Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[Summer Sun]

The shorter term outlook also talking about pressure rising W/C the 14th particularly across southern areas this is what the GFS 00z ensemble had

 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO 12z showing pressure rising from the south west on Tuesday, virtually UK wide on Wednesday and it remains over all of England and wales on Thursday

 

 

GFS taking the same route and it keeps the high going into next weekend

 

Edited April 4, 2014 by Summer Sun

[049balt]

UKMO 12z showing pressure rising from the south west on Tuesday, virtually UK wide on Wednesday and it remains over all of England and wales on Thursday

 

 

GFS taking the same route and it keeps the high going into next weekend

 

As the days progress so does the potential for more good weather.

[Summer Sun]

As the days progress so does the potential for more good weather.

 

Indeed out to a week Sunday now and the high remains

 

 

Edited April 4, 2014 by Summer Sun

[picog]

Indeed out to a week Sunday now and the high remains

 

 

There will be talk of a drought soon. Even the ensembles have "dried up" today!

Edited April 4, 2014 by picog

[049balt]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

 

Looking good

[049balt]

Latest gfs update will please every one except those still looking for snow.

Edited April 4, 2014 by 049balt

[Summer Sun]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

 

Looking good

 

Indeed and continued signals for above average 2m temperatures

 

[049balt]

Indeed and continued signals for above average 2m temperatures

 

What a difference a year makes.

[Summer Sun]

ECM maintaining the trend towards high pressure building in during Tuesday and more widespread by Wednesday

 

 

Unlike GFS, ECM is sticking to its 00z run by turning less settled later next week

 

 

High pressure has another go

 

 

GFS goes for a more prolonged spell of high pressure whilst ECM going for a mixed spell of some settled days and some unsettled ones which is fairly normal for the time of year

Edited April 4, 2014 by Summer Sun

[ANYWEATHER]

A very changeable outlook, the North getting the worst of the weather, so in summery, from gfs and ecm  much springlike weather to be had, but even for the south some unsettled conditions at times.....High pressure never gets to hold on in the more reliable timeframe .and anyone who thinks that high pressure is the true form .needs to look at the models.......

[049balt]

A very changeable outlook, the North getting the worst of the weather, so in summery, from gfs and ecm  much springlike weather to be had, but even for the south some unsettled conditions at times.....High pressure never gets to hold on in the more reliable timeframe .and anyone who thinks that high pressure is the true form .needs to look at the models.......

I have been looking at the models and I see High pressure is the most dominant theme going forward even the met office have now come in line.

[ANYWEATHER]

I have been looking at the models and I see High pressure is the most dominant theme going forward even the met office have now come in line.

Well, youre wrong .High pressure is not the dominant theme,  look at the models from gfs and ecm  and show me some proof.....Please!

[049balt]

ECM maintaining the trend towards high pressure building in during Tuesday and more widespread by Wednesday

 

 

Unlike GFS, ECM is sticking to its 00z run by turning less settled later next week

 

 

High pressure has another go

 

 

GFS goes for a more prolonged spell of high pressure whilst ECM going for a mixed spell of some settled days and some unsettled ones which is fairly normal for the time of year

Here.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well, youre wrong .High pressure is not the dominant theme,  look at the models from gfs and ecm  and show me some proof.....Please!

Well the GFS has high pressure near or over the UK from day 4

Apart from the high shifting position and allowing some weak fronts come round the high, it's pretty settled. North has some rain at times and the south barely has any.

 

ECM is similar, mean surface pressure remains above 1010mb for most of the UK from day 4, south driest and warmest with some rain at times for the north. Looks settled for the south and rainfall in the north will be more nuisance value than anything else.

 

Overall a rather unspectacular spell coming up with average temperatures and variable amounts of sunshine. If the cloud breaks in any milder periods the temperatures could rise close to 20C, but more the low to mid-teens generally. In any clearer, cooler periods we could still get a touch of frost in sheltered areas.

 

Edit - Rainfall charts show most of the UK (except Western Scotland) to be pretty much bone dry after the 8th April. That would suggest settled weather for most of the UK.

Edited April 4, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[ANYWEATHER]

Here.

That's proof . Dear Oh Dear!!!

[Summer Sun]

ECM may not be showing a prolonged period of high pressure but the further south you are it will still be fairly bright with limited rain yes temperatures will be lower than of late but they'll still be respectable for the time of year

 

London

 

 

Birmingham

 

Edited April 4, 2014 by Summer Sun

[phil nw.]

