Arctic Ice Discussion 2014: the thaw...

[stewfox]

We get very little open water north of 80N, even in the bad years. So in general, the air temperatures are held close to 0C as the extra energy goes into melting the ice. Using 80N can have its uses in its own right but as a representation of the Arctic, especially in summer, it's like using Scotland temperatures as a representation of the whole UK.

A better alternative is to look at temperatures at 925hPa or 850hPa in mid summer, and to look at the entire Arctic where possible, you know, for balance.

 

There is some open water above 80N but cant find graph/ links

 

Interesting summary re DMI

 

 

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/05/dmi-polar-data-shows-cooler-arctic-temperature-since-1958/

[BornFromTheVoid]

There is some open water above 80N but cant find graph/ links

 

Interesting summary re DMI

 

 

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/05/dmi-polar-data-shows-cooler-arctic-temperature-since-1958/

 

That's not really a summary of anything. It appears to be usual cherry picked spin that WUWT likes to promote. Consider these points:

 

What might the reasons be for the seeming decline in summer temps on the DMI graphs?

What are the trend like at different atmospheric levels?

Are there other sources of data, other than GISS, for Arctic temperatures that could be compared with?

What do DMI think of the decline themselves?

Have there been any studies looking at temperature trends in the high Arctic?

 

There are plenty more important questions that your link fails, most likely purposeful, to address. Some genuine scepticism is sorely needed in that article, and website as a whole.

[4wd]

That's not really a summary of anything. It appears to be usual cherry picked spin that WUWT likes to promote. 

 

Well hardly, it looks like pointing out that the temperature above 80N has been going down not up.

It seems more like cherry-picking to frantically search about to find a way to explain it as the wrong sort of colder - which must be somehow caused by warming.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Well hardly, it looks like pointing out that the temperature above 80N has been going down not up.

It seems more like cherry-picking to frantically search about to find a way to explain it as the wrong sort of colder - which must be somehow caused by warming.

 

 

 

I guess the model used by the DMI is one you agree with? I guess the dozens of data source changes used since 1958 couldn't possibly have an effect? I guess the numerous changes in resolution of the model, and thus change in grid point numbers and areas represented couldn't possibly have any effect? I suppose it's not worth looking at other data sources once you've found one that you agree with, or even asking the organisation that produces the data of their opinion?

 

Only a "climate sceptic" could compare asking question and looking at alternative data to (somehow?) frantic cherry picking.

[Gray-Wolf]

I think it's quite obvious from the ice itself that temps have been falling since the late 50's? How else could you see the total destruction of the paleocryistic ice in the basin and the smashing of it's volume , way below half of that in the 50's, coupled with the extent /area crash in the noughties without such cooling............ oh , hold on that reads like a pile of horse pooh!

[stewfox]

I guess the model used by the DMI is one you agree with? I guess the dozens of data source changes used since 1958 couldn't possibly have an effect? I guess the numerous changes in resolution of the model, and thus change in grid point numbers and areas represented couldn't possibly have any effect? I suppose it's not worth looking at other data sources once you've found one that you agree with, or even asking the organisation that produces the data of their opinion?

 

Only a "climate sceptic" could compare asking question and looking at alternative data to (somehow?) frantic cherry picking.

 

Why are global warming models going back to 1880 'good enough' to promote global warming but data sets going back to 1958 are not ?

 

The article wasn't 'cherry picking' just showing the data (which may have minor flaws but that's what we have).

 

Unlikely but if the IJIS ended at 6.5m this year would be start saying its not a 'good measurement' any more its all about volume. If volume went up would it be about the temps. ?

 

We can't dismiss data because it doesn't suit our agenda although I could argue decent global temps from Satellites came in cira 1998 not 1880 ?

I think it's quite obvious from the ice itself that temps have been falling since the late 50's? How else could you see the total destruction of the paleocryistic ice in the basin and the smashing of it's volume , way below half of that in the 50's, coupled with the extent /area crash in the noughties without such cooling............ oh , hold on that reads like a pile of horse pooh!

 

GW it was a observation nothing more, no one is suggestion 'recovery'

[knocker]

ASI 2014 update 2: here comes the Sun

 

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything of particular interest.

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/06/asi-2014-update-2-here-comes-the-sun.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

Why are global warming models going back to 1880 'good enough' to promote global warming but data sets going back to 1958 are not ?

 

The article wasn't 'cherry picking' just showing the data (which may have minor flaws but that's what we have).

