Arctic Ice Discussion 2014: the thaw...

[Gray-Wolf]

I take no comfort from the DMI80N temps stew. Last year saw a cold summer yet the Atlantic side of the basin's open water approached the pole? This year we saw a big push of ice toward the Atlantic sector and , I believe, we are seeing some of the costs of that shove in ice conditions across ESS/Laptev? Barents and Greenland are now beginning to show low ice cover and we should remember that this side of the basin , due to last years melt out, is all similar thickness and so once it goes it will all probably go? Hudson and Baffin still carry more ice than this time last year and all of that will go before the end of melt season.

 

Arctic weather is not following last years pattern and melt is not following 2012's pattern so we should be thinking of final figure in between those two years? Should this occur then should we dismiss the Arctic as a 'no concern' or will it be another awful reminder of the changes ongoing there? even though they were massively depleted we should maybe compare with 1980's extent/volumes to bring us some perspective? if 07' was such a massive shock to science should we still not see those ice levels as 'shocking' or do we now see them as 'no problem' as they are higher than 2012?

Edited June 15, 2014 by Gray-Wolf

[knocker]

 

June 15th 2014

 

Nothing in the Arctic is a dead certainty, but I feel it has already become clear that this year won't be as extreme as 2012 or 2013, even though there are still some similarities with the latter.

 

The most important of these similarities are relatively low temperatures, and slow sea ice area and extent decreases. Even though the Sun came out and shone on various parts of the Arctic, massive melt was muted. Perhaps this had to do with the lack of pressure gradients that make for winds and export the ice to lower latitudes, combined with a forecast for warmer temperatures that failed to materialize. There could be other reasons as well (snow on ice, fog), but these are difficult to quantify.

Either way, by this time 2012 had already started a never before seen drop on area and extent graphs that would make itself felt towards the end of the melting season. But 2014 is still chugging along, waiting for more Sun. And higher temps.

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/06/asi-2014-update-3-here-comes-the-sun-again.html

Edited June 15, 2014 by knocker

[stewfox]

I take no comfort from the DMI80N temps stew. Last year saw a cold summer yet the Atlantic side of the basin's open water approached the pole? This year we saw a big push of ice toward the Atlantic sector and , I believe, we are seeing some of the costs of that shove in ice conditions across ESS/Laptev? Barents and Greenland are now beginning to show low ice cover and we should remember that this side of the basin , due to last years melt out, is all similar thickness and so once it goes it will all probably go? Hudson and Baffin still carry more ice than this time last year and all of that will go before the end of melt season.

 

Arctic weather is not following last years pattern and melt is not following 2012's pattern so we should be thinking of final figure in between those two years? Should this occur then should we dismiss the Arctic as a 'no concern' or will it be another awful reminder of the changes ongoing there? even though they were massively depleted we should maybe compare with 1980's extent/volumes to bring us some perspective? if 07' was such a massive shock to science should we still not see those ice levels as 'shocking' or do we now see them as 'no problem' as they are higher than 2012?

 

Its far too early in the melt season to read too much into current developments and predicting end season values.

 

However I do think the continued deviation from the long term average to the Arctic on the west as can be seen in the current updates will be of interest. 

 

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

 

Interesting blog on melt ponds 

 

Whereas in 1996, the year with the highest September ice extent since 1979, the maximum pond fraction reaches only 11%, in 2012, the year with the lowest September ice extent, up to 34% of the sea ice is covered by ponds.

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/04/more-on-melt-ponds.html

[4wd]

The webcams are disappointing so far this year, one seems faulty, one has failed altogther (?) another has been caked in snow so long it makes you wonder if it's actually working.
WebCam-1

WebCam-2

WebCam-3

[Gray-Wolf]

I wonder about melt ponding too/ I worry that we came far too late to that issue and now this 'well fragmented' pack poses other issues? Does such a pack provide an environment for extensive melt ponding ( like the flat expanses of contiguous FY ice used to provide) or does melt now just exploit the late formed FY ice that 'glues' the ice together after a fracture event and spill into the ocean? Does this build more issues into the melt or is it a protecting thing?

 

Looking at the ice fragment at the end of the NWP, Alaskan end I wonder how much space That section of Beaufort now holds? We saw another bout of fracturing there in march so it appears the 'glue' has now gone allowing that channel end breakup to push out into the sea and leave open water in front of the channel?

