Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

[Costa Del Fal]

Whit week is probably the most unsettled week of the year, my early guesses for summer is an unsettled June, gradually improving after wimbledon, Aug to be the most settled/sunniest

Any evidence for this unsubstantiated claim thus far?

 

Generally the Atlantic is pretty quiet at this time of year but its just unfortunate right now the trough is stuck in our vicinity.

[Captain Shortwave]

Whit week is probably the most unsettled week of the year, my early guesses for summer is an unsettled June, gradually improving after wimbledon, Aug to be the most settled/sunniest

I guess you have forgotten about January and February then 

[MP-R]

It would be interesting to know which Bank Holiday in the year is on average most unsettled. I'm inclined to say the May Day Bank Holiday. That's probably a theme for another thread though.

 

As for the models, I'm slightly depressed if the current models are anywhere close to the mark. I have a friend visiting from France from the 5th-8th June and it would be nice to have at least dry and warm weather. I really don't need his idea that it always rains in England reinforced!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I guess you have forgotten about January and February then 

 

for my location Jan and Feb were not too wet, just average really, May has been wetter

[AderynCoch]

It would be interesting to know which Bank Holiday in the year is on average most unsettled. I'm inclined to say the May Day Bank Holiday. That's probably a theme for another thread though.

 

As for the models, I'm slightly depressed if the current models are anywhere close to the mark. I have a friend visiting from France from the 5th-8th June and it would be nice to have at least dry and warm weather. I really don't need his idea that it always rains in England reinforced!!

I've had this problem myself. I have a friend from France who moved to England in 2007 and had a very hard time convincing him that the run of horrible summers which followed was highly unusual rather than being the norm.

 

The thing with stereotypes is that people will subconsciously seek conformation bias to back them up. If somebody comes to this country when it's hot and sunny they will declare it to be unusual, whereas someone who turns up during a cold, wet spell will have their preconceptions reinforced.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

It would be interesting to know which Bank Holiday in the year is on average most unsettled. I'm inclined to say the May Day Bank Holiday. That's probably a theme for another thread though.

 

As for the models, I'm slightly depressed if the current models are anywhere close to the mark. I have a friend visiting from France from the 5th-8th June and it would be nice to have at least dry and warm weather. I really don't need his idea that it always rains in England reinforced!!

 

May day one never too bad, its Whit the worst one, Aug usually the most settled

[MP-R]

Here's a list of unsettled Bank Holidays since I began recording, and it does indeed seem to be that the Whit Bank Holiday is the most disappointing. 2002 managed to avoid this list as the holiday was moved to the first weekend in June which was warm and sunny. Equally, 2012 did creep in as if it had happened on the correct weekend the weather would have been beautiful.

 

May Day: 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012

Whit: 2003, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

August: 2004, 2006, 2012

 

This weekend really has been pretty awful though apart from yesterday afternoon. Hopefully the drier and sunnier weekend forecast will come off.

[TwisterGirl81]

I'm wearing a cardigan and it's nearly June!!  No wonder English weather has a notorious reputation! Please can we just have normal seasonal weather, we never know where we stand

[snow freak]

this summer is so far becoming a continuation of the past winter.  Cool and wet.  They say the most interesting thing about the British weather is its unpredicatability, but i hate it.  I just wish for once we would have reliable stable weather for a few months and able to plan things.  It's not surprising the ancient Romans hated Britain and its weather.  I do too...and I'm a native.

i also had to put the heating on yesterday.  it felt more like Autumn than early Summer.

[stainesbloke]

Another day of grey, damp skies and a sweltering 13C max here. Absolutely horrendous. At least we're not the only ones suffering, much of NW Europe is just as crap. I do hope we will get some warm, sunny days to balance this rubbish out.

[Eugene]

Another day of grey, damp skies and a sweltering 13C max here. Absolutely horrendous. At least we're not the only ones suffering, much of NW Europe is just as crap. I do hope we will get some warm, sunny days to balance this rubbish out.

 

 

Yes and today brought more of the same but even cooler feeling, really dark now, incredible for just past 6 pm in late May, this weeks weather really makes a mockery of posts like this from last week,

 

 

There will be some rain around at times but in any sunnier periods it should feel quite warm

 

 

It's felt anything but warm this week.

[Scorcher]

It hasn't felt warm most of the time Eugene but the post does say 'in any sunnier periods'- we had some here yesterday and it did indeed feel warmer. Under the cloud though today it has felt thoroughly miserable.

[Frank Trough]

oh no! start preparing your Ark and book that mediterranean break - SP1986 is posting in the MOD! it's 2012 all over again - all we need now is shedhead finding the worst GFS ensemble and we've made it

 

I don't care if it is synoptically different but viewing the model output ("can that trough really stay there until t+384?") and reading MOD it certainly feels like a repeat all over again.

