Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

[Anthony81]

I hate this cool breezy benign weather at the moment would of easily traded a cool april for a warm may I hope may is not a write off, it's the last day of the football season we should be basking in warm may sunshine not overcast cool easterly winds.

 

certain posters hoping for a cold northerly wind at this time of yr need to go into hibernation for the rest of the month, you'd think they would learn from the god awful winter we had, but sorry hoping for cold in a traditional mid-late british spring time you must be on a wind up or something.

Edited May 11, 2014 by Anthony81

[William of Walworth]

Feeling highly grumpy about recent model output in the main discussion thread -- the vast majority of recent output threatening  a wet and unsettled week next week (albeit mainly not especially cold) My main fear is that these conditions will last into the Bank Holiday weekend, and that we are threatened with a stick around trough/LP that can't be shifted for the forseeable.

 

Still time to hope(cast) for some sort of weakening of the unsettled/trough dominated stuff in time for Bank Holiday weekend, but precious few signs of this yet. 

 

Washout Bank Holiday w/e risk is high for now, and every time I check the updates, there's very little positive positive there, indeed most recent runs have shown downgrades from the previous. And Frosty isn't posting at all ATM, and Milhouse very little = i.e. no optimism around!

 

Grrr!

Edited May 13, 2014 by William of Walworth

[Costa Del Fal]

Indeed great the rest of this week till Sunday but then it just looks disgusting with everyone but the UK enjoying early summer. Typical. Hope to god it doesnt get stuck there but does look like its in no hurry to move.

[simshady]

Nice and cool this morning......sunny too with a slight frost in the shade. Let's hope it stays coolish as we enter Summertime. I don't mind a few warm days but too hot and dry is just a no no.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The previous spell of "unsettled" weather demonstrated two main facets of it pretty well- at my location the weekend was mostly cloudy, showery and breezy, but Monday and Tuesday were bright days with scattered sharp showers (though I missed out on the thunder, due to the hit-and-miss nature of thundery downpours) and it felt quite warm in the sun.

 

Now I'm seeing the two main facets of "settled" weather- yesterday was a warm dry sunny day and I went for two pleasant walks, but today, there has been a constant stratocumulus sheet associated with a weak front moving south-eastwards into the high.  It's one of those where a fair number of people, of the type that regard sunshine as a higher priority than dry weather, end up wondering, "Why is today the worst day of the week so far, when we were told that it would be 'bad' weather until Tuesday and then 'good' weather from Wednesday onwards?  After yesterday's scrumptious weather we thought it would continue like that!"

 

I get the impression that nothing will dent the widespread assumption that high pressure = warm, sunny and dry, low pressure = cool, dull and wet, though!

Edited May 15, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[William of Walworth]

I take your point TWS but on latest output, I'm actually expecting a fair amount of  (humid) sunshine between the promised downpours next week, and the previous Bank Holiday weekend reminded us that High Pressure could mean a pretty cloudy High. But given that this is the Moan thread, it's now starting to shape up for a pretty wet week at times after Sunday for many. Peoples' excitement about thundery outbreaks leaves me cold .. I'd rather have a dull cloudy cool High personally!

[Tony27]

totally gone off warm/hot weather these past couple of years, i used to love hot weather but these days i struggle to cope even with temps like today, we have about another 5 months to get through of this sadly, mild/warm weather is seriously underestimated by people in this country, how many days a year do we get cold snowy weather and how many days a year do we get warm/muggy days like today? 

 

i am a bit like lazerguy now, although i prefer darkness i don't hate sunshine, i just hate temps above 20c

Edited May 16, 2014 by Tony27

[I remember Atlantic 252]

totally gone off warm/hot weather these past couple of years, i used to love hot weather but these days i struggle to cope even with temps like today, we have about another 5 months to get through of this sadly, mild/warm weather is seriously underestimated by people in this country, how many days a year do we get cold snowy weather and how many days a year do we get warm/muggy days like today? 

 

i am a bit like lazerguy now, although i prefer darkness i don't hate sunshine, i just hate temps above 20c

 

Same with me., im more of a laserguy/simshady, not keen on sunshine either

[Tony27]

problem is i like growing veg and we need good weather for veg,

[Bobby]

Not a fan of sunny and very warm/hot either, especially if its humid. Hot and humid is just suffering, only worth enduring that if you get good thunderstorms. Don't like prolonged dry weather either. Everything dusty, grass yellow, streams dried up is depressing. Give me a good autumn gale and driving rain any day over that.

[knocker]

Sometimes, reading stuff on here, I wonder if people have lost touch with reality. Talk of the weather in July and August is ludicrous, one might just as well read Charles Dodgson. when one considers the models have struggled with next weeks weather of late. The jet stream has been in such a spin that some veteran meteorologists in the States say they cannot remember anything like it and the weather over there rather proves the point. get real.

