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Odds on being hit by a meteor!?


swebby
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  • Location: Mostly Watford but 3 months of the year at Capestang 34310, France
  • Weather Preferences: Continental type climate with lots of sunshine with occasional storm
  • Location: Mostly Watford but 3 months of the year at Capestang 34310, France

    It's never happened to me :D

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  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    This odds malarky is wrong, you can not genuinely put a mathematical figure on the likelihood of getting hit by a meteorite.

    It either happens or it don't... Most of this meteorites crash in the ocean and they are unheard of, as 70% of the earth'a surface is water, I was told by my physics teacher that even a meteorite the size of a marble could make a very large crater.

    But was this even found? I think this is a hoax.

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  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl

    This odds malarky is wrong, you can not genuinely put a mathematical figure on the likelihood of getting hit by a meteorite.It either happens or it don't... Most of this meteorites crash in the ocean and they are unheard of, as 70% of the earth'a surface is water, I was told by my physics teacher that even a meteorite the size of a marble could make a very large crater.But was this even found? I think this is a hoax.

     

    I'm wondering about the hoax thing myself.  BBC report is 4th of april, if the original story was 3 days before..........

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  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
    NASA scientist does the maths: skydiver's meteorite sighting really may just be gravel.
     
    It's late and I've done far too much work on this Norwegian skydiver rock problem. Here is my conclusion: the ballistics are consistent with it being a small piece of gravel that came out of his parachute pack and flew past at close distance. The ballistics are also consistent with it being a large meteorite that flew past at about 12 to 18 meters distance. It could be either one, but IMO not anything in between. Based on the odds of parachute packing debris (common) versus meteorite personal flybys (extremely rare), and based on the timing (right after he opened his parachute), I vote for the parachute debris as the more likely. My three plots are below. The first one shows how the measured and predicted velocity agree only at the two different distances mentioned above. The second assumes it was parachute debris, and shows the velocity of the debris as a function of time after being released from his pack. the third shows the separation between the skydiver and the debris as a function of time. Note that the debris passes the skydiver at 12 seconds after the debris was released, which is the same amount of time in the video from when the drogue chute was opened until the debris passed the skydiver. Other variations are possible by adjusting the unknowns, but the point is this: we can't rule out debris. Everything can be seen as consistent (in the ballistics) with it being a small piece of gravel about 3.3 cm in diameter that flies by at about 30 m/s absolute or 10 m/s relative to the skydiver. Maybe the optics of focus or other factors can rule out debris, but for now the fact that ballistics are consistent with debris makes me lean more to believing it is just debris.
     
     

     

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    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    This odds malarky is wrong, you can not genuinely put a mathematical figure on the likelihood of getting hit by a meteorite.It either happens or it don't... Most of this meteorites crash in the ocean and they are unheard of, as 70% of the earth'a surface is water, I was told by my physics teacher that even a meteorite the size of a marble could make a very large crater.But was this even found? I think this is a hoax.

     

    A marbile sized meteor would cause a large crater at speed of atmospheric entry which averages around 30,000-40,000mph - the crater is then generally 10x the object diameter. But a marble sized meteor moving through the atmosphere would quickly lose momentum through drag so it will only fall to the ground around terminal velocity. Only big meteors hit at high speed.

     

    Could be a meteor but the odds are miniscule so the gravel in the parachute idea seems more likely but who knows, amazing if it is!

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  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    A marbile sized meteor would cause a large crater at speed of atmospheric entry which averages around 30,000-40,000mph - the crater is then generally 10x the object diameter. But a marble sized meteor moving through the atmosphere would quickly lose momentum through drag so it will only fall to the ground around terminal velocity. Only big meteors hit at high speed.Could be a meteor but the odds are miniscule so the gravel in the parachute idea seems more likely but who knows, amazing if it is!

    It is definitely not a meteorite thats for sure. I disagree there, the air resistance would not be enough to greatly speed it down.. As its pulled down by the Earth's strong gravitational pull. Of course the larger the meteorite the larger the size.. But even if it was the size of a marble a crater would be evident even if it only had a diameter of 10cm. Meteorites are fairly rare.. Most burn up in the atmosphere, we are fortunate or we would be like the moon. On occasion some large enough.. Impact the earth, wouldn't like to be there to witness it :p Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

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