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Arctic Ice Discussion 2014: the thaw...


reef
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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

    As it looks like we've passed the peak for Arctic Ice for another year, here's a new thread for the discussion of the 2014 melt season.

     

    A few links:

     

    IJIS: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

     

    Cryosphere: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

     

    PIOMAS: http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b01a73d8a0fc5970d-pi

     

    DMI Temps: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

     

     

    As always please be respectful of other people and avoid bickering.

     

    Thanks.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    We kick of the melt season, according to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, with the joint mildest March for north of 70N, and the mildest Jan-Mar on record for north of 70N.

    March

    Posted Image

    Jan-Mar

    Posted Image

    Should be interesting to see if the UAH data agrees.

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    Posted
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York

    It appears that multiyear ice has again shown an increase this year which maywell bode well for the coming melt

    Link http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/03/sea-ice-news-volume-5-number-1-multiyear-ice-on-the-rise/#more-106888

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Yup, the reduced export through Fram is one of the few positives to come from the winter, helping to hold in some of the thicker ice, but not enough to boost the overall volume.

    Recently though, the wind patterns have switched and export has grown a lot, which explains much of the gains in the Barents sea in the last few weeks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

    It appears that multiyear ice has again shown an increase this year which maywell bode well for the coming melt

    Link http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/03/sea-ice-news-volume-5-number-1-multiyear-ice-on-the-rise/#more-106888

     

    Its going to take a brave man to call it this year

     

    I'm thinking of a small increase on last year much will depend on the weather

     

    ------------------------

    Results from the study also suggest that while ice conditions during the previous winter are an important predictor (such as the fraction of first-year versus multiyear ice), summer weather patterns also have a large impact on the amount of ice that will be left at the end

    -----------------

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    I do not believe that we have any ice that could survive full sun all summer below 80n without melt out? Last year showed us all just how important weather and ice positioning is in the melt season. Cyclones over the pole keep the ice cloud covered and above 80n increasing it's chances of survival.

     

    Any HP over Beaufort invites the prospect of an invigorated trans polar drift and the melt of of the Pacific side of Beaufort and the ice losses we see from gyre transport once that water is open?

     

    Settled weather across the basin will lead to a very sparse pack come mid Aug and we will then see just  how resilient this 'older ice' is as bottom melt takes its toll?

     

    I cannot see a repeat of last years weather patterns? Esp. if we have nino conditions messing with global weather patterns later in the melt season?

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    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

    I do not believe that we have any ice that could survive full sun all summer below 80n without melt out? Last year showed us all just how important weather and ice positioning is in the melt season. Cyclones over the pole keep the ice cloud covered and above 80n increasing it's chances of survival.

     

    Any HP over Beaufort invites the prospect of an invigorated trans polar drift and the melt of of the Pacific side of Beaufort and the ice losses we see from gyre transport once that water is open?

     

    Settled weather across the basin will lead to a very sparse pack come mid Aug and we will then see just  how resilient this 'older ice' is as bottom melt takes its toll?

     

    I cannot see a repeat of last years weather patterns? Esp. if we have nino conditions messing with global weather patterns later in the melt season?

     

    So where do you think its going end up ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    PIOMAS updated for March, and we're second lowest on record, just ahead of 2011.

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Further to BFTVs post above.

     

     

    So, again, the recovery in volume seems to have disappeared due to a warm winter. A priori this would imply that the 2014 melting season could go every which way, as 'high' as 2013, or as low as 2012, depending on weather and distribution of volume across the ice pack.

     

    This is something I will discuss in the 2013/2014 analysis that will be posted later this month. Just a few more weeks for volume to reach its maximum, even though the melting season has already started area/extent-wise. In the meantime I recommend reading this recent PIOMAS-related blog post by Chris Reynolds: What caused the volume loss in PIOMAS

     

    http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/04/piomas-april-2014.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    As far as extent and area go, we've had a fairly benign start to the melt season. One very notable feature has been the strong dipole anomaly and very strong winds aiding the transpolar drift, blowing right from the Bering sea down through to Svalbard.

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    As expected at this time of year, the dipole has reduced the level of extent loss by increasing the ice levels in the Barents and Greenland sea, but has also helped to export more of the thicker ice, potentially leaving the pack vulnerable to later warmth.
     