[simshady]

I don't like this weather at the moment. I can put up with it for a few days to a week at the most but it just makes me uncomfortable and grumpy (more than I usually am!)

 

I also don't begrudge the fondness that people have for warm/hot weather, each to their own, but personally I can't wait for it to cool down and to darken earlier of an evening. I have a hatred of warm, muggy weather  that's uncomfortable to sleep in so next week could be tough. It's so difficult to get a good cold spell in this country....if only I could move to Norway or somewhere in Canada

 

I suppose my favourite would be cold and clear as we had in the 2010 winter. 

[simshady]

I'm quite strange when it comes to weather preference. I often like it either very warm or very cold and I can't stand moderate temperatures (ie: from around 5C to 15C) especially when you add rain and wind to the mix. That is why I absolutely hate Autumn because it is too cold to enjoy the warmth and sun and too mild for snow and is generally just unsettled, wet and windy.

 

Good news for you though, we are only just over a month from the solstice so nights will start to get shorter soon. If I was to give my idea of a good year it would be a winter like 2010, followed by a hot, thundery summer.

 

I don't think any weather preference is strange tbh. I like cold, some people don't. Some like hot, some don't. I love the descent into darker nights into Autumn and Winter.....especially if we get a good one!

[summer blizzard]

Only Lazerguy beats me for strange in summer.

Basically I like hot and dry in May and June but then want a complete collapse into cool and wet.

I can't stand humdity.

[phil nw.]

Remember guys this thread is for chat/moans/ramps about the model outputs.

Whilst this is a more relaxed model discussion thread views about the your weather preferences should still be linked to the model outputs please.

Of course you can always go here

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80006-what-do-you-want-from-summer-2014/

 

or your regional thread for more general chat or views about the weather. 

[mushymanrob]

nobody got anything to moan about?.... how strange.well after a pretty dire few days, the week ahead looks pretty crap too , has another washout summer already started?

[phil nw.]

nobody got anything to moan about?.... how strange.well after a pretty dire few days, the week ahead looks pretty crap too , has another washout summer already started?

Yes we have had enough of this trough over NW Europe now Mushy but as you said we  have more rain to come this coming week.

I am looking for the Azores High to offer some relief as attempts to ridge towards us around Fri/Sat.

As for Summer who knows?

[AderynCoch]

I just want to know why only the crappy weather patterns like this one seem to get "locked in". Why couldn't the pattern have become "locked in" a week ago when it was warm and sunny?

[mushymanrob]

Yes we have had enough of this trough over NW Europe now Mushy but as you said we  have more rain to come this coming week.

I am looking for the Azores High to offer some relief as attempts to ridge towards us around Fri/Sat.

As for Summer who knows?

 

yeah another dried interlude should become manifest, but the ecm anomaly suggests the jet diving into france/spain so a showery low close to our southwest looks pretty likely so the pattern continues.

its not necessarily a bad pattern IF the troughs or cut off lows are far enough to our southwest, a humid southeasterly would be nice enough. id prefer the azores to displace and drift eastwards, and link with the scandi high like it did last weekend.

 

btw.... i wasnt 'writing off summer', i was highlighting the general pattern that has recurred several times this year and could well do so again.

[mushymanrob]

I just want to know why only the crappy weather patterns like this one seem to get "locked in". Why couldn't the pattern have become "locked in" a week ago when it was warm and sunny?

 

well as i understand it, the cut off low can get locked in, held in its general position by 2 (or more) strong highs, without the jet stream it has nowhere much to go until pressure drops somewhere to allow it to exit.but warm dry sunny patterns can get stuck, they did in 75, 76, 83, 95, 03, etc etc...

[Milhouse]

We need to get high pressure over the near continent asap. While there is low pressure there it seems to act as a magnet drawing low pressure from across the Atlantic right over the UK. Good job the jet is rather slow and sluggish at the moment allowing drier spells inbetween.

[stainesbloke]

Don't mind some showers and I love a good storm but please, warm up I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad! 12C yesterday and 17C today is pretty pathetic for London at the end of May. Funny how the warmth doesn't seem to get 'locked in' like the endless cold troughs just happen to do. Moan over lol.

[DTHFCJ]

a total weekend washout here first for a while il admit but looking at next week and thereafter it looks like there will be more of the same to come what a total waste of daylight grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[minus 9]

Why

[I remember Atlantic 252]

nobody got anything to moan about?.... how strange.well after a pretty dire few days, the week ahead looks pretty crap too , has another washout summer already started?

 

Whit week is probably the most unsettled week of the year, my early guesses for summer is an unsettled June, gradually improving after wimbledon, Aug to be the most settled/sunniest