 

Unlikely but if the IJIS ended at 6.5m this year would be start saying its not a 'good measurement' any more its all about volume. If volume went up would it be about the temps. ?

 

We can't dismiss data because it doesn't suit our agenda although I could argue decent global temps from Satellites came in cira 1998 not 1880 ?

 

It was completely cherry picked. Why did they not address any of the points I made before making out invalid comparisons to GISS and claiming cooling? Because they have an anti-AGW agenda, so they wanted to try and show cooling and place doubt in the GISS temperature record. It wasn't about summarising anything at all.

 

All models are questioned. The fact that we have numerous different ones in order to compare and contrast, that they are analysed, updated and improved shows that they are still being questioned.

Believing one model for 80N when it goes against all other data whilst dismissing most other models out of hand is cherry picking at its best. Asking questions and looking at other data when one models shows something at odds with most others is being sceptical.

[knocker]

Arctic Sea Ice Loss Goes Vertical: Area the Size of Nevada Gone in One Day

 

The white, reflective barrier protecting our northern polar region from the heat-amplifying effects of human-caused warming took a severe blow today. The National Snow and Ice Data Center’s sea ice area measure essentially fell off a cliff as values plummeted by more than 286,000 square kilometers. That’s an area of ice the size of Nevada lost in a single 24 hour period. A state-sized region flipping from white, reflective, cooling ice, to dark, heat-absorptive water.

 

 

 

 

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/06/03/arctic-sea-ice-loss-goes-vertical-area-the-size-of-nevada-gone-in-one-day/

[Gray-Wolf]

Hudson looks set to aid that precipitous drop knocks? So much ice has been drifted ( Feb/March?) into areas that we know must melt out , even in summers like last year if we look at where the ice was lost last year?, that the June cliff ( into early July) will prove a spectacle indeed?

 

I keep looking at the ice off Siberia and see traces of 'flour water' where ice is melting between those small ,rounded, floes and wonder how long this can maintain under the HP which is baking the land to its South???

 

Even the Major rivers look to be about to pour their warmed waters into the basin ( including the McKenzie?) so we will have that pulse in among the June cliff ( 2 weeks early?).

 

I'm still waiting for the last week of July to 'guess' at how bad it will become by Sept? Who knows, miracles do happen........

[oldsnowywizard]

Arctic Sea Ice Loss Goes Vertical: Area the Size of Nevada Gone in One Day

 

 

 

 

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/06/03/arctic-sea-ice-loss-goes-vertical-area-the-size-of-nevada-gone-in-one-day/

 

The whole link is written clearly by a warm fan... every other word is warm and has reference to eveything that can lead to ice melt.... in any case the chart posted does show a drop but not sure its anything other than normal at some point during the next few months to see this level of drop.. you just have to look at the 2012 red line to see an area the size of france go....just to note other sites dont show quite the same drop level... iJIS and NSIDC... but maybe it will show up on these tomorrow or in the coming days... Just to point out that DMI seems to show a nice below average kink in the upward line...The ice doesnt look too great around the fringes... only 4 months to go and counting... lets see how it fairs.. more low pressure and cloud needed i think...

[knocker]

The whole link is written clearly by a warm fan... every other word is warm and has reference to eveything that can lead to ice melt.... in any case the chart posted does show a drop but not sure its anything other than normal at some point during the next few months to see this level of drop.. you just have to look at the 2012 red line to see an area the size of france go....just to note other sites dont show quite the same drop level... iJIS and NSIDC... but maybe it will show up on these tomorrow or in the coming days... Just to point out that DMI seems to show a nice below average kink in the upward line...The ice doesnt look too great around the fringes... only 4 months to go and counting... lets see how it fairs.. more low pressure and cloud needed i think...

 

Reverting back to an earlier post could you explain to me how you work out the surface temps from the thickness charts. Serious question.

Edited June 4, 2014 by knocker

[stewfox]

The whole link is written clearly by a warm fan... every other word is warm and has reference to eveything that can lead to ice melt.... in any case the chart posted does show a drop but not sure its anything other than normal at some point during the next few months to see this level of drop.. you just have to look at the 2012 red line to see an area the size of france go....just to note other sites dont show quite the same drop level... iJIS and NSIDC... but maybe it will show up on these tomorrow or in the coming days... Just to point out that DMI seems to show a nice below average kink in the upward line...The ice doesnt look too great around the fringes... only 4 months to go and counting... lets see how it fairs.. more low pressure and cloud needed i think...

 

I assume its the 30% figure v 15% IJIS (which would play catch up) ?? 