    Looking at the next 5 days, things look quite interesting, with a continuation of the general dipole pattern, a rather powerful storm during the weekend and the potential for some strong melt over the Kara and Bering sea into next week.
     
    First off, the weekend storm.
    It's already forming now, by the New Siberian Islands on the image below
     
    Posted Image
     
    It reaches it's peak intensity early tomorrow, with a central pressure below 960hPa as it moves toward the central Arctic.
     
    Posted Image
     
    It remains quite strong into Sunday. All the while, high pressure over the Canadian Archipelago and Beaufort means very strong winds blowing toward Fram, giving the export an added boost.
     
    Posted Image
     
    This storm is unlikely to causes too much noticeable disruption to the pack at this time of year, but it is something to keep an eye on.
    Shortly after, some anomalously mild air makes its way into the Bering strait region, with 850hPa values just below 0C and well above average.
     
    Posted ImagePosted Image
     
    After that, things fail to cool down much around the Bering Stait/Beaufort region, remaining relatively mild with increasingly slack or southerly winds, while several bouts of mild and stormy southerlies hit the Kara/Barents regions. The pattern below repeating itself during the week
     
    Posted ImagePosted Image
     
     
    Anyway, nothing truly exceptional coming up, but plenty of interest nonetheless.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland

    chaps as 850s dont always have a bearing on what is going on at the surface how about you add some 2m temp charts as well? for example It is half way through April and seeing some milder 850 inflows is actually not that uncommon... 98,03,04,07 at this time also had some warmer than normal 850s... the storm on the other hand may have more impact..  there are 2 days where the winds could encourge fram outflow... from what i can see... the multi year ice is actually more spread out up against the canadian side... so hopefully not too much multiyear will come out... looking at the latest multiyear ice charts... 

     

    some positives.. out there too.. you know just to add some balance to the posts... 2m temps still cold, at below average levels at the moment, down from a few high spikes.. nice to see..

     

    also the colder air looks set to stay over the arctic areas rather than spread out like other years--- 07 for example.

     

    anyway--- 

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Actually by the end of next week the temp anomaly is quite positively warm, The 12z GFS hasn't updated further than that. But I'll keep an eye on it.

     

    True that 850 temps don't always have a bearing on the surface temps, huge surface inversions being the obvious example, but given the current synoptics I wouldn't have thought they would have been far off.

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    chaps as 850s dont always have a bearing on what is going on at the surface how about you add some 2m temp charts as well? for example It is half way through April and seeing some milder 850 inflows is actually not that uncommon... 98,03,04,07 at this time also had some warmer than normal 850s... the storm on the other hand may have more impact..  there are 2 days where the winds could encourge fram outflow... from what i can see... the multi year ice is actually more spread out up against the canadian side... so hopefully not too much multiyear will come out... looking at the latest multiyear ice charts... 

     

    some positives.. out there too.. you know just to add some balance to the posts... 2m temps still cold, at below average levels at the moment, down from a few high spikes.. nice to see..

     

    also the colder air looks set to stay over the arctic areas rather than spread out like other years--- 07 for example.

     

    anyway---

    It also helps to look at more than just 80N when trying to get a balanced look the Arctic, in which case, we're still well above average.

    Posted Image

    At this time of year, it can be of benefit to look at temperatures at 925hPa, or if not available, 850hPa. The surface temperature is unable to rise much above the melting point of ice while ice cover remains in the Arctic, which is why you see the temperature capped at just around 0C during summer months on the 80N graphs. The 850 or 925hPa temperatures will therefor give you a better idea of the heat anomalies around the Arctic in summer.

    Anyway, no sign of the surface cold being bottled up that you mentioned, with the cold air spilling south into N. America again.

    T72

    Posted Image

    T120

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    chaps as 850s dont always have a bearing on what is going on at the surface how about you add some 2m temp charts as well? for example It is half way through April and seeing some milder 850 inflows is actually not that uncommon... 98,03,04,07 at this time also had some warmer than normal 850s... the storm on the other hand may have more impact..  there are 2 days where the winds could encourge fram outflow... from what i can see... the multi year ice is actually more spread out up against the canadian side... so hopefully not too much multiyear will come out... looking at the latest multiyear ice charts... 