[Geordiesnow]

Whilst the temps across the Arctic has been quite cold recently, it looks like things are going to quickly change in the next day or so across large parts of the Arctic with a double attack of very warm/hot air from the Russian and Canadian side of the Arctic. The warm air is coming with a result of increased pressure and whilst the details are still uncertain, the main picture does seem for high pressure to form just to the West of the northpole with winds going from West to East direction so whilst not quite a dipole, the more favorable conditions are certainly going to be replaced by more unfavorable conditions. 

 

Despite 2013 being quite a cool summer, there was some periods of very warm air entering the basin even then so its not all bad news by any means but the ice does seem in a slightly worse state this year and the warm/hot air coming from Russia is a concern as its heading into the worse possible place in all honesty. 

 

Will be interesting how extent figures will react to this change in the weather pattern and one is hoping this pattern won't last too long. 

Edited June 15, 2014 by Geordiesnow

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd also add that losses will be bolstered by Hudson and Baffin so things might not be as bad as the numbers say?

 

I am interested to see how the ESS reacts to the warmth from both the landfast ice and the mush beyond the open water?

[stewfox]

2014 , rinse repeat of 2013 ? With more multi year ice perhaps a small rise ?

 

 

Satellites detected high sea ice concentrations over the Arctic as a whole. This contrasts with 2006, 2007, and 2012 when broad areas of low-concentration ice were observed.

 

The toungue of second year ice that extends up toward the East Siberian Sea is considerably thicker, at 2 to 3 meters (7 to 10 feet) thick then previous years

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

 

A long way off being ice free in the summer

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm

Edited June 16, 2014 by stewfox

[keithlucky]

Normally the Arctic has 70days above 0c north of the 80th north parallel so far no day has got above 0c http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php.

[be cause]

Normally the Arctic has 70days above 0c north of the 80th north parallel so far no day has got above 0c http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php.

 

.. so we will see minimal melt in the basin this year then ?

[cheeky_monkey]

2014 , rinse repeat of 2013 ? With more multi year ice perhaps a small rise ?

 

SICE_combine_extent_SM_EN_20140615.png

 

 

Looks like good news so far

 

.. so we will see minimal melt in the basin this year then ?

wouldn't read too much into this at this stage...looks pretty standard stuff if you look at previous years.

[Geordiesnow]

Normally the Arctic has 70days above 0c north of the 80th north parallel so far no day has got above 0c http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php.

 

Temps have already started to increase and it looks to my eyes that at least upper air temps wise will increase further. Must admit, the set up did not look as "ominous" as perhaps first thought but the pattern change to a high pressure cell to develop just to the West of the pole and to become more extensive is still there but thankfully the heat from Russia is not as pronounced as first thought and cooler conditions looks like will return there fairly quick. It does not look like a full on dipole pattern too me(the centres of the high pressure/low pressure is in slightly different positions to a normal dipole) but I guess its one of those where you can the pressure pattern could be better for sea ice retention but it could of been quite a bit worse. 

 

At least the cooler conditions and favorable wind direction should slow the melt rate in the Laptev/East Siberian Sea areas somewhat but the Beaufort Sea looks a little more vulnerable now. 

 

As I said in my other posts, it be interesting how extent and area figures will respond to the pattern change. That said, we are most likely too see big losses in Hudson Bay and Baffin as the ice looks quite fragmented and vulnerable to melting so we have to bear this in mind aswell. 

[knocker]

Neat graphic

 

Tornado simulation? Nope... just the 35-year downward spiral in Arctic sea ice. pic.twitter.com/P1mRSfwDbz via @PaulHBeckwith @GParctic

[stewfox]

Neat graphic

 

Tornado simulation? Nope... just the 35-year downward spiral in Arctic sea ice. pic.twitter.com/P1mRSfwDbz via @PaulHBeckwith @GParctic

 

In need without the volume we just tweak the edges. Nice graphic

 

Update re Arctic melt ponds, it has put out its first open forecast for this September of 5.4 million square km, give or take half a million.

It compares with 5.35 million square km averaged across September last year.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27870459

Edited June 17, 2014 by stewfox

[4wd]

Playing about with colours and scales to make this look alarming.

http://s8.postimg.org/4i05puz5x/Jaxa_NH_SEI_Full_June15_2014.png

Piomas is only estimated volumes anyway.