 

Day 153

 

http://meteomodel.pl/index.php/arcticice

 

 

Interesting month ahead

Edited June 4, 2014 by stewfox

[Geordiesnow]

I assume its the 30% figure v 15% IJIS (which would play catch up) ?? 

 

Day 153

 

http://meteomodel.pl/index.php/arcticice

 

 

Interesting month ahead

 

Also to note that is sea ice area so slightly different to extent but I think the main message is that we are likely to be near or at the bottom of the pack for a little while yet I would imagine and the weather conditions don't look great for ice retention but could be an awful lot worse also mind. 

 

That sharp downward drop could revert back up slightly if it is an error because it is quite a steep large drop but its not going to make or break what the minimum will be in September. 

 

I also note someone says hopefully there be some low pressure systems up there but I think you got to be careful also because you don't want any deep lows to start breaking up the ice and there has been slight hints this may form around the Laptev Sea area but its only slight hints and its quite far away in forecasting terms. The only few positives with the current pattern is that some areas are quite cool and the set up in general is quite slack so at least the movement towards fram should be minimal at best. 

[Gray-Wolf]

I think we've seen enough low pressures since 2009 to know that they don't all result in 2013 type retention? Anyone hoping for a low pressure dominated summer had better add " in the correct place" to their prayer?

[knocker]

Next one I've seen forecast but not fiendishly low

Edited June 5, 2014 by knocker

[Geordiesnow]

I think we've seen enough low pressures since 2009 to know that they don't all result in 2013 type retention? Anyone hoping for a low pressure dominated summer had better add " in the correct place" to their prayer?

 

And one must remember, the low pressures in 2013 weaken the ice considerably with very low concentrations so close to the pole, personally, instead of one dartboard low dominating the Arctic, ideal conditions would be slack but lowish pressure therefore in the main cool air will dominate and cloud cover could be quite extensive. 

 

Signs of a pattern change for perhaps low pressure to start heading into more central regions of the Arctic, as I said earlier, the weather patterns at the moment are certainly not the best but by no means the worse either.

 

Next few weeks will be interesting to observe for sure. 

[Gray-Wolf]

Low drop on JAXA today? Is this a sign that conditions have calmed down and fragmented ice has relaxed back out into 'open water' squares?

[stewfox]

Low drop on JAXA today? Is this a sign that conditions have calmed down and fragmented ice has relaxed back out into 'open water' squares?

 

Would prefer to see storms now rather then 4/6 weeks time when the pack would be more vulnerable.

[Gray-Wolf]

Agreed stew! Short term forecasts look like a small di-pole could set up?

[stewfox]

Agreed stew! Short term forecasts look like a small di-pole could set up?

 

I cant see much comment on melt pond activity last summer, was it low ?

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Do you think a shattered pack and a cloudy May/June could have had an impact on that stew?

[Gray-Wolf]

We have inherited the shattered pack so we have probably been low on melt ponding this year too but has the open water between floes done a similar job?

[oldsnowywizard]

would imagine with a shattered pack at least there would be less melt water on the surface of the ice...could be one small positive... anyway.. nsidc now over last year... for how long who knows.. at least some cold areas, in fact according to DMI we should already be above 0 above 80degrees...(comparing to the average for DMI data of course)... they should be gone in two weeks and then we have late june and most of july where by the arctic should warm up above 0..how much this aids melt.. who knows ... it looks like warmer SSTS having more of an impact so far... low pressure systems for the next week or so should help stop solar melt a little bit... the one year ice will go pretty quickly in July.. we just hope that the multiyear fairs a little better..

 

stewfox... if memory serves there is a post by with Steve murr or one of the other regulars who described how to work out the 2m temps... 

[stewfox]

would imagine with a shattered pack at least there would be less melt water on the surface of the ice...could be one small positive... anyway.. nsidc now over last year... for how long who knows.. at least some cold areas, in fact according to DMI we should already be above 0 above 80degrees...(comparing to the average for DMI data of course)... they should be gone in two weeks and then we have late june and most of july where by the arctic should warm up above 0..how much this aids melt.. who knows ... it looks like warmer SSTS having more of an impact so far... low pressure systems for the next week or so should help stop solar melt a little bit... the one year ice will go pretty quickly in July.. we just hope that the multiyear fairs a little better..

 

stewfox... if memory serves there is a post by with Steve murr or one of the other regulars who described how to work out the 2m temps... 

 

One thing for sure the the DMI figure hasn't been this low (for time of year) since they started recording in 1958.

 

Its 'interesting' nothing else at present

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php