     

    some positives.. out there too.. you know just to add some balance to the posts... 2m temps still cold, at below average levels at the moment, down from a few high spikes.. nice to see..

     

    also the colder air looks set to stay over the arctic areas rather than spread out like other years--- 07 for example.

     

    anyway--- 

     

    Here's a GFS loop for both T2m (F) and the T2m © anomaly.

     

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014041300/gfs_T2m_nhem.html

     

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014041300/gfs_T2ma_nhem.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Seeing as the ice is poorly formed there ( and already pulled of the coast) it will be interesting to see what happens? Will we just see a gentle edge toward Fram or will we see fragmentation , overwash and exodus???

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Posted Image

     

    Looking like we are about to see a rapid fall off of the ice extent? With the storm now pummelling north of Svalbard the ice edge in Barentsz will be being obliterated! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    Posted Image

     

    Looking like we are about to see a rapid fall off of the ice extent? With the storm now pummelling north of Svalbard the ice edge in Barentsz will be being obliterated! 

     

    That said, winds are projected to be more northerly again pulling down some very cold so this should stop the ice edge from heading northwards, coupled with a near constant northerly then the ice around Barents is a bit thicker although still unremarkable so can't see much "damage" being done. 

     

    My concern is the thinning ice in the Laptev sea, looks like "Laptev bite" could make its earliest ever appearance(?) and that is not good news obviously for the summer season. Got to say, the weather in the last week or 2 has been for me a bit worrying, don't really want too see these big deep low pressure systems, especially now we are seeing milder(although still fairly cold) air coming into the mix now.

     

    Extent figures are quite low but I'm not too concerned about this, this is mainly down to the below average ice on the Pacific side of the Arctic and lets be honest, having a higher spring extent on the Pacific side of the Arctic did no use for 2012 did it. My main concern would be how many and where the polynya's occur in the next month or so. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    We ought to remember the Baffin/Newfoundland ice here as this was impacted by the displaced PV and so had impacted extent/area. Being a peripheral area we ought now expect heavy losses there as we approach May.

     

    Nasty cracks opening up in the East Siberian sector too? Doesn't bode well for the ice there.

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    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

    We ought to remember the Baffin/Newfoundland ice here as this was impacted by the displaced PV and so had impacted extent/area. Being a peripheral area we ought now expect heavy losses there as we approach May.

     

    Nasty cracks opening up in the East Siberian sector too? Doesn't bode well for the ice there.

     

    This winter the multiyear ice makes up 43% of the icepack compared to only 30% in 2013. Although of course it was 46% in 2007

     

    What we need now is a 'cold' arctic summer

     

    Its colder now in the high arctic then it was 3rd week of February 

     

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

    This winter the multiyear ice makes up 43% of the icepack compared to only 30% in 2013. Although of course it was 46% in 2007

     

    What we need now is a 'cold' arctic summer

     

    Its colder now in the high arctic then it was 3rd week of February 

     

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

     

    I think the most notable thing about that chart is that the temperature was above the average during every single day in January, February and March. Time will tell what effect that has.

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    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

    I think the most notable thing about that chart is that the temperature was above the average during every single day in January, February and March. Time will tell what effect that has.

     

    November and December 2013 as well (We haven't had such a long run of above average temps going back to 1958 in the high arctic)

     

    The prospects for some decent ice volume growth (we had back in October 2013) of course didn't happen.

     

    I think its weather,volume then multi year ice (ocean currents/changes no idea ?)

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    I think it was a case of the tail wagging the dog Stew? With record amounts of energy in the basin last September the impacts on the Jet lead to the situation where the PDO was squished by the Alaskan ridge but the trough down over Eastern USA allowed the PV to spill down , repeatedly, over the eastern half of the US and allow warm air to replace it in the Arctic via the Alaskan ridge?

     

    Currently the dipole over the pole worries me. Should we see the type of summer that became common since 07' ( average summer) with a mix of dipole, strong melt and late season storms we could be in for a world of hurt come Sept. Should Nino bite then I do worry about the potential for 'warm storms' over Aug and Sept as warmed air masses flood over chilled meltwater Arctic Ocean.

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