[knocker]

A little infographic to illustrate our prediction in the context of #ClimateChange. Numbers are from our model. pic.twitter.com/QkliLKwVun

[stewfox]

A little infographic to illustrate our prediction in the context of #ClimateChange. Numbers are from our model. pic.twitter.com/QkliLKwVun

 

I think given so many of the 'experts' were so far out last year, realism has set in.

 

Far too much knee jerk reaction based on the poor 2012 with out any basis on fact.

 

The 'predictions' this year seem to be more clustered.

 

Remains cold up there

 

 

Edited June 18, 2014 by stewfox

[Interitus]

I think given so many of the 'experts' were so far out last year, realism has set in.

 

Far too much knee jerk reaction based on the poor 2012 with out any basis on fact.

 

The 'predictions' this year seem to be more clustered.

 

Remains cold up there

 

I'm sure similar remarks may have been made in the lower melt years after 2007 prior to 2012.

 

In case it hasn't been posted, here is a link to one of the authors discussing the melt pond paper-

http://www.micheltsamados.co.uk/september/

[Gray-Wolf]

First century break on jaxa today. The combination of heat across the region and residual ice in peripheral melt out ice seems to mean a number of days of high losses to come ?

 

The ice is very different to last years configuration so I do not think that we will see levels end up as high as that but just how low will it go? 07'?, 11'? 12'? lots of interest to come!

[be cause]

First century break on jaxa today. The combination of heat across the region and residual ice in peripheral melt out ice seems to mean a number of days of high losses to come ?

 

The ice is very different to last years configuration so I do not think that we will see levels end up as high as that but just how low will it go? 07'?, 11'? 12'? lots of interest to come!

 

I for one have seen no reason to alter my 'bottom end' prediction of 2012 like ice area by the end of the season . if we have a storm of 2012 proportions later this summer I will turn out to have been optomistic !

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi B'!

 

I'm keeping an open mind on the end results? To me I think the ice appears to be becoming primed for an early July 'cliff' with the poor  quality ice looking set to lose its battle over the start of the month? The rest of June seems taken up with peripheral ice melt and polishing off the last of the ice outside the basin? Forecasts have been a little variable with models pulling back from high melt scenarios as we get into reliable time zones but this period now seems to have settled things a bit? maybe the HP over the CAB/Greenland side has settled things? This set up means any LP's over the Russian side will aide disruption and export?

[knocker]

Seems likely HP for the near future.

Edited June 20, 2014 by knocker

[4wd]

Hi B'!

 

I'm keeping an open mind on the end results? To me I think the ice appears to be becoming primed for an early July 'cliff' 

Just like every other year then, only this year it is still quite a bit higher than some recent years.

http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area.png

[Geordiesnow]

 To me I think the ice appears to be becoming primed for an early July 'cliff' 

 

I'm sure you said the same prediction for June and it has not been anything too spectacular so far. 

 

The ice is slightly different to 2013, bit mixed news really, clearly the "Laptev bite" is bigger this year although it seems melting has slowed down here to some extent and the ice in Beaufort is more broken up but so far, there has been no real low concentrations near the pole and concentration in ice seems higher than last year but of course that can change fairly quick. 

 

In terms of the forecast outlook, high pressure looks like it will fade somewhatand for most of the Arctic it looks like very shallow low pressure systems could be more of a player but still looking quite mild across large parts of the Basin. 

[be cause]

I'm sure you said the same prediction for June and it has not been anything too spectacular so far. 

 

The ice is slightly different to 2013, bit mixed news really, clearly the "Laptev bite" is bigger this year although it seems melting has slowed down here to some extent and the ice in Beaufort is more broken up but so far, there has been no real low concentrations near the pole and concentration in ice seems higher than last year but of course that can change fairly quick. 

 

In terms of the forecast outlook, high pressure looks like it will fade somewhatand for most of the Arctic it looks like very shallow low pressure systems could be more of a player but still looking quite mild across large parts of the Basin. 

 

well, an area fall of 384 sq km in the most recent 48 hours suggests Grey Wolf is not crying wolf but rather underestimating the timing and scale of the collapse in Arctic ice . Thank goodness the sun is so 'cold' at the mo. and that we are not in El Nino mode .. otherwise there would be no ice left for a July 'cliff' .. b.c. 

p.s. where would we be if there really was any global warming ???