny anticyclonic spell starting on the 8th/9th is open to question, and could be revised further either way over the coming few days.  The NOAA 8-14 day outlook for the 10th-16th April has above-average heights to the east and below-average heights to the west, perhaps suggesting high pressure retreating eastwards over the period allowing westerlies to come in around mid-month, which, if it is right, would point towards the models being a bit over-progressive.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

 

Otherwise I don't have much to add to yesterday's assessment.

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