 

The rain is just crippling - everywhere is saturated again, garden full of slugs, rivers and estuaries the colour of tea.

 

Surely this is just a little phase we have to get through?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

oh no! start preparing your Ark and book that mediterranean break - SP1986 is posting in the MOD! it's 2012 all over again - all we need now is shedhead finding the worst GFS ensemble and we've made it

 

I don't care if it is synoptically different but viewing the model output ("can that trough really stay there until t+384?") and reading MOD it certainly feels like a repeat all over again.

 

The rain is just crippling - everywhere is saturated again, garden full of slugs, rivers and estuaries the colour of tea.

 

Surely this is just a little phase we have to get through?

 

make it worse Steve Murr back with 240 ECM charts! as if they will come off for god's sake

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Why do we have a big stupid ocean next to us? Why can't we have a continental climate? This country would be some much better if it did! Proper cold snowy winters and hot, sunny and thundery summers! But no, we have to put up with the Atlantic's mild, drizzly crap all year.

 

wish the Atlantic would dominate more in summer? if we had a fast jet, then rain wouldnt last long, summer tends to be wetter as the troughs do not move west to east quick, Atlantic not in charge now, and is pants weather for summer fans

[Milhouse]

Yeah its rubbish now but it has been one of the warmest Springs on record so some perspective is needed. Nice at the weekend for most but turning pants next week. Hopefully the ECM is on to something right at the end.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yeah its rubbish now but it has been one of the warmest Springs on record so some perspective is needed. Nice at the weekend for most but turning pants next week. Hopefully the ECM is on to something right at the end.

 

Sunday pants for western areas, bbc giving me rain

[AderynCoch]

Yeah its rubbish now but it has been one of the warmest Springs on record so some perspective is needed.

I have to disagree. It's been one of the warmest springs on record in spite of the actual weather that has entailed rather than because of it. How much truly warm, summery weather have we had that would be befitting of an exceptionally warm spring? Not that much really. Yes, the middle of this month was nice but not out of place in an average spring (i.e. one of warmer and colder spells). A few warm, sunny days is the least we should expect. This spring has been consistently mild, offering nothing remotely wintry but hardly venturing towards the other extreme either.

 

Overall 2014 has been a very bland year so far. I'd give it 2/10 at a stretch, with the 19th of this month preventing it from being 1/10 at best.

[Milhouse]

I have to disagree. It's been one of the warmest springs on record in spite of the actual weather that has entailed rather than because of it. How much truly warm, summery weather have we had that would be befitting of an exceptionally warm spring? Not that much really. Yes, the middle of this month was nice but not out of place in an average spring (i.e. one of warmer and colder spells). A few warm, sunny days is the least we should expect. This spring has been consistently mild, offering nothing remotely wintry but hardly venturing towards the other extreme either.

 

Overall 2014 has been a very bland year so far. I'd give it 2/10 at a stretch, with the 19th of this month preventing it from being 1/10 at best.

 

I do agree to an extent. It has been the absence of any cold weather that has produced the significantly above average months thus far rather than any spells of notable warmth. But i dont like cold in Spring so its been quite good from a personal point of view as temperatures have consistently been in the comfortable category. Was nice and warm round about a week ago as well.

[Mark Neal.]

Depressing drizzly rain with heavier bursts from time to time since Monday morning, this weather is yuck. Give me Westerly showery regime over this any day of the week, at least we have some decent weather to end the week and into the weekend, some welcome respite. 

[conor123]

Bah the weekend doesn't look that good at all now, these unwanted 'convective showers' forecast for Saturday would never happen anyway, it just means come 10am there's a 90% coverage of statrocumulus that lasts till the evening. And now Sunday which was showing as 23c and sunny spells yesterday morning, another miserable drizzlefest.

[mushymanrob]

after one of the worst weeks in may i can remember, the anomaly charts dont hold out any hope of anything different well into june.who would bet that another wet summer ISNT likely?

[stainesbloke]

Some truly depressing model output this morning! This weekend looks like a 'one day wonder' (Saturday) now before more stubborn troughing moves in near or on top of the UK for the foreseeable. GFS shows the NW as getting the better weather whilst ECM offers small crumbs of something warmer in its last frames.

[Frank Trough]

after one of the worst weeks in may i can remember, the anomaly charts dont hold out any hope of anything different well into june.who would bet that another wet summer ISNT likely?

 

I think perhaps last year may have been a case of "the monsoons rains failed this year" rather than any kind of glimmer of real hope.  

[Tim M]

Sun went in mid Monday morning. Rained non-stop to varying degrees since, 72hrs now. Seriously not sure if I will see the sun in Mansfield for 2 weeks looking at model output. Not sure where NW forecast gets its sun for weekend from.