It looks like an improving picture as we go into next week.

We do have some rain and showers crossing the UK over the weekend as the Atlantic low and fronts move in.

Fax for Sunday 12z

 

these gradually clearing and by midweek onwards the models show a nice build of pressure across the UK as the jet moves further north.

 

 

It looks like we are then heading for mid-latitude heights across from the Azores into W.Europe for a while with frequent ridging into the south.The far north and north west of the UK still liable to cloud and rain at times as fronts move across from time to time from low pressure around Iceland.

 

 

so the best of the weather further south so, although it.s not wall to wall sunshine nationwide, away from nw areas a lot of dry and bright weather looks likely after Monday.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_Aberdeen_avn.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_Manchester_avn.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_London_avn.png

 

as supported by the ensemble graphs above.

[049balt]

That's proof . Dear Oh Dear!!!

Agreed it is not proof but just a forecast, I am looking at the medium term where indications are looking good.

[Costa Del Fal]

A very changeable outlook, the North getting the worst of the weather, so in summery, from gfs and ecm  much springlike weather to be had, but even for the south some unsettled conditions at times.....High pressure never gets to hold on in the more reliable timeframe .and anyone who thinks that high pressure is the true form .needs to look at the models.......

Wouldnt you argue that for most that whilst not a total grip on the country, that HP actually dominates more than any LP? I would like to see evidence for such LP otherwise. Not 100% dry by any means but away from Scotland, perhaps not quite the picture you make out to me but thats just my opinion. 

[Frosty.]

I have followed the met in the past and they are generally poor beyond a week, this has been the best place for picking up trends, remember last July's heat wave, it was picked up here first !

This is very unfair on the brilliant met office, we are amateur enthusiasts, the met office are the EXPERTS!!

[Summer Sun]

It was nice to hear Peter Gibbs talking about high pressure building in next week after an unsettled few days (mainly today till Monday) what he didn't mention was how long it would last, this mornings UKMO shows low pressure coming in at t144 though the further south west you are it could stay more settled as you'll be closer to the high out in the Atlantic

 

 

After a few unsettled days on ECM (again the further south / south west you are it could stay more settled as you'll be closer to the high out in the Atlantic) it turns more settled once more

 

 

Day 9 & 10 sees pressure building back in for all

 

 

GFS 8 day 2m temperature anomaly remains unchanged staying above normal for all

 

Edited April 5, 2014 by Summer Sun

[draztik]

Looking at the mid term and further into April; extended ecm indicates days 10-15, will be average with a fairly neutral temp anomaly with broadly westerly's/NW flow. CFS ens go negative, with days 15-25 below for all. Whether it pans out like this, who knows.

ecm 10/15 temp anom. Cfs 15/25 temp anom.

Edited April 5, 2014 by draztik

[bluearmy]

looks to me that the broad set up is azores ridge poking its way ne with break away ridges transferring west to east as cold fronts move nw/se from parent depressions moving west to east to our north. that promises a range of surface conditions, mainly fair though with possible less settled interludes, notable precip more likely the further north you are. temps mainly  just above average, though possible warmer periods as we see southerlies as cut off lows drop in to our sw from time to time in conjunction with the transient highs moving to our east. all in all, a pleasant spring outlook though the north of the uk may beg to differ at times and potential hanging frontal systems down the western side as we have seen during the past week cannot be ruled out.

[damianslaw]

It remains a fairly changeable outlook in the immediate future turning generally more settled by middle of next week away from the far NW thanks to the influence of the azores high which will be ridging NE towards SW England. However, there remains a degree of uncertainty how robust these heights will be and whether they manage to get a proper foothold or are squeezed back SW due to lower heights and trough action to our NW being a more dominant force.

 

Its a classic westerly pattern where you get weak ridge followed by trough, and it does look quite a fluid pattern despite the Jetstream tracking further NW.

 

In overview, a fairly typical outlook for the time of year, temperatures however will stay on the above side of average notably so in the south, but under cloud and rain it won't feel very springlike. Further north temperatures closer or at average but generally less in the way of sunshine and dry conditions.

 

I thought this April would offer up a few surprises synoptic wise, I guess we have had quite an unusual pattern this last week, with low heights coming unstuck to our SW despite a rather weak high pressure force to our NE. The second half of April could throw up a few surprises though as the PV will finally be in retreat and wane from its resident Canadian home - might we see elusive height rises to our NW? and an elusive flow from the north - often happens as we reach late April.